By: Nick Hornburg

Basketball is, undoubtedly, the preferred flavor in Ann Arbor right now. The 24-3 Michigan Wolverines, with John Beilein up to his usual tricks, are a Top 10 team in the country, with a real opportunity to hang at least a regular season conference banner, with a fairly decent shot at something greater. Yes, with Michigan Football ignominiously crashing out of their season, Michigan Hockey struggling to keep up, and even Michigan Softball having problems, Jordan Poole and company are undoubtedly the big men on campus at this moment.

And yet, basketball fans in Ann Arbor have another, less heralded, reason to be excited. While John Beilein’s men are running roughshod over much of the Big Ten, Michigan’s Women’s Basketball team has quietly rattled off seven wins in a row. The Wolverines currently stand at 19-9, with a 10-6 conference record, good for fourth in the Big Ten standings and well-positioned to scratch out an NCAA Tournament bid. With two games left in the regular season, Kim Barnes Arico’s squad is in about as good a position as they could be, especially considering how improbable this seemed a month ago.

With about 50 seconds remaining in the third quarter on a cold Sunday in January, Michigan had just completely melted down in the third quarter. It was a home game against Ohio State, the day before Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and a critical battle for positioning in the Big Ten standings. After coming out of halftime with the score even at 28, Ohio State jumped on a sleepwalking Michigan team and stormed out to a 46-34 lead after a triple by the Buckeyes’ Hungarian freshman, Dorka Juhasz (+1 to Daniel Thompson of WCBN Sports for helping the broadcasting crew out with pronouncing her hometown of Pécs). The Wolverines looked completely lost, and were staring down the barrel of a third straight loss.

Until they weren’t…

Michigan Captain Nicole Munger capped an otherwise dismal third quarter with a corner three that cut the deficit to single digits going into the fourth quarter. From there, the Wolverines floored the gas. Kim Barnes Arico did something that is rarely done in basketball anymore; she played 3 true forwards. An overloaded frontcourt of Hailey Brown, Naz Hillmon and Hallie Thome, along with a backcourt of Amy Dilk and Nicole Munger, played essentially the entire fourth quarter, and the Buckeyes had no answer. Michigan stormed the paint again and again, before Hallie Thome finally drew the score at 55 with 1:55 left in the game. Ohio State, however, still had one trick up their sleeve. Carly Santoro buried a three with 96 seconds left, putting the visitors back on top, 58-55. Munger answered with a triple of her own from the top of the arc 30 seconds later. Senior Hallie Thome, who had grabbed her 800th career rebound earlier in the game, then stepped up with a block on the other end, before missing the go-ahead layup with 10 seconds left. But crowding the paint payed off big yet again, as Naz Hillmon grabbed the offensive board, plowed through the restricted area, and put it in off the backboard, 60-58. In the ensuing delirium, OSU threw up a long, contested three that bounced harmlessly of the right side of the backboard. The ball then fell to Nicole Munger, who collapsed over the ball with 2 seconds left and was fouled by Janai Crooms. The Doylestown, Pennsylvania native hit two free throws to close out the game, 62-58.

This would prove to be a false dawn, as Michigan followed up the comeback win by losing 60-70 on the road to Indiana, before an ill-fated date at Crisler against Michigan State. Michigan set the pace early on, but the body blow of the season came in the second quarter. Nicole Munger came up with a steal and had a step on everybody save one Spartan going the other way. The captain drove hard to the basket, but couldn’t get all the way up against a bigger defender. Munger fell back to earth, landed awkwardly on her left ankle, and crumpled to the floor. The arena fell deathly silent, as the medical staff rushed out onto the floor. Three minutes later, Munger was carried to the locker room. The injury clearly registered, physically and emotionally, as Michigan played the next two quarters as if they had had the wind knocked out of them. They rallied again in the fourth quarter, but ultimately fell short, 73-77, and dropped to 12-9 on the season, losers of four of the previous five, with an impending home game against #13 Iowa.

