On military appreciation day and in front of the largest crowd of the season, the Wolverines (7-4) fell to the #1/#1 Maryland Terrapins (9-0) by a score of 20 to 12. Ryan Cohen had four goals and one assist for the Wolverines and Isaac Aronson had three goals and two helpers. Four players for the Terrapins tallied a hat trick for the team in red (Murphy, Khan, Donville, and Wisnauskas). Coach Kevin Conry falls to 0-6 against the team he was a defensive assistant for before becoming the second head coach of the Wolverines men’s lacrosse program.

Through one quarter, in a game between two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation, the defense was the biggest factor. Michigan played a tight and physical style of defense that forced the Terrapins to take inaccurate shots that sailed wide of the net more often than not. On the shots that were on target Shane Carr, who leads the Big Ten in save percentage, was able to come up big for his team with two strong saves within the first five minutes to keep the Terps off the board. Carr struggled after the first intermission allowing two goals within 30 seconds of each other twice in the second frame and as the second quarter carried on, the Terrapins continued to expand their lead over the maize and blue. Maryland started to have an easier and easier time getting players open and in all alone against Shane Carr. Too often the Michigan defense allowed players near the crease to have all the time and space they needed to make a move that Carr bit on and lob the ball over the goalie to dent the twine.

By: Alex Drain

In one split second moment, everything in the tennis world turned. After a scrappy performance to break living legend and world #1 Novak Djokovic by Pablo Carreno-Busta to give himself a chance to serve for the first set in a benign Round of 16 match, Djokovic decided to do something now famous across the tennis-sphere. Djokovic angrily hit an extra ball from his pocket in the direction of the wall as he headed towards the bench for a change-over and the ball nailed a linesperson in the throat, causing a quick medical emergency and due to a US Open rule, disqualified Djokovic from a tournament he was heavily favored to win. Just a few shocking milliseconds later and the US Open had been turned on its head, its course dramatically altered. With Djokovic out and Federer and Nadal not participating, suddenly someone new was going to win a Grand Slam.

Yesterday we found out who that person is: Dominic Thiem. After an epic, four hour and five set duel with Alexander Zverev, Thiem claimed the title by a final score of 2-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6 (8-6). It was a match worthy of the stage and was as good of tennis as you will ever see, on par with the three legends that this next crop of players have been trying to catch for years. Though the Big Three aren’t done, Djokovic and Nadal are 33 and 34, respectively, and Federer will probably try to give it one more go next year, this year’s US Open couldn’t help but feel like a sea change in the tennis world. Thiem is the first of his generation to win a Grand Slam title, and after 2019 saw a considerable narrowing of the gap between the Next Ones and the Great Ones, we may be entering a period where the final group has fully arrived. With that concept in mind, I wanted to drill deeper and take a look at the current state of the tennis landscape after this watershed tournament.

The Big 3’s Dominance 

We know all about the greatness of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic. They are the three best men’s tennis players ever in some order- that much has become apparent thanks to the last three years, where the three won every Grand Slam from 2017-pre-COVID-2020 despite them all being in their 30s. 30 was traditionally the expiration date of a tennis player, with Pete Sampras retiring at 31 and even the  durable Andre Agassi made only three Grand Slam finals after the age of 31. This run of dominance from the Big Three is bizarre historically and it is a testament to their greatness as players, their determination, and of course, the modern training/conditioning regimen. But the fact that no players were ready to take the titles away in 2017 is also a factor.

Just turn the clocks back to the 2017 Australian Open, which featured what may go down as the last great Federer-Nadal clash, where Roger beat Rafa in five to mark his return to glory. Of the 8 quarter finalists that year, they were born in 1981, 1987, 1985, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1990, and 1991. There was not a single player under age 25 to make it to the quarterfinals that year (!). How about the French Open in 2017? Looks familiar: 1987, 1989, 1986, 1988, 1991, 1986, 1993, and 1986. Wimbledon that year? Same story: 1987, 1987, 1983, 1988, 1990, 1981, 1985, and 1987. Oh and guess who the only player 25 or younger to make the quarterfinals in those three tournaments was? Dominic Thiem, the man we are all crowning today, who semifinaled at the French Open that year at 23 years old. 

The point of this exercise is to note that the second wind of greatness from the Big Three (2017-now) was as much about their legendary play as it was about the lack of viable competitors. Competitors still existed, but the best ones were also rather old, like Kevin Anderson, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Marin Cilic. They were all extremely good players in their prime but Novak Djokovic at 30 is going to beat Marin Cilic at 30. But what if there was a Marin Cilic-caliber player at age 23? Now that’s another story. Which is where the past three years come in. 

