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Post Free Agency 2022 NFL Mock Draft

4/4/2022

By William Gregory

You can read the first post here and the second post here.

#1 - Jacksonville Jaguars - EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
Mock Draft 1: EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
Mock Draft 2: OT Evan Neal, Alabama
Since the combine, Aidan Hutchinson has been the closest to a unanimous number one selection as any other player in the class. Further contrasting Hutchinson against his draftmates, there aren’t many questions regarding his ability, drive, or fit. Hutch can pull off any move, he is a relentless worker, and he can play seamlessly in any defensive alignment. He would instantly become the Jaguars’ best defensive player following this selection, and be the 4th Michigan player drafted first overall.

#2 - Detroit Lions - EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
Mock Draft 1: EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
Mock Draft 2: EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
The Lions are going to take a pass rusher if they stay at number two, it’s just a decision of who falls to them. At this point, it seems that Hutchinson going number one is as close to a lock as it gets. Throughout the early draft process, differing reports and mock drafts have come out that show a negative opinion of Thibodeaux. It seems that it may be, in part, a series of smokescreens by teams to get Thibodeaux to fall to them. The Lions aren’t fooled. Brad Holmes and six other Lions staffers attended Oregon’s Pro Day last week. He is the pick if they don’t trade back.

Michigan Wolverines Men's Lacrosse Falls to Top-Ranked Maryland Terrapins on Military Appreciation Day

4/2/2022

Joshua Tenzer

On military appreciation day and in front of the largest crowd of the season, the Wolverines (7-4) fell to the #1/#1 Maryland Terrapins (9-0) by a score of 20 to 12. Ryan Cohen had four goals and one assist for the Wolverines and Isaac Aronson had three goals and two helpers. Four players for the Terrapins tallied a hat trick for the team in red (Murphy, Khan, Donville, and Wisnauskas). Coach Kevin Conry falls to 0-6 against the team he was a defensive assistant for before becoming the second head coach of the Wolverines men’s lacrosse program.

Through one quarter, in a game between two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation, the defense was the biggest factor. Michigan played a tight and physical style of defense that forced the Terrapins to take inaccurate shots that sailed wide of the net more often than not. On the shots that were on target Shane Carr, who leads the Big Ten in save percentage, was able to come up big for his team with two strong saves within the first five minutes to keep the Terps off the board. Carr struggled after the first intermission allowing two goals within 30 seconds of each other twice in the second frame and as the second quarter carried on, the Terrapins continued to expand their lead over the maize and blue. Maryland started to have an easier and easier time getting players open and in all alone against Shane Carr. Too often the Michigan defense allowed players near the crease to have all the time and space they needed to make a move that Carr bit on and lob the ball over the goalie to dent the twine.

Logan Wisnauskas (1) left open by the Michigan Defense

On the other side of the turf, the Maryland defense put on a clinic in defensive positioning. Ajax Zappitello and BJ Burlace were always exactly where they needed to be. Whenever the Wolverines looked to move the ball there were always players in red in the way. Maryland seemed to fill every passing lane and cover every shot, keeping the shot clock ticking and making the Wolverines take rushed shots that were easily blocked by the defenders in front of the crease. Two of the Wolverines' four goals came with a single-digit number on the shot clock and if it weren’t for the strong shots of Isaac Aaronson and Josh Zawada’s ability to work a strong transition game, the Wolverines would only have two goals going into halftime. Towards the end of the second quarter, the Wolverines were able to convert a few hard-earned chances into goals and trailed by only four before the long break.

Michigan was able to take advantage of both of the man-up opportunities in the first half. With one less defender for the Terrapins, their style of defense faltered. There was always an open pass for the attackers to make across the crease and with quick and snappy ball movement, the Wolverines were able to make the most of the Terrapins’ few lapses in discipline.

Coming back to start the second half, Maryland looked more like the unanimous #1 team that they’ve shown themselves to be during the last 7 weeks where they’ve sat atop the polls. Two goals by John Geppert within the first 30 seconds of the half pulled Maryland up 11-5 over the Wolverines and three minutes later Logan Wisnauskas, the leading scorer for the Terrapins this season, completed his hat trick which is his 6th of the season. After today, Wisnauskas extends his goal streak to 14 games going all the way back to last season with Michigan being the last team to keep him off the goal sheet in the Big Ten Tournament first round. Despite the Wolverines keeping the game close in the first half, Maryland ran away with it in the third and fourth frames.

It seemed that whenever the Wolverines were able to get some momentum going, the Terrapins would come right back and force the Wolverines on their heels. For a team like the Wolverines that thrive on dictating the flow of the game and having their goalie make the stops when they need to, being forced to make a comeback as time slowly elapsed and put more pressure on every shot in addition to Shane Carr’s worst game of the season was an equation that spelled trouble for the home team.

The bright spot for the Wolverines in this game was Ryan Cohen. Cohen tallied four goals and an assist including the Wolverine’s first of the game, a beautiful goal in tight on the right post as the shot clock expired. Cohen, just a freshman, has been putting in the work to make himself better and better week on week and is quickly becoming an integral part of the Michigan starting trio of forwards. When asked post-game about Cohen’s practice habits and his improvement, coach Kevin Conry said that Cohen is a “low-key kid, and getting him to open up more and talk” and grow his relationships with the coaches and his teammates has helped improve his game on the field. In addition, the team as a whole has no quit in them. Even down by nine with 5:45 left, the Wolverines kept playing hard physical defense and worked for every shot they wanted to take. It led to a beautiful goal scored by Gavin Legg (who had himself a solid defensive day in front of his own net) that he shot from in close while being knocked down and drawing a penalty.

Ryan Cohen (40) fighting for a ground ball that would be scooped up and scored by Josh Zawada (9)

The Wolverines will continue the season at Penn State on Friday at 6:00 pm and they will return to the U-of-M Lacrosse Stadium for Senior Day and their home closer of the season against Rutgers at noon on April 16th. That game will be broadcast on the WCBN youtube channel.

All pictures taken by WCBN staff

Student Leaders Petition Athletic Department to ‘Expand the Maize Rage’

3/8/2022

Maize Rage “Superfan” Zach Linfield advocates for expanding the maize rage during a game vs Rutgers on February 23. Photo used with permission from Marc-Grégor Campredon / MGoBlog

By Adam Bressler, WCBN Sports

Among a conference full of intimidating atmospheres for visiting basketball teams, players and students agree that Michigan’s Crisler Center is sorely lacking. In an online petition scheduled to be published later today, several student leaders have a proposed fix: “Expand the Maize Rage.”

Currently, Michigan students are only allocated a limited amount of seats in the lower bowl of Crisler Center. A vast majority of the student section (dubbed the “Maize Rage”) is located in the upper bowl of the arena, isolated and far from the action. Subsequently, the Michigan men’s basketball team is unable to fully harness the energy of the students during crucial moments of games. The upcoming petition created by leaders of the Maize Rage urges the Michigan Athletic Department to expand the number of seats allocated to the student section within the lower bowl.

A draft of the petition obtained by WCBN Sports raises two demands for administrators in the Athletic Department. First, it writes that “the Maize Rage needs to be expanded to allow more students into the lower bowl,” although it does not mention specific areas where the student section should expand to or how many students should be added to the lower bowl. Second, the petition asks that student leaders of Maize Rage “get a seat at the table when it comes to making this decision.” The petition claims that these requests, along with a modified student ticketing strategy, will “make the Crisler Center one of the toughest environments to play in the whole country.”

Everyone Cares About the Draft Except for the LA Rams: 2022 NFL Mock Draft

3/8/2022

By William Gregory

You can read the first post here.

The Los Angeles Rams do not need to read this article. They have not had a first round selection since picking Jared Goff 1st Overall in 2016. General Manager Les Snead has made a living off of trading his top picks for top playmakers, and they’ve finally won it all. Who knows if these other GMs have the ability to do that. This is the second mock draft of the offseason, and two more will be written before the Jaguars are actually on the clock. The top-five is still in flux and we should be in for a bunch of surprises. Let’s see who the Jags pick in the second WCBN 2022 NFL Mock Draft.