From there, the Wolverines hit the ignition. In a game that was delayed by 16 hours due to apocalyptic weather conditions in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines upset the Hawkeyes in a track meet, 90-81. Junior Akienreh Johnson and Sophomore Deja Church each exploded for 19 points apiece, while Nicole Munger, with injury speculation ranging from a mild sprain to a dislocated ankle, gutted out 35 minutes. From there, it was a road victory against Wisconsin, 76-70. Disaster struck again against Nebraska in Ann Arbor, when in a situation eerily similar to Munger’s injury against Michigan State, freshman Point Guard Amy Dilk took a hard foul driving for a layup and landed directly on her right knee. The arena fell silent once again, as Dilk was also carried off after an extended amount of time on the floor. However, Michigan refused to die this time, as they proceeded to grind out a 67-61 victory, with Naz Hillmon and Akienreh Johnson combining for 32 points off the bench. A trip to Penn State followed, and it was Hailey Brown’s turn to go off. The sophomore from Hamilton, Ontario hung 20 points on the Nittany Lions in a 66-62 victory. Indiana was next on the chopping block, as Michigan exacted revenge on the Hoosiers to the tune of a double-double from Hallie Thome and 16 points from Akienreh Johnson en route to a 67-58 victory. A road trip to Illinois followed, and the Wolverines dominated from start to finish, in a 70-56 performance which saw Hallie Thome hit 2000 career points. Michigan returned home in the week, kneecapping Rutgers 86-76 in a game which saw Naz Hillmon score 21 points, Munger and Thome combined for another 33, and Amy Dilk make her return to the court.

And now here we stand. Michigan is 19-9 and have not lost in nearly a month. The persistent problems with turnovers, as well as the lack of reliable shooting, are still there, but this team has learned how to win even when they don’t play all that well. They’re starting to get healthier, as Munger was visibly hobbled on the court for a few games following her injury against Michigan State, but now looks to be back at full health. Amy Dilk, after missing two weeks with the aforementioned knee injury, is back on the court, although she is clearly still not quite at 100%.

The bench, which has been Naz Hillmon, who, it bears reminding, leads the team in scoring despite the fact that SHE DOESN’T START, and literally nobody else for much of the season, has gotten deeper, with Akienreh Johnson riding a hot streak through this seven-game run (she scored 3.7 points/game, on average, up to the loss to Michigan State, she has averaged 10.1 points/game since), and junior Kayla Robbins also chipping in a fair bit.

If this team has a silent contributor, Hailey Brown is it. The Canadian sophomore, save the aforementioned 20 point outburst against Penn State, rarely jumps off the score sheet, but has been impressively consistent in conference play, and she has emerged as a secondary three point threat, a boon for a team that can’t really shoot all that well from deep.

Eyebrows were justifiably cocked when questions were raised concerning the viability of this team following the graduation of Katelynn Flaherty; after all, one does not simply replace the best player in program history. While Flaherty’s absurd individual productivity is not being replaced, the Wolverines are still getting good performances from their ball handlers. Deja Church, while still struggling with inconsistency and a propensity to pick up a lot of fouls, has proven to be a passable ball handler, as well a decent, if inconsistent, volume scorer.

Coach Kim Barnes Arico took a risk when she gave the keys of the offense, which had been helmed by Flaherty for the previous three seasons, to a freshman with no experience who has never been the volume scorer Flaherty was, and now it looks like it’s paying off. Amy Dilk’s numbers don’t jump off the box scores, but it remains that without the former Top 40 recruit, Michigan’s offense cannot run the way it wants to. In a conference where most teams are coming out with Point Guards standing at 5’7” or 5’8”, the 6’0” Amy Dilk is a handful. Dilk’s court vision and ball handling has allowed the offense to open every bit as much, if not more, than they ever could last season, and Dilk’s length makes Michigan’s most effective play, a pass over the heads of two defenders to Hillmon/Thome in the post, borderline unstoppable. The vulnerabilities are still there: Dilk’s less-than-optimal shooting numbers render her over-reliant on attacking the rim which, while she is still quite good at it, being a 6 foot tall Point Guard and all, opens her up to more injuries like the one she suffered against Nebraska, and her size does impair her against smaller guards on the defensive end. But this offense is quite good in the post-Flaherty era thus far, and if Amy Dilk ever develops a consistent jump shot at the college level, it could be downright lethal in the coming years.

