Sure, it might fly in the face of all reason and statistics to Billieve. The Bills are dead last in the league in point differential at -55. They’re also dead last in total team efficiency by a very, very, wide margin. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff
But I’m here to tell you that the Bills are right in the thick of the playoff chase. Reasoning and statistics would have told you this team sucked last year. They had a -60 point differential and they profile of a 6-win team but made the playoffs, broke the drought, gave the Jaguars a tough game, and smashed a few hundred folding tables along the way. These guys are winners. And that’s been the same story this year. Nathan Peterman has a negative career ANY/A, so it’s literally more effective to spike the ball every down then let him be your QB, so I’ll be throwing Week 1 out of my analysis. Since then the Bills pulled off the biggest upset in the NFL over the past 23 years and beat an AFC South leading Titans team. Both of those teams have beaten the Carson Wentz Eagles. The Bills had no right winning either of those games, yet they did it. Josh Allen is comically unprepared to be an NFL quarterback. The Bills only last week gave McCoy double digit carries. This team is terrible on paper, yet here they are winning games. They’ve played the 5th hardest schedule in the league up to this point, and are 2-3. The division leading Patriots have played the 28th toughest schedule. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other
The Bills have already survived the toughest part of their schedule. I very sincerely mean it when I say this season could not have realistically started any better for the Buffalo Bills. They now will play six of their last nine games at home. Their opponents over that stretch have a combined current record of 27-27. The Bills past opponents are a combined 11-8-2. In this year’s weak AFC, 9-7 could very well be all it takes for the Bills to make the playoffs, and they already have a tie-breaker over fellow 2017 wild card Tennessee. To get to 9 wins the Bills just have to win @ Texans, @ Colts, @ Jets, @ Dolphins, vs Jets, vs Lions, and vs Dolphins, in that order. Outside of those seven games, all against teams weaker than any opponent of the Bills’ so far this season, the Bills are vs. Patriots, vs. Bears, vs. Jags. and @ Patriots in that order. If the Bills win just one of those games against the Patriots, the wild card talk goes out the window, and the Bills will be all in on winning the AFC East. The Bears and Jaguars games are also perfect matchups for the Bills. The Bills neutralize the leagues two best defense by being terrible on offense anyway. Every defense looks like the ‘85 Bears against the Bills. Chicago and Jacksonville should honestly rest their starters because the Bills aren’t scoring more than 20 either way and these games will just come down to which offenses can muster out more miracles and come away with the win. In front of a Western New York crowd, I’d expect at least one of those two games to shake out in the Bills’ favor.
So looking straight ahead at the Bills’ schedule, they have games in Houston and Indianapolis. Neither game will be an easy win, but those are two very winnable games. In the meantime, the New England Patriots host their kryptonite in Kansas City on Sunday Night tonight, and travel to Chicago next week. Then, the two teams will meet in Buffalo on Monday Night Football, where it is entirely possible that the Bills will have the better record between the two teams. There may be nothing more scaring to Bills fans than a MNF game against the Patriots, but these Sean McDermott Bills aren’t the Bills of the 21st century so far. They’re probably worse. But they somehow keep winning. If Josh Allen struggles, they now have an actual NFL quarterback in Derek Anderson to turn to. The McDermott Bills play football just to spite common sense. If you have written this team off, don’t. The path to the playoffs is easy. If you’re sleeping on the Bills, IT’S TIME TO WAKE UP.
image credit: https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/2018/09/24/josh-allens-hurdle-lights-up-twitter-bills-roc/1408209002/