#1 - Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Evan Neal, Alabama
Previous Pick: EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
Through the pre-draft processes so far, the rumor is that the consensus of NFL front offices have soured on Kayvon Thibodeaux’s floor as an everyday player. Alabama’s Evan Neal has frequently been mocked as the first pick since Doug Pederson was hired as Jacksonville’s head coach on February 3rd. Neal will become Trevor Lawrence’s personal bodyguard at left tackle. His massive frame will also allow Travis Etienne to successfully return to form in the outside running game following his season-ending injury last season. Doug Pederson returns to the NFL with a franchise QB and blindside blocker.

#2 - Detroit Lions - EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
Previous Pick: EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
Brad Holmes is a West Coast guy and has picked up a couple great West Coast players, Aidan Hutchinson is still the pick. It seems Hutchinson’s motor and work ethic has leapfrogged Thibodeaux on many boards. Only time will tell if the two players’ intangibles will have a greater impact on their actual play on the field, but Hutchinson’s fit on the Lions remains unquestioned. The Michigan kid’s versatility inside and outside can be instantly plugged into the Lions defensive front that has lacked superstar talent since Jim Caldwell was head coach.

After Wild Card Weekend: Top 24 NFL Mock Draft

1/25/2022

By William Gregory
   Following the all-new Super Wild Card Weekend, 24 teams have had their playoff hopes dashed, and their fans of those teams have turned most of their attention to the 2022 NFL Draft. This year’s draft offers a lot of intrigue in that there is a large contingent of elite defensive talent, and a relative lack of slam dunk quarterbacks, though teams have proven they will reach for average signal callers. This mock draft will be the first in a series that will run all the way up to draft night. We’ll track progress throughout, and after the draft, the results of the final predictive mock draft will be reported and posted. The Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock.

#1 - Jacksonville Jaguars - EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
   The difference between the top two edge rushers in this class is based largely on opinion. Thibodeaux and Hutchinson are both incredible players, and predicting the direction of the Jacksonville Jaguars is similar to a 50/50 chance. However, looking at Jacksonville general manager Trent Baalke’s draft history with the 49ers shows that he has generally avoided taking Big Ten prospects with Top 100 picks and has chosen many players from the West Coast. Two of those players were Oregon defensive linemen drafted in the first round: Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner. It’s plain to see that Thibodeaux’s talent will get him drafted in the Top 2 picks, but Trent Baalke’s draft history offers insight into how they will operate this April.

#2 - Detroit Lions - EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
   There may not be a better fit in this draft than Aidan Hutchinson taking the short drive from Ann Arbor to Ford Field. While Hutchinson is built more like a 4-3 defensive end and not an outside linebacker, his pass rushing skill allows him to be played anywhere on the defensive line. Not only does his relentless motor gel with Dan Campbell’s never say die mentality, it’ll keep him from taking plays off when Detroit inevitably collapses to rip its collective fanbase’s heart out. The Lions add a much-needed, impact defensive playmaker.

Andrew Miller's Mid Season Mock Draft 1.0

11/15/2020

By: Andrew Miller, Resident Draft Expert
1. New York Jets: Trevor Lawrence QB, Clemson
   No surprise here. The Jets probably shouldn't have to give up on Sam Darnold this quickly but the temptation might be too hard to pass on Trevor Lawrence. This may be the most slam dunk can’t miss prospect at the position since Andrew Luck. He is that good and most importantly brings an exciting face to NY that they haven’t seen in a while. However, the Jets need to spend big on lineman this Free Agency to help Trevor Out.

2.Jacksonville Jaguars: Trey Lance QB, North Dakota State
   The Jaguars should count themselves lucky that Trey Lance would fall to this spot. In what seems like a race for the top 3 picks to grab a QB, the Jaguars get my favorite QB here. No joke, I am more excited about Trey Lance than Trevor Lawrence. Why? Because I have not seen excellence be pulled off so effortlessly in a college football quarterback my entire life. Sure, he played at NDSU but that really doesn’t matter to me very much. I saw a guy who would make the most amazing throws look easy and routine. The man never threw an INT until his last game at NDSU. Trey Lance in my opinion has Patrick Mahomes upside and I don’t say that lightly. He has a bazooka, an uncanny ability to throw on the run while creating his offense and easily noticeable football IQ. The Jaguars should run to the podium if they are allowed.

3.Dallas Cowboys: Justin Fields QB, OSU
   This has been a pathetic year for the Cowboys and clearly Jerry does not want to pay Dak Prescott. If this is possible for the Boys they should count their lucky star because they get a true special franchise QB here as well. I have Fields as my No.3 QB but that is to say nothing of his play. He is special and shows special arm strength and arm talent up there with Lance and Lawrence, perhaps even better than Lawrence. He is obviously very mobile as a quarterback. The only area he could stand to improve is possibly throwing on the run but honestly that is only because the people ahead of him are better than him at that. You’re still likely getting a possible All-Pro QB here and the Cowboys might just have their new signal caller.

4. New York Giants: Penei Sewell OT, Oregon
   The Giants miss their shot on replacing Danny Dimes but that may be a blessing in disguise. One thing is very obvious watching Giants football. Their O line STINKS. They just spent the No.4 pick on a Tackle and they are going to do it again here. Except this time they get a sallworth at the LT position which allows Andrew Thomas to move to his natural RT position. Sometimes in football there are no quick fixes and you need to sure up a foundation at the line for a significant rebuild.

5. Washington Football Team: J’Mar Chase WR, LSU
   At this point in my mock the Football team misses out on the big 3 and while I think Zach Wilson is a good get here, they may want to consider the best WR in the class. You wanna ta;kabout elite size and speed, well he’s right here. People his size should not be able to move the way he can. If he was in the draft last year he would have been WR1, that’s how good he is as a specimen. It might be too much to pass up.

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Micah Parsons LB, Penn State
   The Chargers are an interesting team because they really only need a couple of positions. While Kenneth Murray has been a revelation at LB for them, it might be too much to pass up drafting Micah Parsons. Parsons is the closest thing as a prospect to Luke Kuechly that you may find from the draft. He is special in coverage with an elite nose for the ball on top of his physical gifts. They run the Seattle Scheme in LA so Parsons and Murray can be their version of Wagner and Wright. I don’t know what it is about him going to Penn State but I think that may be a plus as well given their reputation. It may be too high to take one of the other lineman in this draft so the Chargers should get their elite prospect when they can.

7. Miami Dolphins (via HOU): Gregory Rousseau EDGE, Miami
   The Dolphins are an emerging defense but they are missing a true edge rusher. Kyle Van Noy is great but he is not scary on his own. Rousseau is not only a great player in Miami’s backyard but he is a specimen at his position. This isn’t Myles Garrett or Clowney but this is a lot like Bradley Chubb as a prospect with more twitchy athleticism. He is a big boy with special bend and power. He reminds me a lot of Khalil Mack actually coming out of Buffalo. I love this player and he might just be the perfect pick for Miami.

8. Cincinnati Bengals: Alex Leatherwood OL, Alabama
   The Bengals have made one thing clear all season. They need SIZE. They are pathetic on the offensive life and Joe Burrow is routinely running for his life out there and even worse, The run game routinely has nowhere to go at the snap. I don’t care what player is here. The Bengals should take the biggest, baddest mauler they can find and be happy with it and it seems my partner agrees.

9. Carolina Panthers: Creed Humphrey OL, Oklahoma
   The Panthers spent every single pick last year trying to set a foundation for their Defense. They should try to do the same here with their offense. There is nothing that is becoming increasingly important than good interior line play so drafting Creed Humphrey should help what seems to be one of the worst inside running teams in the sport.


10. Atlanta Falcons: Patrick Surtain II CB, Alabama
   The Falcons would get an absolute steal here if they were able to land Patrick Surtain here. A true lock down corner I may go as far out to say he is the best CB prospect I have seen since Ramsey (I know I said that about Okudah and Henderson last year but bear with me). Suratin already projects as a true man to man breaker with top end speed and an ideal height at 6’2”. I think he is one of the safest bets in the draft and the Falcons would be lucky to get him here considering they have been trying to fix their terrible secondary since the Super Bowl.