This team markets itself as “The Hardest Working Team in America”, and while declaring it for themselves might be a bit devoid of shame, there is no doubt that Nicole Munger has earned the right to declare it. No other player has imprinted their personal identity on the team the way Michigan’s captain has. The senior doesn’t get anywhere near the credit she deserves on offense, posting a double digit scoring average on the season, as well as leading the team in three point shooting (.349), as well as free throw shooting (.927), and she rarely turns the ball over. But the offense is not her calling card; rather, Nicole Munger is defined by being one of the best and most tenacious defenders in the conference, being second on the team in steals, as well as first by a mile in charges taken. Munger also goes to ground more than any other player on the team, also by a wide margin. Nicole Munger’s impact has also extended beyond the court, without doubt the emotional leader of this team, and this team has rallied around, and adopted, to a certain degree, their captain’s fiery character. If there was ever a person from Southeast Pennsylvania who encapsulated the phrase “Midwestern Values”, it’s Nicole Munger.

Hallie Thome’s place in the history books is already secure as one of the best female basketball players to ever come through Ann Arbor. The senior from Chagrin Falls, Ohio currently stands with 2029 career points (3rd all time, a mere 47 off 2nd), and 855 career rebounds (2nd all time, 72 off the top spot). While statistically, she has taken a step back in her final season, she is still about as effective a post threat as can be, despite not even being the best post player on her own team anymore (Naz Hillmon is better by every measure), and her block numbers are still quite good. Thome fought through injuries for much of the non conference season, but she’s been healthy for two months now, and despite some dreadful luck on the rim this season, she is still about as reliable as it gets.

Now here we stand. The Wolverines, winners of seven in a row, have the opportunity to exact revenge on Michigan State on Sunday in East Lansing, which would be their eighth consecutive win, as well as one hell of an exclamation on a potentially compelling tournament resume. From there, they close the regular season against Wisconsin, then March hits. Michigan, long considered fringe/first four out tournament team, has the opportunity to stamp their ticket to the big dance in these next two weeks. While we will learn a lot about Kim Barnes Arico (now the first Michigan Women’s basketball coach to win 150 games), it is apparent that wherever they end up, be it the NCAA Tournament or the WNIT, Michigan’s post-Katelynn Flaherty future looks like it’s going to be fun.

​

By Teddy Gutkin

By: Alex Drain

The Detroit Red Wings are bad. No one is surprised by this statement, as they have been in the basement of the NHL standings for the entire season and are likely going to finish with one of the five worst records yet again. But in the dark depths of this 2018-19 campaign for Detroit has been the shining star that is Dylan Larkin. The 22 year-old center has taken his play to a new height and is one of the NHL’s most silent budding stars, largely because he’s buried on a bad team. But with his standard numbers portraying him as an emerging 1C and advanced numbers portraying him in very positive light, I thought I would pen this post about how good Dylan Larkin is and how important he is for the Red Wings’ rebuilding project.

Larkin in traditional terms

If you are an old fashioned traditionalist, Dylan Larkin’s numbers will likely impress you. In a year where scoring has begun to rise substantially in the NHL again, Larkin has been a beneficiary of this, playing just shy of a point-per-game pace and on track to obliterate his previous career highs. He has 24 goals (already a career high) and 31 assists for 55 points in 59 games played for the Red Wings, which if he plays all of the Red Wings’ remaining 22 games would put him on pace for roughly 34 goals and 42 assists for 76 points in 81 games played. That would make him both the highest point scorer and goal scorer in a single season for the Red Wings since 2008-09. He’s played and scored in all facets of the game, with 6 PPG and 2 SHG this season, boosting his career best offensive campaign. Prior to this year, his career point totals had been 45, 32, and 63 and his goal totals had been 23, 17, and 16. Simply put, he has taken his game to new heights.