The next generation begins to rise 

Though 2018 and the beginning of 2019 was mostly the same story as 2017, we did begin to see some bright spots on occasion. Dominic Thiem made the finals of the French Open in ‘18, establishing himself as the best *mortal* clay court player in the world and then took Nadal to the brink at the quarterfinals of the US Open that fall. The next year Stefanos Tsitsipas upset Federer at the 2019 Australian Open and made the semifinals of the tournament, and Thiem then made the French Open final again and this time actually took a set off of Nadal, which should be worth a small trophy in and of itself. 2019’s Wimbledon was much of the same and it gave us another all-time classic between Federer and Djokovic in the final, but since that point, things have begun to change. 

In the 2019 US Open we were introduced to Daniil Medvedev, a tall and lanky Russian who looks like if Kevin Durant was white and learned to play tennis at an elite level. Medvedev had introduced himself to the tennis world at the hard court tournaments in August, making the final against Nadal in Canada and then winning the whole enchilada in Cincinnati, beating Djokovic in the semis to do it. In Flushing, NY, he got a bit of a gift with Djokovic’s injury problems but then dispatched Stan Wawrinka and Grigor Dmitrov before meeting Nadal in the final. After falling down two sets, Medvedev battled the Spanish superstar and took it the distance, losing in a heartbreaking 6-4 decision in the fifth set. Though he came up short that afternoon in September, Medvedev’s performance was by far the most spirited effort from any up-and-comer against a Big Three player since a different tall and lanky kid shocked the world on a similar night in NYC a decade earlier, when Juan Martin Del Potro knocked off Roger Federer in ‘09. 

Medvedev’s performance took us into the 2020 Australian Open, where Dominic Thiem stepped up and showed his burgeoning talent. After taking home five titles in 2019, tied for the most on the tour with Djokovic, the Austrian defeated Nadal in five sets in the quarters, defeated fellow youngster Alexander Zverev in the semifinals and then had a two sets to one lead on Djokovic in the finals before letting it slip away and the Nole claimed another major. Still, it was the second consecutive major that a Next Ones member took a Big Three player to the brink in a major final and Thiem’s hard court improvement was on full display at that tournament. Heading into the full swing of the 2020 season it seemed as if this was finally the time for the Next Ones to eclipse the Great Ones after a calendar year of knocking on the door. 

COVID makes us wait and Djokovic opens the gate 

Of course, then the hectic events of the past six months happened and we didn’t get to see what the swing of the season would actually bring. We waited and waited, with Wimbledon getting canceled amid a revelation that they had purchased a "pandemic insurance" policy 17 years earlier (maybe the most underratedly insanse sports business story of the year). Finally the spell was broken with an abbreviated Western & Southern Open held in NYC instead of Cincinnati and then the US Open. The tourney was set to be a test of whether Medvedev, Thiem, Zverev, or Tsitsipas could topple Djokovic, the only legend playing the tournament. We never did get to see that though, thanks to Novak’s disqualification on the hit-the-lines-lady play. Yet, what we got was a real opportunity to see what the next generation of players bring to the table and with it came simply phenomenal tennis. 

At times it felt like an experiment, removing the three players who have dominated the men’s sport for the last 15 years from the equation all at once, and you could sense the opportunity. The semifinals on Friday featured a gutty comeback from Zverev, who made his first major final by defeating Carreno-Busta in five sets and then a grueling three hour, three set slugfest between Thiem and Medvedev. That set the table for yesterday, Zverev against Thiem, the 27 year-old Austrian against the 23 year-old German. And it was simply a classic. 

Dominic Thiem, heart of a champion 

The ascent for Thiem has been slow and persistent. An excellent junior player, he first entered the radar at 22 as a clay court specialist, making the semifinals of the French Open in 2016 and propelling himself into the top ten of the ATP rankings, where he has stayed ever since. For a while, a “clay court specialist” is all Thiem really was, with your author writing the following in my 2018 Wimbledon preview: 

“Thiem is the #7 seed in the tourney and he’s also in this quarter, though he struggles on any surface that isn’t clay, going 26-5 this year on it, and 10-5 off of it, frequently bowing out before his seed would suggest when on hard or grass courts”