11. Detroit Lions: Shaun Wade CB, OSU
   The Lions are a dumpster fire at the current moment. They are kinda inept at all non offensive positions. For a team that is looking for some legit talent on defense why not get Jeff Okudah his just as special college teammate. It makes sense. If I were the Lions I would take advantage of the strength of the CB class this year and get a second lockdown CB next to Okudah and build from there.

12. Minnesota Vikings: Zach Wilson QB, BYU
   Kirk Cousins contract is up and it seems to coincide quite nicely with the end of the contending era of the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikes need to look for the future and build around their surprisingly young offense. Zach Wilson is a guy I expected not to like when I turned on the tape and boy was I wrong. He has elite mobility and arm flexibility that just pop off the screen. I would say outside of Lance he might be the most natural passer on the run in this draft. I think he is a perfect QB to lead the Vikings into the next era.

13. New England Patriots: Kyle Trask QB, Florida
   Bill Belichick is clearly ready to move into the next era of Patriots football and honestly that starts with the QB. Bill needs to get this right and normally I have a policy when it comes to drafting QBs: don’t draft one that you don’t believe will become an elite QB. It says something about this class when I have at pick 13 my fifth QB who I do believe can be a star in this league along with the previous 4. Trask is a big dude who has spectacular touch to match his clever mobility. Like Wilson he is most special outside the pocket and while his arm talent isn’t like Wilson’s (few are) he does have the ability to make almost any throw from any angle and his size allows him a nice base to shed off would-be rushers. This is the guy I am positive Bill wants to start the next era of dominant Patriots football.

14. Denver Broncos: Liam Eichenberg OT, Notre Dame
   The Broncos are so close but they need size at the tackle position. Garrett Boiles has honestly been a failure at LT and it is time for the Broncos to get their stallworth from what seems to be THE offensive line producing school of the decade. Eichenberg is a 6’6 big man who has surprisingly agile feet which should help him in the pros. I think this is a pretty simple pick. Give Drew Lock the best opportunity to succeed. They started with his weapons, now finish it on the line.

15. San Francisco 49ers: Caleb Farley CB, Va Tech
   The 49ers barely miss out on getting the future of the QB in San Francisco (however there is a bay area QB up in Wisconsin they should check in on) so they might have to settle with fixing their broken secondary. They cannot keep running the press bail system that is going faster and faster out of style, but if they insist on sticking with the big physical corners than Farley is your man. He is tall and deceptively quick for his size who is already one of the best press corners in the country. He could be a really good player in the NFL and would fit in with what Saleh asks his corners to do in the secondary.

16. Chicago Bears: Jaylen Waddle WR, Alabama
   The Bears are starved for playmakers on offense. They need to get a dynamic playmaker who can make things happen with the ball in his hand. Waddle is a special athlete even for the wide receiver position. He is special and the only reason he is available at 16 is because of his unfortunate injury. Still I think that he is simply too much of a talent to pass on but Kremer may be right in the insistence of improving the OLine.

17. Cleveland Browns: Rashod Bateman WR, Minnesota
   The Browns are looking for a dynamic playmaker as well. They don’t have many holes elsewhere and it is clear that the Odell experiment is over in Cleveland. Get a receiver who is not only skilled at route running but is a fantastic 50/50 ball threat. He’s not Odell but you have to start somewhere.

18. Indianapolis Colts: Devonta Smith WR, Alabama
   The Colts are a team with little holes. They lack any really on the defense and are surprisingly cap friendly heading onto next season. What they could use is yet again a dynamic playmaker opposite Michael Pittman. Pittman can be the possession guy while Smith can be the deep threat and underneath guy who can help open up the offense for Phillip Rivers next season.

19. Philadelphia Eagles: Rondale Moore WR, Purdue
   The Eagles tried to get Wentz more help last year and I say they do the same thing this year. Either Regor or Moore has to work at some point but I see superstar potential in Rondale Moore. I think I would be scared to see Moore on a drag route or slant when Reagot is going deep.

20. Arizona Cardinals: Wyatt Davis IOL, OSU
   The Cardinals are an ascending team but it should be obvious to everyone that they are too reliant on Kyler Murray to do everything. Their run game needs size in the center to help free up the passing game and furthermore give some room for Drake to run. Wyatt Davis is such a high floor interior guy the Cardinals should be rushing to the podium after this pick is made.

21.Miami Dolphins: Dillon Radunz OT, North Dakota State
   The Dolphins are looking better and better every week and have a nice foundation at the skill positions on each side. However they are missing a lot of size on both lines and need to improve dramatically. Radunz is a big body and is the best bet to be a foundation piece of the guys left.

22. Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR): Daniel Faale OT, Minnesota
   Similar to the Dolphins, the Jags need a better foundation for their new signal caller. They should draft the biggest guy available to play LT for them. I Get the feeling the Jags are gonna have to be run heavy. Cam Robinson and Jawann Taylor have not worked the way they hoped it would, so betting more size and maybe moving one of them to guard is the optimal move.

23. Las Vegas Raiders: Dylan Moses LB, Alabama
   The Raiders are an ever improving team but they are missing their captain of the defense. Gruden loves his Linebackers that can do anything and you were to ask me the highest upside guy in this draft it would be Moses. Moses is a physical freak in the same vein as Jaylon Smith and Tremaine Edmunds and if he hits he could be a superstar in the league. That is the kind of player Gruden needs on defense that is filled with decent pieces but nothing elite.

24. Tennessee Titans: Kyle Pitts TE, Florida
The Titans here get a top 10 player in this draft at a position of need. Pitts reminds me of a more polished Evan Engram where he honestly could play receiver if he wanted to. He is lean and fast with a dangerous ability to slip through zones. He should be a QBs best friend and with the state of the Titans TE being what it is, they could really use that go-to weapon in the middle.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kwity Paye EDGE, Michigan
   The Bucs are trying to win this next year and to do that they need athletes rushing the passer. JPP and Shaq are good but they could use a true pass rushing specialist and that is what Kwity Paye offers. He offers an insane upside on the Line and pass rush to make an already stout defense even better. Plus I’m sure Brady would like his Michigan Man.

26. New York Jets (via SEA): Jaylen Mayfield OT, Michigan
   The Jets just need offensive lineman. Plain and simple. Why not get a guy who is a natural RT and is currently playing RT for your burgeoning offensive line. Putting Mayfield who is a fantastic athlete for his size opposite the monster in Becton at LT is ideal. It gives Lawrence a good base to build around moving forward.

27. Baltimore Ravens: Rashawn Slater OT, Northwestern
With this pick, I don’t expect Slater to play Tackle. I expect him to move to Guard and move into the old Marshall Yanda role that is vacant. The Ravens are obviously a different team than they were last year without him and getting a skilled guy with the kind of power he possesses and this could be a scary line for the years to come.

28. Buffalo Bills: Jay Tufele DT, USC
   The Bills need side up front. Point, blank, period. The Bills are too reliant on Hyde and white to carry the load on defense that teams elect to gash their terrible run defense. Tufele is a big motherfucker who can eat up gaps for the Bills. Easy pick here

29. Green Bay Packers: Sage Surrett WR, Wake Forest
   The packers finally get their first round WR. They get a decent compliment to Adams’s big play ability in Surrett who can handle a Michael Thomas like skillset. He is a big possession receiver who has deceptively great speed to make the big play when needed. If the PAckers are trying to win a Super Bowl in the Rodgers window than they need to give him this opportunity to succeed.

30. Kansas City Chiefs: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB, Notre Dame
   The Chiefs are hitting the point where they need to start plugging up holes and the biggest on their team currently is LB. They are thin and have routinely been over reliant on blitzing to stop the run so having a true do everything MLB like JOK is gonna be great for the Chiefs.

31. New Orleans Saints: Jaycee Horn CB, South Carolina
   The Saints need secondary help opposite Lattimore to really compete. They are too often getting into shootouts that they can’t win with the way they play football. They need to get their opposing offenses off the field because most of the time they are gonna be passing because of the pace the Saints play.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Travis Etienne RB, Clemson
   The Steelers are so close to a Super Bowl. At this point in the draft all the QBs and CBs I would wanna take are gone so I got creative. I think the Steelers should pick the best player available at a position of need that isn’t talked about. Travis Ettienne is a fantastic speedster who can break free at any moment for a big score. Not only that but he absorbs contact very well for his play style and I think he could be the real Le'veon replacement and if not, he is a great compliment to what James Conner does.