Larkin in advanced terms

The massive increase in Larkin’s quality of play has been exemplified in the advanced metrics as well, and this is where we can get into a discussion of where he ranks league-wide. Let’s start with possession numbers. For those who are hockey analytic illiterate, Corsi For% measures the percent of the time that your team posses the puck while you are on the ice. Relative Corsi For% compares that number to how your team does when you are not on the ice, as a way to quantify a player’s individual value, separating them from team success. Larkin’s Rel CF% is 8.52%, meaning that the Red Wings possess the puck 8.52% more of the time when Larkin is on the ice than when he is off it, which is a huge number. For reference, that number is third in the entire NHL among players who have logged at least 500 minutes this year. Another stat is xGF%, which stands for “expected goals for percentage” or the percent of total goals expected to be produced while you are on the ice that will be scored by your team. A player with a positive number means that when he is on the ice, his team is expected to score more goals than the opponent, or a good thing. Like Corsi, there is a relative stat here too, so we can compare players against their team. Once again, Larkin stands out. His Rel xGF% is 7.79, which is top 20 among all NHL players and top 10 centers.

For these stats, I like to use the relative versions because many players on good teams can rack up high possession and expected goal metrics because they are on a good team, as opposed to Larkin who is on a bad team. But when you separate a player from their team using the relative numbers, you get a better idea of who is driving success and who is mooching off of it. These stats point to Larkin as being a game changer for the Red Wings when he is on the ice vs. off it, which lines up with the eyeballs of anyone who watches Red Wings games on a regular basis. What’s even more impressive among all of this is how much ice time Larkin is logging too, now that Henrik Zetterberg has retired. Larkin’s 21:53 time of ice (TOI) per game is in the top 5 in the NHL among centers. Finally, Larkin is starting in the offensive zone on a shift 52.6% of the time, which is far less than that of other NHL star forwards like Auston Matthews (59.0%), Connor McDavid (57.0%), Jack Eichel (64.1%), Patrik Laine (61.7%), David Pastrnak (64.1%), and Sebastian Aho (56.9%). Generally speaking, you score more goals if you’re starting in the offensive end of the ice and all of those players are getting a significant head start in the scoring department over Larkin because the Michigan-native is shouldering a greater load of responsibility for his team.

Larkin, the highlight machine

Now this is the fun part, where we get to showcase Larkin’s offensive prowess this season through clips. Let’s dive in:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tz7TRekfkk4

This clip is simply one good pass, but it is an absolute dandy. Larkin is on a 3-on-2 rush with Nyquist and Hronek. He cuts out wide to the right while Hronek drives the net. Nyquist gives him the cross feed and Larkin has one potential play to find Hronek and he hits it right on the money. That pass had to be in the perfect spot and Larkin finds it and Hronek taps in the goal on the back door.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoc2mg7DrWo

This was maybe my favorite Larkin goal of the year so far. In a three-on-three OT game against Toronto, Larkin harasses Tavares and forces a giveaway as the Leafs were trying to attack. The puck goes right to Nick Jensen, who flips it up into the air and basically tells Larkin to go get it. Larkin turns on those unparalleled jets and absolutely obliterates Morgan Rielly, blowing right by him to grab the pass at center. D-Boss comes right in on net, going forehand to backhand and sliding it between the exposed legs of the goalie for the win.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0tj5plyutk

Another fun Larkin goal, this begins by a lazy defensive zone pass from #24 Derek Forbort. Larkin, who was starting to exit the zone at the time of the pass, comes zooming in out of nowhere to snatch up the loose puck. He then drags the puck to his right, undressing Drew Doughty, who goes down in front of the LA net, and then he weaves in on net to his left, beating the netminder short side for a beauty.

Larkin, the future

So let’s talk about Larkin and his future. His continued development has solidified himself as someone who the Detroit Red Wings are going to build a team around for the foreseeable future, which is significant. Just last summer, there was serious debate in Red Wings communities about whether Larkin would ever become a first line center and whether handing him the extension that the team did would be a mistake. And that was legitimate debate! His preceding three seasons did not really look like they projected a top line center. But his significant jump in production and play caliber has changed that discussion. The contract that the Wings handed Larkin in the offseason, a 5 year/$30.5 M deal, now looks like absolute theft. Larkin’s production is roughly on par with that of Artemi Panarin and Mark Stone (about a point per game), two players who are likely to get close to $9 M a year in the offseason, and they are both significantly older than Larkin and not centers. The Wings are going to be paying Larkin through the prime of his career anywhere from $2 to $5 M less than he’s really worth, depending on how his development continues to pan out.