Thiem still struggles on grass courts but what changed is he went from That Guy Who Nadal Will Curbstomp In The French Open Finals to a serious contender on hard courts and I remember when it happened. It occurred in spring 2019, when Thiem upset Federer at the 2019 Indian Wells tournament, one of the premier non-major hard court events of the season. As a longtime Federer fan, I had been very pleased with that matchup in the finals, because Thiem had yet to prove it. He showed it there though, and followed it up with his strong French Open effort, taking Nadal to four. That was followed by a rough Wimbledon and US Open but it all came together back in January in Melbourne, nearly defeating Djokovic in his most favorite event. It was a legitimately impressive performance, even if it came up short, and at that point it was hard to deny that Thiem was on the precipice of greatness. As previously stated, he had won five titles last year and had made two of the last four Grand Slam finals entering this US Open. Medvedev, Tsitsipas, and Zverev all have great talent but I told several people after Djokovic DQ’d himself that Thiem was the favorite at that point. 

Indeed he was. Though lacking in great height, Thiem delivered thundering serves and blistering ground strokes, showing off total mobility to cruise into the semifinals where he ran into Medvedev. That was the aforementioned Friday night slugfest, where Thiem simply beat the hell out of the ball and showcased his one-handed backhand, a stroke powerful enough to get a nod from even Federer and David Ferrer themselves. Unfortunately, Thiem rolled his ankle during the match, limiting his ability to move around the court but he still closed out the big Russian and booked his ticket to his fourth Grand Slam final, and his third out of the last five major tournaments. 

Entering yesterday it was hard not to cheer for Thiem over Zverev. Though tennis players, like US politicians, are staying relevant longer into previously advanced age than ever before, Thiem turned 27 during this tournament, which is no spring chicken in tennis terms (compared to Zverev’s 23). And a loss would put him in Andy Murray territory, losing his first four major finals, whereas this was Zverev’s first taste of a major final. Sascha’s time will come but Thiem’s years on the tour made him the most likable of the two. At first it was Zverev who had everything going, easily taking the first set and up a double break in the second, with Thiem struggling to find his compete level. But then he was able to break back and though it wasn’t enough to salvage the second set, he used it to springboard into a strong third and fourth, which ended in Thiem sending the match the distance. 

The fifth set featured both players breaking down physically. They labored and Thiem’s ankle clearly began to flare up again, while conditioning problems seemed to wear on Zverev. Sascha was broken to begin the fifth set but Thiem gave it right back and later in the set it was Zverev who broke again and had a chance to serve for the match. By this point, serving had become a disadvantage for both players, unable to get much lift or power as the match rolled up on the four hour mark. Zverev struggled with double faults and began to just tap the second serve over and Thiem’s first serve percentage tailed. Zverev went to serve for the championship and Thiem broke him and then held to even the match at five apiece. Zverev was broken again and this time it was Thiem's turn to serve for the championship, but he too was broken. Of the twelve service games in the fifth set, six resulted in holds and six resulted in breaks. 

The tiebreak was a decently similar story, as Thiem got two championship points but lost both on unforced errors to even it at 6-6. However, Thiem would claim the next point and then get to serve on his third championship point and this time it ended, with Zverev’s backhand floating wide and after years of hard work, Thiem had summited the mountain. He collapsed onto the court and would claim the trophy, putting together an epic effort to win the tournament. There is no such thing as an “unearned” Grand Slam championship, even those that go to random one-off winners whose glories are fleeting, the Gaston Gaudios and the Marion Bartolis, but this title was truly and completely earned. To rally from two sets down in a final, to do it with a nagging ankle, and to still win even after going up a break twice in the fifth set, just to give it right back, takes immense physical and mental toughness. The one thing we learned yesteday was that Dominic Thiem has the heart, the mind, and the body of a true champion. 

The next chapter begins?

So where are we now, after this tumultuous and spectacular US Open? For one, the French Open begins in just two week’s time and that event seems likely to feature both Nadal and Djokovic, as well as the crop of younger players that showed out in New York. Obviously 12 time champion Nadal will be the favorite for that event, because he will be favored at Roland Garros every year until the day he retires, though it will provide Thiem a chance to break through again, having finaled there the last two years. Speaking more broadly though, it definitely feels like we’ve reached the point at which we can begin to expect at least one of the Next Ones to put up a considerable challenge to a Big Three member at every Grand Slam. It was already that way before this US Open, but Djokovic’s disqualification solidified the reality that this group is ready. 