A Deeper Look Into The NFL’s Upcoming Television Negotiations

11/12/2020

By Adam Bressler, WCBN Sports

As the 2020 NFL season approaches its halfway mark, millions of fans are following the action on the field to see if their team will make the playoffs. However, behind the scenes, negotiations are taking place between the NFL and various media conglomerates that will shape how fans consume professional football for the next decade and beyond.

Immediately following Super Bowl LVI on February 6, 2022, the current NFL broadcast contracts are set to expire. These contracts dictate which networks broadcast each game, what time slot each game is scheduled for and on what devices viewers are able to watch the games. The current contracts were negotiated in 2011 and are worth over $5 billion in total each year.

During previous seasons, the NFL’s broadcast partners publicly stated that it would not start negotiating contract extensions until the NFL reached a new collective bargaining agreement with the NFLPA. The NFL players association approved this CBA on March 15, 2020, leading many to speculate that television negotiations would begin shortly after. However, earlier that week, Utah Jazz center Rudy Golbert tested positive for COVID-19, sending all of professional sports and American society into uncharted waters.

Both the NFL and its broadcast partners preferred to delay the television contract negotiations. The NFL executives were busy adjusting the upcoming season for an unimaginable virus, while television networks wanted to wait and see what effects the pandemic would take on professional sports and viewership patterns. Now that the season is underway as “normal” and television ratings have largely stabilized, preliminary contract negotiations are taking place.

Below, I examine the history of NFL television contracts and the economic considerations behind them, before speculating what the next round of television contracts might look like.

I Hit a Person in the Throat and Ushered in the Next Generation

9/14/2020

By: Alex Drain

In one split second moment, everything in the tennis world turned. After a scrappy performance to break living legend and world #1 Novak Djokovic by Pablo Carreno-Busta to give himself a chance to serve for the first set in a benign Round of 16 match, Djokovic decided to do something now famous across the tennis-sphere. Djokovic angrily hit an extra ball from his pocket in the direction of the wall as he headed towards the bench for a change-over and the ball nailed a linesperson in the throat, causing a quick medical emergency and due to a US Open rule, disqualified Djokovic from a tournament he was heavily favored to win. Just a few shocking milliseconds later and the US Open had been turned on its head, its course dramatically altered. With Djokovic out and Federer and Nadal not participating, suddenly someone new was going to win a Grand Slam.

Yesterday we found out who that person is: Dominic Thiem. After an epic, four hour and five set duel with Alexander Zverev, Thiem claimed the title by a final score of 2-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6 (8-6). It was a match worthy of the stage and was as good of tennis as you will ever see, on par with the three legends that this next crop of players have been trying to catch for years. Though the Big Three aren’t done, Djokovic and Nadal are 33 and 34, respectively, and Federer will probably try to give it one more go next year, this year’s US Open couldn’t help but feel like a sea change in the tennis world. Thiem is the first of his generation to win a Grand Slam title, and after 2019 saw a considerable narrowing of the gap between the Next Ones and the Great Ones, we may be entering a period where the final group has fully arrived. With that concept in mind, I wanted to drill deeper and take a look at the current state of the tennis landscape after this watershed tournament.

The Big 3’s Dominance

We know all about the greatness of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic. They are the three best men’s tennis players ever in some order- that much has become apparent thanks to the last three years, where the three won every Grand Slam from 2017-pre-COVID-2020 despite them all being in their 30s. 30 was traditionally the expiration date of a tennis player, with Pete Sampras retiring at 31 and even the durable Andre Agassi made only three Grand Slam finals after the age of 31. This run of dominance from the Big Three is bizarre historically and it is a testament to their greatness as players, their determination, and of course, the modern training/conditioning regimen. But the fact that no players were ready to take the titles away in 2017 is also a factor.

Just turn the clocks back to the 2017 Australian Open, which featured what may go down as the last great Federer-Nadal clash, where Roger beat Rafa in five to mark his return to glory. Of the 8 quarter finalists that year, they were born in 1981, 1987, 1985, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1990, and 1991. There was not a single player under age 25 to make it to the quarterfinals that year (!). How about the French Open in 2017? Looks familiar: 1987, 1989, 1986, 1988, 1991, 1986, 1993, and 1986. Wimbledon that year? Same story: 1987, 1987, 1983, 1988, 1990, 1981, 1985, and 1987. Oh and guess who the only player 25 or younger to make the quarterfinals in those three tournaments was? Dominic Thiem, the man we are all crowning today, who semifinaled at the French Open that year at 23 years old.

The point of this exercise is to note that the second wind of greatness from the Big Three (2017-now) was as much about their legendary play as it was about the lack of viable competitors. Competitors still existed, but the best ones were also rather old, like Kevin Anderson, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Marin Cilic. They were all extremely good players in their prime but Novak Djokovic at 30 is going to beat Marin Cilic at 30. But what if there was a Marin Cilic-caliber player at age 23? Now that’s another story. Which is where the past three years come in.

The next generation begins to rise

Though 2018 and the beginning of 2019 was mostly the same story as 2017, we did begin to see some bright spots on occasion. Dominic Thiem made the finals of the French Open in ‘18, establishing himself as the best *mortal* clay court player in the world and then took Nadal to the brink at the quarterfinals of the US Open that fall. The next year Stefanos Tsitsipas upset Federer at the 2019 Australian Open and made the semifinals of the tournament, and Thiem then made the French Open final again and this time actually took a set off of Nadal, which should be worth a small trophy in and of itself. 2019’s Wimbledon was much of the same and it gave us another all-time classic between Federer and Djokovic in the final, but since that point, things have begun to change.

In the 2019 US Open we were introduced to Daniil Medvedev, a tall and lanky Russian who looks like if Kevin Durant was white and learned to play tennis at an elite level. Medvedev had introduced himself to the tennis world at the hard court tournaments in August, making the final against Nadal in Canada and then winning the whole enchilada in Cincinnati, beating Djokovic in the semis to do it. In Flushing, NY, he got a bit of a gift with Djokovic’s injury problems but then dispatched Stan Wawrinka and Grigor Dmitrov before meeting Nadal in the final. After falling down two sets, Medvedev battled the Spanish superstar and took it the distance, losing in a heartbreaking 6-4 decision in the fifth set. Though he came up short that afternoon in September, Medvedev’s performance was by far the most spirited effort from any up-and-comer against a Big Three player since a different tall and lanky kid shocked the world on a similar night in NYC a decade earlier, when Juan Martin Del Potro knocked off Roger Federer in ‘09.

Medvedev’s performance took us into the 2020 Australian Open, where Dominic Thiem stepped up and showed his burgeoning talent. After taking home five titles in 2019, tied for the most on the tour with Djokovic, the Austrian defeated Nadal in five sets in the quarters, defeated fellow youngster Alexander Zverev in the semifinals and then had a two sets to one lead on Djokovic in the finals before letting it slip away and the Nole claimed another major. Still, it was the second consecutive major that a Next Ones member took a Big Three player to the brink in a major final and Thiem’s hard court improvement was on full display at that tournament. Heading into the full swing of the 2020 season it seemed as if this was finally the time for the Next Ones to eclipse the Great Ones after a calendar year of knocking on the door.

COVID makes us wait and Djokovic opens the gate

Of course, then the hectic events of the past six months happened and we didn’t get to see what the swing of the season would actually bring. We waited and waited, with Wimbledon getting canceled amid a revelation that they had purchased a "pandemic insurance" policy 17 years earlier (maybe the most underratedly insanse sports business story of the year). Finally the spell was broken with an abbreviated Western & Southern Open held in NYC instead of Cincinnati and then the US Open. The tourney was set to be a test of whether Medvedev, Thiem, Zverev, or Tsitsipas could topple Djokovic, the only legend playing the tournament. We never did get to see that though, thanks to Novak’s disqualification on the hit-the-lines-lady play. Yet, what we got was a real opportunity to see what the next generation of players bring to the table and with it came simply phenomenal tennis.