The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn, a big analytics dude, ran his projections based on game score and found that at his peak (age 25), Dylan Larkin projects to be roughly the same caliber of player as the average top line center on a Stanley Cup championship team. What that essentially means is that Larkin is a piece who the Red Wings can build around and feel very comfortable that he is going to be good enough to anchor a contender. Most importantly, due to his contract, it gives the team more money to spend on their other pieces and potentially go after free agents. Larkin has made everyone on his team better and has proved himself to be the most essential piece of the Red Wings’ rebuild, upcoming draft picks and potentially Filip Zadina notwithstanding.

The last elephant in the room to discuss about Larkin going forward is the fact that he has never gotten to play with an elite scoring winger. While many of the other young players in the NHL who he is compared to have the luxury of stars on their line (McDavid and Draisaitl, Matthews and Nylander/Marner), Larkin is playing with second line wingers. Though Gustav Nyquist’s contract year explosion has no doubt helped Larkin’s production this year, it remains to be seen the type of numbers that Larkin could put up if he were given a major weapon to his side. Wings fans hope that that player is going to be Filip Zadina, or that they get lucky and are given the luxury of drafting Finnish winger Kaapo Kakko. How much better could Larkin be if he had a superstar player with him? Remains to be seen, but Larkin’s improvement alone has made that possibility a thought. Until then, the Red Wings’ rebuild has at least been given some direction.

Image Credit: https://assets1.sportsnet.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Dylan-Larkin-1-1040x572.jpg

​As a sold out Crisler Center amped up the volume this past Saturday afternoon, the Michigan Wolverines were ready to take on the Wisconsin Badgers. Since the Wolverines suffered their first loss of the season to the Badgers in January, Michigan fans have been eager to see this rematch on their home court. Holding a 15-0 win streak at home, the fans at Crisler, including 1991 Heisman Trophy winner Desmond Howard, were ready to cheer on the team for yet another thrilling game.

​Wisconsin took an early lead and held it to nearly the end of the first half as Senior forward, Ethan Happ dominated the court. Happ racked up 14 of the Badgers’ 27 points in the first half, along with two fouls. The Wolverines struggled early in the first half, shooting 40%, but got it together close to halftime to tie the game 27-27. Michigan was kept afloat by Junior center, Jon Teske and Sophomore guard, Jordan Poole with a combined 15 points. As the two teams headed into the locker room in a dead heat, the second half seemed even more daunting.

Soon after the teams took the court, Happ earned his third foul and was benched for a little more than nine minutes while the rest of his team worked hard to keep it close. During these crucial minutes, Michigan stepped it up and took the lead that they were able to maintain for the remainder of the game. This lead was possible because of the leadership of Senior guard, Charles Matthews who had 16 of his 18 total points in the second half. Alongside Matthews was Teske, with 10 points and Sophomore forward, Isaiah Livers who clinched the win with two made free throws and a dunk to seal the deal.
As the Wolverines continue with their season, it is clear that this team still has some inconsistencies to work out. With Freshman forward, Iggy Brazdeikis scoring only 2 points yesterday and not scoring any against Wisconsin in January, his part in these close games is illuminated. The difference he can make in these games is crucial if the Wolverines want to consistently beat big competition. Matthews did his part in the second half proving that the leadership this senior demonstrates is essential to getting Michigan the momentum they need to overcome tough opponents like Wisconsin.

Michigan advances their record to 22-2 and remains 1st in the Big Ten standings. The Wolverines continue their Big Ten conference play as they travel to Happy Valley Tuesday to go up against unranked Penn State at 8:30pm on BTN.