Men’s tennis has waited a long time for a few 1990s-birthday players to become contenders, and we have arrived there at long last. The Big Three will still likely be tough to beat, but as they continue to age, expect more and more younger players to step up and take the mantle. If nothing else, this tournament showed us that the post-Big Three world that we’ve wondered about for so long will probably be pretty damn fun. The past 15 years have been a glory age for tennis globally, with the sport booming around the world and spurred on by internationally marketed superstars who could draw big crowds and TV ratings. The fear for the game had been that after the Big Three fade away we would return to that small window of time between Sampras and Agassi and Federer’s rise, when the sport struggled to find big names and guys like Albert Costa, Thomas Johansson, and Goran Ivanisevic were winning majors. That doesn’t seem likely at this time. There’s a strong core of young players already and others are on the way. And over this past week the young players demonstrated that they are perfectly capable of playing phenomenal and exciting tennis. It just took Novak Djokovic and a ball to the throat to make it happen.

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By: Alex Drain

After a long hibernation period, the NFL is officially back. Fans of teams from across America will finally have our beloved national religion (move over, Jesus) on the gridiron again, a desperately needed event to distract us from a pandemic, raging wildfires, and a rapidly approaching presidential election. Unfortunately, if you’re a Detroit Lions fan like I, your life has been filled with moments where being subjected to the horrors of real life has seemed preferable to watching another NFL game. Still, we turn on the TV every Sunday and I will be eager to do the same this Sunday when the Lions take the field against the Bears. Two years ago I wrote a preview of the Lions’ season for this website and was quite pessimistic, something that was confirmed by their subsequent 6-10 record. Last year I had a preview written but chose not to publish it- perhaps a good idea because I (obviously) did not see the team winning just three games. At least you can chalk that up to injuries. 

Now with the 2020 season just two days away, I present to you yet another preview of the Detroit Lions, this time their 2020 iteration. This article will go through a series of points about where I'm optimistic and where I'm pessimistic, starting with...

What I feel good about: The Passing Game
Last season the Lions’ offense was completely rejuvenated under the play calling of Darrell Bevell, and Matthew Stafford was playing the best football of his career until his injury. It goes without saying that if the Lions can’t get Stafford healthy, they have a 0% chance of going anywhere in the NFL this season. We saw that in the final eight games of last year (No, Chase Daniel is not fixing the team in the event of another Stafford injury). But after having a full offseason to heal, reports out of training camp are about as positive as they could be for Stafford’s health and if he is in the lineup, I feel extremely confident about the effectiveness of this passing offense. In the first eight games last year, the Lions were averaging 295 passing yards per game, which across a full season would’ve ranked third best in the NFL. Bevell’s play-calling was the sharpest I’ve ever seen from a Lions OC in my lifetime (not exactly a high bar, though) and Detroit weaponized play-action to lethal success. 

Reports out of camp are also positive about receiving corps: rookie WR Quintez Cephus has been the standout of camp, CB-turned-WR Jamal Agnew appears to be an interesting speedy weapon, and WR Marvin Hall is still around and should be good to make his one 35 yard catch per game. The Lions appear likely to carry 6 WR’s onto the roster and that’s because it’s a position of strength, not weakness. On top of those three, you have old faithful Danny Amendola, the slightly underrated Marvin Jones, and Kenny Golladay. Though Golladay doesn’t have a sexy name like a Mike Evans, he’s proved to be highly effective and gives the Lions a legit #1 threat. And on top of all of this you have tight end TJ Hockenson, who you hope makes the sophomore leap that most second year TE’s make. If he breaks out and becomes a 600ish yard guy, that’s another weapon. Oh and the Lions drafted DeAndre Swift in the early second round, who should play a big role as a receiving back. With a healthy Stafford, there’s a legit chance this passing game could make a run at the league’s best this year.


What I don’t feel good about: the running game










This meme I made sums up the last decade of being a Lions fan. Every year we hear that “this is the year the running game gets going” and every year it doesn’t happen. We were told that after Jahvid Best was drafted, after Reggie Bush was signed, after Ameer Abdullah was drafted, after the Lions signed TJ Lang and Rick Wagner, after Kerryon Johnson and Frank Ragnow were drafted, and again after TJ Hockenson was drafted last year. I’m not particularly down on the Lions running game, at least compared to previous years. It’s just I will not feel “good” about the running game until it actually happens. I have learned my lesson Lucy, I will NOT try and kick that football this year unless it’s on a goddamn tee and out of your grimy hands. I don't care about Swift being drafted or the signing/drafting of apparent maulers Halapoulivaati Vaitai and Jonah Jackson. The talent is there on paper but I. Will. Not. Be. Fooled. Again. 