At times it felt like an experiment, removing the three players who have dominated the men’s sport for the last 15 years from the equation all at once, and you could sense the opportunity. The semifinals on Friday featured a gutty comeback from Zverev, who made his first major final by defeating Carreno-Busta in five sets and then a grueling three hour, three set slugfest between Thiem and Medvedev. That set the table for yesterday, Zverev against Thiem, the 27 year-old Austrian against the 23 year-old German. And it was simply a classic.

Dominic Thiem, heart of a champion

The ascent for Thiem has been slow and persistent. An excellent junior player, he first entered the radar at 22 as a clay court specialist, making the semifinals of the French Open in 2016 and propelling himself into the top ten of the ATP rankings, where he has stayed ever since. For a while, a “clay court specialist” is all Thiem really was, with your author writing the following in my 2018 Wimbledon preview:

“Thiem is the #7 seed in the tourney and he’s also in this quarter, though he struggles on any surface that isn’t clay, going 26-5 this year on it, and 10-5 off of it, frequently bowing out before his seed would suggest when on hard or grass courts”

Thiem still struggles on grass courts but what changed is he went from That Guy Who Nadal Will Curbstomp In The French Open Finals to a serious contender on hard courts and I remember when it happened. It occurred in spring 2019, when Thiem upset Federer at the 2019 Indian Wells tournament, one of the premier non-major hard court events of the season. As a longtime Federer fan, I had been very pleased with that matchup in the finals, because Thiem had yet to prove it. He showed it there though, and followed it up with his strong French Open effort, taking Nadal to four. That was followed by a rough Wimbledon and US Open but it all came together back in January in Melbourne, nearly defeating Djokovic in his most favorite event. It was a legitimately impressive performance, even if it came up short, and at that point it was hard to deny that Thiem was on the precipice of greatness. As previously stated, he had won five titles last year and had made two of the last four Grand Slam finals entering this US Open. Medvedev, Tsitsipas, and Zverev all have great talent but I told several people after Djokovic DQ’d himself that Thiem was the favorite at that point.

Indeed he was. Though lacking in great height, Thiem delivered thundering serves and blistering ground strokes, showing off total mobility to cruise into the semifinals where he ran into Medvedev. That was the aforementioned Friday night slugfest, where Thiem simply beat the hell out of the ball and showcased his one-handed backhand, a stroke powerful enough to get a nod from even Federer and David Ferrer themselves. Unfortunately, Thiem rolled his ankle during the match, limiting his ability to move around the court but he still closed out the big Russian and booked his ticket to his fourth Grand Slam final, and his third out of the last five major tournaments.

Entering yesterday it was hard not to cheer for Thiem over Zverev. Though tennis players, like US politicians, are staying relevant longer into previously advanced age than ever before, Thiem turned 27 during this tournament, which is no spring chicken in tennis terms (compared to Zverev’s 23). And a loss would put him in Andy Murray territory, losing his first four major finals, whereas this was Zverev’s first taste of a major final. Sascha’s time will come but Thiem’s years on the tour made him the most likable of the two. At first it was Zverev who had everything going, easily taking the first set and up a double break in the second, with Thiem struggling to find his compete level. But then he was able to break back and though it wasn’t enough to salvage the second set, he used it to springboard into a strong third and fourth, which ended in Thiem sending the match the distance.

The fifth set featured both players breaking down physically. They labored and Thiem’s ankle clearly began to flare up again, while conditioning problems seemed to wear on Zverev. Sascha was broken to begin the fifth set but Thiem gave it right back and later in the set it was Zverev who broke again and had a chance to serve for the match. By this point, serving had become a disadvantage for both players, unable to get much lift or power as the match rolled up on the four hour mark. Zverev struggled with double faults and began to just tap the second serve over and Thiem’s first serve percentage tailed. Zverev went to serve for the championship and Thiem broke him and then held to even the match at five apiece. Zverev was broken again and this time it was Thiem's turn to serve for the championship, but he too was broken. Of the twelve service games in the fifth set, six resulted in holds and six resulted in breaks.

The tiebreak was a decently similar story, as Thiem got two championship points but lost both on unforced errors to even it at 6-6. However, Thiem would claim the next point and then get to serve on his third championship point and this time it ended, with Zverev’s backhand floating wide and after years of hard work, Thiem had summited the mountain. He collapsed onto the court and would claim the trophy, putting together an epic effort to win the tournament. There is no such thing as an “unearned” Grand Slam championship, even those that go to random one-off winners whose glories are fleeting, the Gaston Gaudios and the Marion Bartolis, but this title was truly and completely earned. To rally from two sets down in a final, to do it with a nagging ankle, and to still win even after going up a break twice in the fifth set, just to give it right back, takes immense physical and mental toughness. The one thing we learned yesteday was that Dominic Thiem has the heart, the mind, and the body of a true champion.

The next chapter begins?

So where are we now, after this tumultuous and spectacular US Open? For one, the French Open begins in just two week’s time and that event seems likely to feature both Nadal and Djokovic, as well as the crop of younger players that showed out in New York. Obviously 12 time champion Nadal will be the favorite for that event, because he will be favored at Roland Garros every year until the day he retires, though it will provide Thiem a chance to break through again, having finaled there the last two years. Speaking more broadly though, it definitely feels like we’ve reached the point at which we can begin to expect at least one of the Next Ones to put up a considerable challenge to a Big Three member at every Grand Slam. It was already that way before this US Open, but Djokovic’s disqualification solidified the reality that this group is ready.

Men’s tennis has waited a long time for a few 1990s-birthday players to become contenders, and we have arrived there at long last. The Big Three will still likely be tough to beat, but as they continue to age, expect more and more younger players to step up and take the mantle. If nothing else, this tournament showed us that the post-Big Three world that we’ve wondered about for so long will probably be pretty damn fun. The past 15 years have been a glory age for tennis globally, with the sport booming around the world and spurred on by internationally marketed superstars who could draw big crowds and TV ratings. The fear for the game had been that after the Big Three fade away we would return to that small window of time between Sampras and Agassi and Federer’s rise, when the sport struggled to find big names and guys like Albert Costa, Thomas Johansson, and Goran Ivanisevic were winning majors. That doesn’t seem likely at this time. There’s a strong core of young players already and others are on the way. And over this past week the young players demonstrated that they are perfectly capable of playing phenomenal and exciting tennis. It just took Novak Djokovic and a ball to the throat to make it happen.

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A reluctant 2020 Detroit Lions Preview

9/11/2020

By: Alex Drain

After a long hibernation period, the NFL is officially back. Fans of teams from across America will finally have our beloved national religion (move over, Jesus) on the gridiron again, a desperately needed event to distract us from a pandemic, raging wildfires, and a rapidly approaching presidential election. Unfortunately, if you’re a Detroit Lions fan like I, your life has been filled with moments where being subjected to the horrors of real life has seemed preferable to watching another NFL game. Still, we turn on the TV every Sunday and I will be eager to do the same this Sunday when the Lions take the field against the Bears. Two years ago I wrote a preview of the Lions’ season for this website and was quite pessimistic, something that was confirmed by their subsequent 6-10 record. Last year I had a preview written but chose not to publish it- perhaps a good idea because I (obviously) did not see the team winning just three games. At least you can chalk that up to injuries.

Now with the 2020 season just two days away, I present to you yet another preview of the Detroit Lions, this time their 2020 iteration. This article will go through a series of points about where I'm optimistic and where I'm pessimistic, starting with...

What I feel good about: The Passing Game
Last season the Lions’ offense was completely rejuvenated under the play calling of Darrell Bevell, and Matthew Stafford was playing the best football of his career until his injury. It goes without saying that if the Lions can’t get Stafford healthy, they have a 0% chance of going anywhere in the NFL this season. We saw that in the final eight games of last year (No, Chase Daniel is not fixing the team in the event of another Stafford injury). But after having a full offseason to heal, reports out of training camp are about as positive as they could be for Stafford’s health and if he is in the lineup, I feel extremely confident about the effectiveness of this passing offense. In the first eight games last year, the Lions were averaging 295 passing yards per game, which across a full season would’ve ranked third best in the NFL. Bevell’s play-calling was the sharpest I’ve ever seen from a Lions OC in my lifetime (not exactly a high bar, though) and Detroit weaponized play-action to lethal success.