    On Sunday night, the Patriots and Rams offenses bored us all, as both teams failed to produce memorable plays and wasted possessions until the clock hit 0:00, winning Tom Brady his eye-opening 6th Super Bowl, only the second of which he was not the game MVP. This, of course, ties the Steelers for most Super Bowl wins by a franchise or player, and Brady tied the 49ers for the most playoff wins: with 30. His latest crowning achievement was in some ways weighed down by the fact that it was the worst of his nine career Super Bowl performances. Beyond a shadow of a doubt, Brady outplayed his opposing QB Jared Goff, a one time MVP candidate who has been waning since December. Brady’s performance has more than enough wiggle room between his previous 8 Super Bowl performances and Jared Goff’s. Against one of the league's most talented and inconsistent defenses, Brady went an unremarkable 21 for 35 for 262 yards with 0 TDs, 1 INT, and 1 sack for a 9 yard loss. The average NFL QB put up 22.4 completions on 34.5 attempts, for 237.8 yards, 1.7 TDs, 0.8 INTs, 2.5 sacks for 16.7 yards lost this season, and a passer rating of 92.9. Opinions on how much better or worse this performance was within the context of the game vary, but it’s clear the defenses were the heroes on Sunday, but the Patriots at least put up respectable numbers in the air.

    Some were so turned off by this performance that the bad idea that Tom Brady’s legacy has been damaged after throwing for 318 yards per game while only being sacked once this postseason en route to his 6th Super Bowl ring at the age of 41.
​​​

   
    A few of quick notes before I draw my conclusions: Joe Montana was the MVP in what was by far his worst Super Bowl performance. Terry Bradshaw had some much less efficient games, but he passed for over 200 yards in all the others. Yes, Bob Griese really did lose 29 yards on one sack, you can find it on YouTube. Interestingly, these quarterbacks went a combined 6-5 in their worst Super Bowls.

    So from this table, it’s clear that Joe Montana is the only 3+ time Super Bowl starter to play well in every single start. But after him, the competition drops off to Bradshaw, Aikman, and Brady. It really depends on what you value in a performance, and I honestly couldn’t give you a definitive answer unless I went back and watched all of those games. But when accounting for the era theses games were played in, I personally would rank Aikman’s as the second best worst performance, followed by Brady’s and then Bradshaw’s. Bradshaw did have the best passer rating and TD:INT of the bunch, but was ultimately a very small and mediocre part of the Steelers offense in a game were Fran Tarkenton made Jared Goff look good. Bradshaw only dropped back to pass 16 of 73 offensive snaps. In a game where Franco Harris rushed for 158 yards on 34 carries (Bradshaw did have 33 yards on 5 carries himself). All together, Bradshaw only accounted for 35% of yards gained, which is not in the same ballpark as Brady’s 62%.

     So if you think Brady’s legacy is always playing better in the Super Bowl than any other quarterback, Sunday hurt his legacy. But Brady never was the best Super Bowl QB, that title has, and always will be Joe Montana’s. In his 4 appearances Joe Montana threw 11 touchdowns to 0 interceptions and averaged 285.5 yards per game. But if he had to play in 5 more Super Bowls, would Montana have had just one average game? I don’t know, but I can say for a fact that no other quarterback, if not any football player ever, has always been ready to do what is needed to make his team win in every single game he plays, and that is Tom Brady’s legacy, and why in 9 Super Bowl appearances, he has never let the Patriots down.

photo credit: NESEN

By: Alex Drain

The Super Bowl is now over, with the New England Patriots being crowned as football’s champions. With it comes the close of the 2018-19 NFL season and the beginning of the offseason period before the 2019-20 season. This past season was an unmitigated disaster for the Detroit Lions, who finished at 6-10, firmly out of the playoff picture despite having had winning records in three of the preceding four seasons. The team went from mediocre to bad, despite being proclaimed by General Manager Bob Quinn last offseason as a team that had underachieved in 2017.