Reports out of camp are also positive about receiving corps: rookie WR Quintez Cephus has been the standout of camp, CB-turned-WR Jamal Agnew appears to be an interesting speedy weapon, and WR Marvin Hall is still around and should be good to make his one 35 yard catch per game. The Lions appear likely to carry 6 WR’s onto the roster and that’s because it’s a position of strength, not weakness. On top of those three, you have old faithful Danny Amendola, the slightly underrated Marvin Jones, and Kenny Golladay. Though Golladay doesn’t have a sexy name like a Mike Evans, he’s proved to be highly effective and gives the Lions a legit #1 threat. And on top of all of this you have tight end TJ Hockenson, who you hope makes the sophomore leap that most second year TE’s make. If he breaks out and becomes a 600ish yard guy, that’s another weapon. Oh and the Lions drafted DeAndre Swift in the early second round, who should play a big role as a receiving back. With a healthy Stafford, there’s a legit chance this passing game could make a run at the league’s best this year.

What I don’t feel good about: the running game

This meme I made sums up the last decade of being a Lions fan. Every year we hear that “this is the year the running game gets going” and every year it doesn’t happen. We were told that after Jahvid Best was drafted, after Reggie Bush was signed, after Ameer Abdullah was drafted, after the Lions signed TJ Lang and Rick Wagner, after Kerryon Johnson and Frank Ragnow were drafted, and again after TJ Hockenson was drafted last year. I’m not particularly down on the Lions running game, at least compared to previous years. It’s just I will not feel “good” about the running game until it actually happens. I have learned my lesson Lucy, I will NOT try and kick that football this year unless it’s on a goddamn tee and out of your grimy hands. I don't care about Swift being drafted or the signing/drafting of apparent maulers Halapoulivaati Vaitai and Jonah Jackson. The talent is there on paper but I. Will. Not. Be. Fooled. Again.

What I feel good about: Offseason defensive pickups
The Lions didn’t have an offseason that got lots of chatter in the NFL circles and it makes sense. They didn’t sign the literal GOAT QB, or trade for a marquee WR for pennies on the dollar, and they didn’t hand out a monster deal to a top free agent like last season. But they made a handful of moves to beef up the defense that I think could have a big impact. We’ve parodied the way the Lions have tried to turn themselves into New England But In Michigan by signing guys they probably shouldn’t, but snaring Danny Shelton, Jamie Collins, and Duron Harmon were all good moves. Collins brings a steady veteran presence to a position that badly needed it (LB), Duron Harmon is one of the more underrated safeties in the league, actually ranking in the top 25 of NFL safeties in PFF’s recent rankings, and Danny Shelton gives Detroit a probable starter at DT. On top of that, the Lions reeled in Desmond Trufant to replace Darius Slay at corner, which given their performances a year ago, is arguably an upgrade. These pieces are not high money or long-term deals but seem like they were intelligent uses of cap space to plug holes that were quite wide open a year ago.

What I don’t feel good about: So uh… who’s playing DT?
By far the weakest spot on Detroit’s roster seems to be defensive tackle, where they are carrying the following players into week 1: Danny Shelton, Nick Williams, and John Penisini, with Da’Shawn Hand playing both inside and out on the line. Williams and Shelton were good signings who should be serviceable starters, as noted in the previous section, but beyond that this depth chart gets very grim. John Penisini was a 7th round draft pick in the spring, profiling as a space eater nose tackle. If Williams and Shelton can play a full 16 games, the Lions may be fine, but this is football. That’s probably not going to happen and if we actually have to see Penisini (and other guys from the practice squad) play a lot, it won’t be good for the Lions. And boy, if Penisini gets hurt, then you, the reader, might as well strap on your pads and head to Allen Park and suit up at defensive tackle because I’ve got nothin’ on who would play that spot. On the bright side, Da’Shawn Hand gives the Lions a chance for an impact player along the interior of the line, as he’s been very good when completely healthy. But through two years Hand being completely healthy has been something of a fleeting glimpse than something we can have any real faith in.

What I feel good about: the secondary?
Detroit’s secondary was an utter catastrophe last season, ranking last in the NFL in passing yards against. They gave no real resistance to some of the best passing offenses they faced and the unit needed a complete overhaul in the offseason, something they mostly got. Trading Slay and signing Trufant was the first move, which I previously noted is probably an upgrade because Slay was quite bad last year. It was the worst season I’d seen him play since his rookie year in 2013, and while he could very well bounce back with Philly this year, it’s not like losing Slay means all that much given how poorly he played a year ago. Meanwhile, Trufant is a reliable, steady veteran. Though you’d ideally like a better #1 corner than him, you can also have a lot worse. As of this moment, the #2 corner would seem to be Amani Oruwariye, which is partly a function of Jeff Okudah’s inexperience, but also of Oruwariye’s growth. A 2019 draft pick who slid from the projected second round to the Lions in the fifth, Oruwariye looked much the part of a projected second rounder last season, one of the only bright spots in the secondary when he actually got to play.

Reports from training camp are quite positive about Oruwariye and I honestly don’t feel bad about him as the starting #2. Okudah will be a dude, and maybe this season, but it probably won’t happen right away. Okudah’s been greatly hurt by the fact the team didn’t practice all spring/summer and played no preseason games due to COVID. Ideally he should be a major contributor by midseason. At safety, I’m looking for Tracy Walker to make another jump after maturing into a quality starter last year, and I already mentioned the Harmon pickup, meanwhile second year player Will Harris needs to show some improvement. As a whole, I don’t think this group is the second coming of the Legion of Boom, but I am surprisingly okay with the secondary entering the season. Furthermore, I think they should be the strength of the 2020 defense. Even though that makes me incredibly nauseous to say, because calling the Lions’ secondary a strength just one year after the 2019 season feels like calling the city of Pripyat, Ukraine, a bastion of environmental health just one year after the Chernobyl meltdown.

What I don’t feel good about: the coaching staff
On paper, this is a team that should have a shot to make a run. They’ve got what could be a lethal offense, they brought in a fair bit of talent to shore up the defense, and have a very good QB. But the cloud hanging over all of this is the utter lack of faith that I, and everyone in the football world, have in Matt Patricia and his staff. I’m not including Darrell Bevell in this, since he runs the offense on his own and I’ve already buttered him up with praise. But as for the defense and the team overall, this coaching staff has given us nothing to be optimistic about. It started with a catastrophe of a Monday Night Football debut back in 2018, where the Lions self-immolated on national TV and Matt Patricia looked on with a bewildered and hapless face. Then we heard complaints from veteran players about the toxic culture, and complete lack of respect from other coaches. Patricia has been uncompromising, stubborn, unlikable, and flatly, unsuccessful as a Lions head coach. The team made some necessary coaching moves in the offseason, firing struggling OL coach Jeff Davidson, and replacing 90 year-old defensive coordinator Paul Pasqualoni with Cory Undlin. I want to believe in these moves, but I’ve been given not an ounce of reason to believe from the past two years, and I won’t until the results give me reason to.

What I feel good about: the winnability of the NFC North
As it stands right now, the Lions are the only team in the division that I think got demonstrably better in the offseason. Minnesota ran into cap hell and had to jettison their entire CB group, as well as Linval Joseph, Stefon, Diggs, and Everson Griffen, though they have restocked some of those areas with top draft picks, as well as excellent pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue. Minnesota still has great players across the roster, but there’s considerable uncertainty with the Vikings and it’s hard not to think there won’t be at least a small step back from them this year. Green Bay had a puzzling offseason where they spent their most valuable asset to pick a guy who probably won’t play this season (Jordan Love). The Packers didn’t make many moves at all and roll mostly the same team into the season, a team that I thought (and the Pythagorean theorem backs up) was supremely overrated. They were, according to expected W/L, more like a 10-6 team than a 13-3 one and I concur with that judgement. The Bears also didn’t make any real moves, losing a couple parts off the defense and bringing in Nick Foles, although Mitch Trubisky is the starter heading into week one. So long as Trubisky is the starter, it’s hard to feel like Chicago has a real shot to be a superpower. All told, I think nine wins could win the division, though you may want ten to be safe. For the record, Football Outsiders’ DVOA projections for the season see all four teams around 8-8 and that doesn’t feel that far off at this time.