The Lions enter the offseason at a turning point of sorts, trying to find a way to claw back into relevancy and ideally, true contention. So what is the path to doing so? This article is a look into the top priorities that the team needs to address and how Quinn & Co. can go about addressing them:

Coaching (not anymore)

If I had written this article a few weeks earlier, coaching changes would have been top on the list. Instead, the Lions seem to be set with a coaching staff going forward after hiring former Seahawks and Vikings offensive coach Darrell Bevell as Offensive Coordinator and former Giants and Texans offensive coach Sean Ryan as Quarterbacks Coach. The former was seen as a mediocre hire, as Bevell has produced both excellent and terrible offenses over the years. Ryan was hailed as a tremendous hire due to his recent string of success with DeShaun Watson in Houston. Both coaches are new to the organization, which is probably a good thing given that the Lions’ offense has been directed by the same coaching tree for five seasons (Lombardi followed by JBC). Only time will tell whether these moves work out, but it’s hard to be worse than the stale and unimaginative play calling of Cooter that was so bad that many NFL teams were stealing Detroit’s playcalls pre-play. The first step to improving the Lions is kick starting the offense and at least the Lions seem to have decided on the coaches that they want to do that with.

Holes to fill

The Lions enter free agency with a lot of needs and a lot of holes to fill. In combination with the draft, the Lions need to focus on plugging the following holes:

• 2nd cornerback: Darius Slay had a down season in 2018 compared to 2017, but he is still a player who should be able to play at an above-average level for another 2-3 seasons. Opposite of Slay? Oof. Teez Tabor is a borderline bust at this point, Jamal Agnew is a nickel at best, and Nevin Lawson has gotten 17 tries and is just not a plus-NFL player. While the safety spot has solidified with Quandre Diggs and the emerging Tracy Walker, the #2 corner splot is a glaring hole.
• Guard: The TJ Lang experience is probably over. Lang was an excellent player in Green Bay but he simply couldn’t stay on the field in Detroit, playing just 6 games in 2018. His contract is the fourth largest on the team and the Lions likely have very little interest in forking over a ton of money for a player who isn’t playing. They can save $8 M to spend in free agency on a different player by cutting Lang and that is likely to happen. Thus, there is a spot at starting guard to fill.
• Linebacker: Jarrad Davis improved as a run defender and blitzer, but he still has issues in his all-around game and he needs help. PFF graded none of the Lions’ top four linebackers as higher than average and the team is desperately in need of an impact player here.
• Defensive End: It’s no secret that the Lions’ pass rush is bad. The days of 2014, when pass rush was a team strength, are over. While the Lions' sack numbers weren’t half bad (middle of the league), there were a lot of coverage sacks and the team lacks a dynamo pass rusher. With the constantly-injured Ziggy Ansah likely to depart in free agency, there is absolutely nothing at this position. While the Defensive Tackle position is now a clear strength thanks to the acquisition of Damon Harrison, the late season resurgence of A’Shawn Robinson, and the promising future of Da’Shawn Hand, defensive end needs a lot of help.
• 3rd wide receiver: The Lions’ WR depth proved to be a disaster late season. After the Golden Tate trade and Marvin Jones’ injury-plagued season set in, Detroit was exposed to have basically no depth at the position and Kenny Golladay was the only target. Jones will be back and healthy and he and Golladay are a good tandem, but the Lions will need a real slot receiver and in theory, a viable 4th option, too

Free Agency

So how can the Lions fill these holes in free agency? The good news is, they have a lot to spend. The Lions will rollover $6 M in cap from this season, meaning the final cap will be around $195 M. If every contract on the book + draft picks are signed, the Lions would have $22 M to spend, but in reality, they will likely have much more than that. The Lions can gain $16 M in space by cutting TJ Lang and Glover Quin, two moves that are highly likely to happen, and they are also committing $4+ M to Theo Riddick and $5+ M to Nevin Lawson, two players I could easily see being cut. Point is, they could have close to $45 M to spend in free agency, so they have the room to go after big names.

Who are the targets?