Concluding thoughts
The 2020 Lions season feels like a true crossroads for the future of the franchise. The current GM, coach, and QB are all on the line this year because if things fall apart again and the team finishes 4-12, I think the whole management group has to be fired and it’s time to draft one of Fields, Lance, or Lawrence in April and start over. But if the team makes a run, maybe Detroit keeps Stafford around and tries to build around him the way the Saints have with an aging Brees. Unfortunately it’s hard not to feel like 7-9/8-8 is the most logical prediction. That’s what the team probably was last season, had Stafford played a full 16 games, and while they’ve added a lot of pieces compared to that, the coaching staff remains the gargantuan question mark over all of this.

A path for the Lions to make the playoffs probably runs through a monster offense and a passable defense. With the amount of firepower the offense has, as we stated previously, a top five finish is very much on the table. When you have that kind of unit on one side of the ball, you don’t need that much from the other side of the ball to be a playoff team. But you do need something and they didn’t have that last year defensively. The Lions need a defense that can get some stops. Not many, but some. If the defense can just hold opponents to 24 or so points per game against, while the offense surges to up 28 or so points per game for, over a sixteen game season that would translate out to a +64 point differential, which is indicative of a 10-6 team, roughly speaking. That should be enough to win the division.

So Detroit doesn’t need the defense to be incredible, but just to get enough stops to let the offense do the work. And still I’m rather unsteady about whether that can happen or not, simply because of how poor the defense has been in the past two seasons. The other factor to discuss is the schedule, which is extremely front-loaded. The Lions will face Chicago at home week 1, which is a must-win. After that it’s @Packers, @Cardinals, and home against the Saints. Detroit will need to win at least one of those. Following another early bye week, it’s @Jags, @Falcons, Colts, @Vikings. That’s a tough first eight games, where again, just beating Jacksonville and scratching one win out is the goal. Get to 4-4, and then beat Washington and @Carolina to be 6-4. From there, finishing 4-2 down the stretch against Houston, @Chicago, Packers, @Titans, Bucs, and Vikings gets you to ten wins. It’s not easy, but that’s the path to 10-6.

Unfortunately, that kind of schedule presents the possibility that a few things don’t go your way early on and then all of a sudden you’re 1-3 or 0-4 and then there presents the risk of the team giving up and quitting. The NFL is a league of supreme parity, where almost every week is going to a battle and just a couple breaks can flip your season. The Lions saw that first hand last year on a haunted Monday night in Green Bay. Which is why it’s perhaps most reasonable to expect roughly 8-8, but beware: due to both the talent level of the team, as well as the possibility of the coaching staff or frustration with it tanking the season, the tails of probability in either direction, are pretty fat.

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What's Next For Braden Holtby

8/30/2020

By Joshua Tenzer

After the Washington Capitals won the Stanley Cup in 2018, things have consistently gone downwards for the team. Despite 3 straight seasons finishing with an impressive 105 points (including 2019-20 when scaled up to 82 games), the playoffs have been a different story. In 2019 the Caps lost to the Carolina Hurricanes in double overtime of game 7 after a 2-0 and 3-2 series lead. In the Corona-Cup of 2020, The Capitals came in third in the seeding round-robin losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning in a shootout and the Philadelphia Flyers before beating the Bruins. Then in the first round of the playoffs, they lost in 5 games to the New York Islanders.

Braden Holtby

Holtby has been in net for all but 2 playoff games since he debuted on the Capital’s major league roster during the 2010-2011 season. With his contract ending this offseason (whenever that may be), it’s time to look back at how he has performed in net, what’s next for him, and most importantly, what roster will he be on at the start of the 2020-2021 season?

Braden Holtby has been outstanding during his decade-long tenure with Washington for whom he has played 565 games, 97 of them in the postseason. He is a 2-time all-star, a Vezina winner, a William M. Jennings Trophy winner, and led the Capitals to a Stanley Cup championship. The team pays him 6.1 million dollars in cap hit which is high for a goalie but not in the top 5 most expensive netminders. The only problem with Holtby is his apparent decline. At the end of the 2016-17 season, Holtby got the second most all-star votes for a goalie, won the Jennings Trophy, came second in Vezina voting, and 10th in Hart voting. That season was also the last where he would receive any votes for any NHL awards or make it to the all-star game. The graphs below show Holtby’s numbers compared to the league averages in the two most useful goalie stats: Save percentage and goals-against average. As you can see, his GAA is increasing and his SV% is decreasing. On both stats he is sub-par. He’s on the wrong side of thirty and it looks like, assuming that he signs a long term contract, this will be his last serious chance at free-agency. How much money will he get?

It’s a complicated question to answer. The first issue is the flat cap. Every year since its inception, the salary cap in the NHL has increased (except for the lockout-shortened season of 2012-13). Due to the coronavirus, the sports world has faced financial complications. 10-12 games per team were left unplayed and the postseason is without fans so a lot of ticket money was lost. Not to mention the fact that finances went down across the globe. NHL insiders have made it believed that the salary cap for the 2020-21 season will remain the same as the 2019-20 season at 81.5 million dollars.

The second kink in the chain is the reality of Holtby’s stats. As commented on above, Holtby appears to be past his prime and in a period of decay. His numbers are in a death spiral and it is yet to be seen if he can pull out of it. A smart team would recognize that the likelihood of Holby performing as well as he did in D.C. is slim and would offer him less money than he is making now. However, this is NHL and smart teams are hard to come by. Last year, there was a goalie who was up for a contract negotiation like Holtby, was nearly the exact same age as Holby is, and was on a 3-year decline like Holtby: Sergei Bobrovsky. Bobrovsky left the Blue Jackets, where he developed into a generational talent, and signed with the Florida Panthers for a cool 10 million dollars. Bobrovsky proceeded to have the worst season of his career. The Panthers won only one postseason game: a qualifying round victory over the Islanders, and would fail to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Will teams learn from what happened to the Panthers or make the same mistake and roll the dice again? It’s yet to be seen but I’m not too optimistic.

Sergei Bobrovsky on the Florida Panthers

  The third variable to consider is his competition. There are 17 goalies whose contracts are ending this offseason. Of those 17, Holtby has played the most games but is 13th in SV% and 12th in GAA. Names above him in both stats include Aaron Dell and Ryan Miller. When you enter the mind-bending fun land of advanced analytics, Holby struggles even more. There’s a stat Quality Start % which takes the total games started by a goalie and sees what percent of those starts have a higher save percentage than the league average. > 60% is good, <50% is bad, and the league average is about 53%. Holtby’s QS% is 46.8%.

   Despite all that, I think that Holtby will get about 6.25 million dollars in free agency this year. While that is an increase in money, it is actually a smaller percentage of the cap than when he signed his current contract in 2015. Bobrovsky also showed that NHL front offices are a sucker for the power of a big name even if the underlying statistics are cause for concern.

   The question to answer now is what team will Holtby start for next season? If the team isn’t listed it’s because they have either finalized a solid goalie situation for the next year or spent too much money and don’t have the room to sign Holtby to a deal that he would take. There are some teams that either have a good goalie situation or no money that I included anyway because I wanted to bring attention to those specific teams.

Chicago Blackhawks: I Think Not
   I’ve seen a few people on Twitter talking about how much fun it would be for Braden Holtby to sign with Chicago. I admit it would be fun to see Holtby play on the same team as other greats of the early 2010s like Partick Kane and Jonathan Toews. However, the Blackhawks already have a post-prime, 6 million dollar goalie they need to give a new contract to Corey Crawford. Prevailing wisdom has Crawford re-signing with Chicago and I tend to agree.

Corey Crawford

Toronto Maple Leafs: I Mean… I Guess
There's a rumor going around that the Leafs want to trade away their starting goalie Freddie Andersen and since they just sent their 2nd line winger Kasperi Kapanen for essentially the 15th pick of the 2020 draft, I wouldn’t be surprised if those rumors are true. It’s a very real possibility that Freddie Andersen isn’t on the Leafs come December considering it’s the final year of this contract and he’s played himself into a new contract that the Leafs can’t afford in the 2021 offseason. This then leaves Toronto with the goalie combination in their system being Jack Campbell backed up by Kasimir Kaskisuo which is not a winning combination. The Leafs would be in the market for a new starting goalie but they don’t really have the money for him. There’s some universe where Holtby is in blue next season but this universe probably isn’t it.

Freddie Andersen

Washington Capitals: A Possibility
Is it possible that he will come back to the Capitals for the next season? Yes. Is it likely? Not at all. One factor in this is the man who played backup to Holtby during this past season: Ilya Samsonov. In 26 games with the Capitals, Samsonov posted a 16-6-2 record with a GAA of 2.54 and a save percentage of .914 putting him easily in the top 30 goalies stats-wise. He’s part of this wave of young goalies impressing their GMs this season. In addition to being statistically better than Holtby this year, Samsonov is cheap, still on his entry-level contract.

Holtby (Left) and Ilya Samsonov (Right) at Practice

  Washington is on a tight budget when it comes to the salary cap for the 2020-2021 season. They only have ten million dollars of cap space left and they have two defensemen and two forwards that need to be either re-signed or replaced. Even if all five of those players were allowed to walk by the Capitals and Washington signed five rookies at the league minimum, that would still only leave Washington with just under 6.5 million dollars to re-sign Holtby who, as we showed earlier, can fit into that budget. Of course, the Capitals could try to trade away some players to make some cap space for themselves but most of their contracts have three or more years remaining and the players are either too expensive for their skill level or not efficient financially as they still need to replace players who get shipped away. Having said that, it doesn’t seem likely or possible that the Caps can sign so many players for so little money and maintain enough cap space to re-sign their franchise goaltender.

San Jose Sharks: Could Be
   It is said that the Sharks are a rebuilding team and could definitely benefit from a veteran presence like Braden Holtby. The issues arise when you look at that statement more closely. They already have veteran presences like 41-year-old Joe Thornton and 35-year-old Brent Burns. The Sharks also already dropped a lot of cash on a 30-year-old goalie who hasn’t performed to the standards that they set for him. Martin Jones is paid 5.75 million dollars a year and since signing that contract has posted two straight .896 SV% seasons and a GAA of around 3.00. Jones also has a modified no-movement clause in which he submits a list of only three teams that the Sharks can trade him to. This essentially boils down to the fact that the Sharks are stuck with an overpaid, underperforming goaltender. Would they gamble on Braden Holtby after getting burned by Jones? Maybe, but it seems more likely that they would go for Matt Murray or Linus Ullmark who would cost them less in the event of another flop.

Detroit Red Wings: Top 3
   The Detroit Red Wings are an interesting team right now. They have 11 players who will be UFAs or RFAs in the coming offseason and over 34 million dollars in cap space. Not only that, but they have the truest mark of a rebuilding team: No contracts that go into the 2023-24 season. If the 2019-20 season was the last season of them intentionally tanking, we can expect them to re-sign key players like Anthony Mantha and Tyler Bertuzzi to long term contracts and start building the core that they will run with for the next half-decade.

  The key position that the Red Wings need to fix with a free agent signing is goaltending. They started the season with their trust in Jimmy Howard. Throughout the season he played in 27 games and won only two of them. He’s old, his contract is expiring this offseason and he’s abysmal. He posted a SV% of less than .85 in a third of his starts. You might remember that a QS% of 50% is considered bad, Howard’s QS% was 26%! The goalie the Red Wings switched to was Jonathan Bernier who was better but still had a QS% of 42%. The Red Wings need a goalie and Holtby would be a massive improvement for them. They could sign Holtby and build a defensive core around his playstyle since they have zero defensemen on contract for the 2021-22 season.

Detroit’s Current Goalies: Jonathan Bernier (Left) and Jimmy Howard (Right)

  While being in the middle of a rebuild is a potential positive for Holtby, it could also be the reason he chooses not to sign with the red and white. As stated, this should be the last contract Holtby signs and where he plays out the twilight of his career. Will he want to spend the first three years out of the playoffs and not have a chance to chase that second ring? Maybe. The Red Wings are a strong possibility but not the most likely option.

Ottawa Senators: Top 3
   Here we start getting into the teams that make the most sense for Holtby to go to. Like the Sharks, they are beginning their rebuild. They have a wealth of draft picks with 9 picks in the first 3 rounds of the 2020 NHL Draft. They also don’t have a serious future in net and their starter isn’t under contract for next season. Whereas with the Sharks, it didn’t make sense for Holbty to go there to be a veteran in the locker room, with the Sens, it would be a perfect role for him. They are poised to take the title of youngest team in the NHL from the Blackhawks and unlike Chicago, they don’t have a Kane or Duncan to give the roster a bit of maturity and guidance for the younger players. Holtby is a positive locker room presence and may even benefit himself from that mentor role.

   The Sens could take the best goalie in the 2020 draft class Yaroslav Askarov with the number 5 pick. Though Askarov is predicted to go at 13 to Carolina, NHL.com has Askarov as the 6th best player in the draft so taking him at 5 isn’t Daniel Jones levels of reaching. Holtby could take the starting role as Askarov develops until they split starts and eventually Holtby gets relegated to a backup role. This can be built into the contract the Sens offer him by front-loading his salary, giving him upwards of 7 million in the first two years, going down to 6.5 million for the next two, and giving him 4.5 million for the last three years.

Yaroslav Askarov

Edmonton Oilers: Put Money on It
The Edmonton Oilers are good. They have two of the four best hockey players in the world on the same line. Their top 6 is monstrous, their bottom 6 forwards are a mix of young and old serviceable interchangeable parts. Their defense is young, hard-hitting, and strong. This begs the question: Why didn't they make the playoffs this year? They were the 5 seed going up against the 12 seeded Chicago Blackhawks. When the Blackhawks won, their weaknesses were exposed by the Golden Knights, they should not have been in the playoffs so how did they beat the Oilers? The Oilers scored 3 goals a game which is on par with how they did in the regular season and the league average. The issue is that they let in a total of 19 goals in four games. Mikko Koskinen is a fine enough backup in the regular season but in the playoffs he dropped to a .889 SV%. Their starter, Mike Smith had a .902 SV% in the regular season and .783 in the play-in round. If they want to complete their remake of the mid-80’s team, they’ve already cast Connor McDavid as Wayne Gretzky, Leon Draisaitl as Mark Messier, James Niel as Jari Kurri, and now they need Braden Holtby to play the role of Grant Fuhr.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl: The Modern Day Gretzky and Messier

Goaltending is the last piece that this team needs to make it deep in the playoffs. If I were Holtby and I wanted to play for the best possible team, I would go to Edmonton and sign a contract through the 2025-26 season, which is the same year that Connor McDavid’s contract ends. Edmonton would like this because Holtby’s contract would be off the books in time to give McDavid the biggest contract imaginable and Holby would like this because if his decline does continue, he’s still getting paid for years and might even get another ring. On a more personal note, Holtby was born and raised in Loydminster which is on the border of Saskatchewan and Alberta. The closest NHL team to Loydminster is Edmonton. This makes the most sense.

The question I posed at the beginning of this article is so complex because of Holtby’s declining numbers, Bobrovsky’s contract, and each team having their own pros and cons. At the end of the day, the teams that make the most sense to me are the Senators, Red Wings, and Oilers. Out of those teams, I would say that he is most probably going to Edmonton in the offseason but no matter where he ends up, I will be watching very closely to see if it’s another flop or if he hoists the cup again.

Braden Holtby Hoisting the Stanley Cup with Washington in 2018

  I would like to give a huge thank you to Capfriendly and Hockey-Reference for giving me all of the information I needed to compile this list.

Image Credits:
   Yahoo Sports
   NBC Sports
  NHL.com
  NoVa Caps
  Bardown
  Puckprose