• Trey Flowers, DE: It’s unknown if New England will let their best pass-rusher get away, but if he hits the market, you have to think the Lions will be hot on his trail. He’s a guy who is highly versatile and plays a ton of positions and oh, he plays on New England. That’s exactly the type of pedigree and player the Lions have tried to get and he’s already played for Matt Patricia, and Bob Quinn helped draft him.
• Anthony Barr, LB: A guy who the Lions wanted to draft back under the old regime is likely going to hit the free agent market this spring. His career with the Vikings never really made him into a star, but he’s a respectable NFL player who isn’t going to cost a lot and would definitely be an upgrade over Detroit’s current LB unit.
• Kareem Jackson, CB: There is concern over age for the soon-to-be 31 year-old corner, but he’s an above-average corner who would be a good and not-too-expensive option on a short-term deal to be a temporary fix at a positional weakness.
• CJ Mosley, ILB: If the Lions want to break the bank and shell out a bunch of the money they have to a linebacker, CJ Mosley is the guy. A multi-time Pro Bowler for Baltimore, Mosley would be a huge upgrade to the LB corps and give Jarrad Davis some help.
• Bryce Callahan, CB: Callahan is a 27 year-old corner who has been very good- and steadily improving- over the last several seasons in Chicago. Set to hit the free agent market, Callahan is PFF’s 2nd best corner on the market after Ronald Darby. Younger than Jackson, he could be a longer-term solution to the corner position.
• Rodger Saffold, G: Saffold is on the older end, but he was great for Los Angeles this year and is a run-blocking specialist. For a team that is trying to build offensively around the rushing game, Saffold would be a great short-term fix at right guard.
• Cole Beasley, WR: One of the NFL’s best slot receivers, Beasley is a solid option to fill the void left after Golden Tate was traded away.

There’s also a list of a bunch of guys who the Lions would love to shell out money for but will likely all be franchise tagged, like Dee Ford, JaDeveon Clowney, DeMarcus Lawrence, etc.. With the amount of money the Lions have to spend, they have the ability to mix and match and perhaps shell out big money for a Flowers or Mosley, and still have cash to plug one more hole with a solid player, like a Callahan at corner. The Lions have been very timid under Bob Quinn, frugal and refusing to go after big names. With money to spend and perhaps a feeling of urgency, that could change this offseason.

Draft

By virtue of their poor season, the Lions have the ability to pick with the #8 selection in the NFL Draft in 2019. The most commonly mocked players to the Lions fill their needs. Greedy Williams, a corner from LSU would be a long-term solution across from Darius Slay. Devin White, a linebacker from LSU, could form a fearsomely athletic young LB corps with Jarrad Davis. Clelin Ferrell, a defensive end from Clemson, would give the Lions the pass-rushing threat they need. Whichever way the Lions go with their top pick, it is likely to be defense, and it is likely to be someone who directly fill their needs. In the second and third round, they could pick a guard or WR or whatever they didn’t address previously to try and round out the roster.

Conclusion

The Lions have a lot of work to be done in the offseason. The best piece of optimism entering the offseason is how much the run defense improved in the second half of the season, after Harrison arrived from New York and A’Shawn Robinson finally began to reach his monstrous potential. In the first 8 games, the Lions’ run defense allowed 1,140 yards, or an atrocious 142.5 per game. In the final 8 games, the Lions’ run defense allowed just 621 yards, or 77.63 per game. That luxury makes it so the Lions don’t have to build down the middle and can focus at the still very large issues they have at pass rush (DE and OLB), as well as at corner. Any combination of free agents and elite talent in the draft have the potential to improve the team and its time that they build like they want to compete.

On the offensive side, most of the improvement will have to come from the players and the coaches. Yes, finding another WR or two and a guard will be helpful, but most 2019 success is incumbent upon the players and coaches themselves. In 2017, the offense was 7th in scoring and 13th in yards per game. This season it was 25th and 24th, respectively, despite having basically the same roster and same offensive coaching staff. That has to improve in 2019 and there’s not a lot that Quinn can do in free agency or the draft to fix it. It’s up to Bevell, Stafford, and others. But on the defensive side, this is where Quinn needs to prove his worth.

Image credit: http://image.mlive.com/home/mlive-media/width600/img/lions_impact/photo/23561900-standardjpg-dfbc37950e425093.jpg