What I feel good about: Offseason defensive pickups
The Lions didn’t have an offseason that got lots of chatter in the NFL circles and it makes sense. They didn’t sign the literal GOAT QB, or trade for a marquee WR for pennies on the dollar, and they didn’t hand out a monster deal to a top free agent like last season. But they made a handful of moves to beef up the defense that I think could have a big impact. We’ve parodied the way the Lions have tried to turn themselves into New England But In Michigan by signing guys they probably shouldn’t, but snaring Danny Shelton, Jamie Collins, and Duron Harmon were all good moves. Collins brings a steady veteran presence to a position that badly needed it (LB), Duron Harmon is  one of the more underrated safeties in the league, actually ranking in the top 25 of NFL safeties in PFF’s recent rankings, and Danny Shelton gives Detroit a probable starter at DT. On top of that, the Lions reeled in Desmond Trufant to replace Darius Slay at corner, which given their performances a year ago, is arguably an upgrade. These pieces are not high money or long-term deals but seem like they were intelligent uses of cap space to plug holes that were quite wide open a year ago. 

What I don’t feel good about: So uh… who’s playing DT?
By far the weakest spot on Detroit’s roster seems to be defensive tackle, where they are carrying the following players into week 1: Danny Shelton, Nick Williams, and John Penisini, with Da’Shawn Hand playing both inside and out on the line. Williams and Shelton were good signings who should be serviceable starters, as noted in the previous section, but beyond that this depth chart gets very grim. John Penisini was a 7th round draft pick in the spring, profiling as a space eater nose tackle. If Williams and Shelton can play a full 16 games, the Lions may be fine, but this is football. That’s probably not going to happen and if we actually have to see Penisini (and other guys from the practice squad) play a lot, it won’t be good for the Lions. And boy, if Penisini gets hurt, then you, the reader, might as well strap on your pads and head to Allen Park and suit up at defensive tackle because I’ve got nothin’ on who would play that spot. On the bright side, Da’Shawn Hand gives the Lions a chance for an impact player along the interior of the line, as he’s been very good when completely healthy. But through two years Hand being completely healthy has been something of a fleeting glimpse than something we can have any real faith in. 

What I feel good about: the secondary?
Detroit’s secondary was an utter catastrophe last season, ranking last in the NFL in passing yards against. They gave no real resistance to some of the best passing offenses they faced and the unit needed a complete overhaul in the offseason, something they mostly got. Trading Slay and signing Trufant was the first move, which I previously noted is probably an upgrade because Slay was quite bad last year. It was the worst season I’d seen him play since his rookie year in 2013, and while he could very well bounce back with Philly this year, it’s not like losing Slay means all that much given how poorly he played a year ago. Meanwhile, Trufant is a reliable, steady veteran. Though you’d ideally like a better #1 corner than him, you can also have a lot worse. As of this moment, the #2 corner would seem to be Amani Oruwariye, which is partly a function of Jeff Okudah’s inexperience, but also of Oruwariye’s growth. A 2019 draft pick who slid from the projected second round to the Lions in the fifth, Oruwariye looked much the part of a projected second rounder last season, one of the only bright spots in the secondary when he actually got to play.

Reports from training camp are quite positive about Oruwariye and I honestly don’t feel bad about him as the starting #2. Okudah will be a dude, and maybe this season, but it probably won’t happen right away. Okudah’s been greatly hurt by the fact the team didn’t practice all spring/summer and played no preseason games due to COVID. Ideally he should be a major contributor by midseason. At safety, I’m looking for Tracy Walker to make another jump after maturing into a quality starter last year, and I already mentioned the Harmon pickup, meanwhile second year player Will Harris needs to show some improvement. As a whole, I don’t think this group is the second coming of the Legion of Boom, but I am surprisingly okay with the secondary entering the season. Furthermore, I think they should be the strength of the 2020 defense. Even though that makes me incredibly nauseous to say, because calling the Lions’ secondary a strength just one year after the 2019 season feels like calling the city of Pripyat, Ukraine, a bastion of environmental health just one year after the Chernobyl meltdown. 

What I don’t feel good about: the coaching staff
On paper, this is a team that should have a shot to make a run. They’ve got what could be a lethal offense, they brought in a fair bit of talent to shore up the defense, and have a very good QB. But the cloud hanging over all of this is the utter lack of faith that I, and everyone in the football world, have in Matt Patricia and his staff. I’m not including Darrell Bevell in this, since he runs the offense on his own and I’ve already buttered him up with praise. But as for the defense and the team overall, this coaching staff has given us nothing to be optimistic about. It started with a catastrophe of a Monday Night Football debut back in 2018, where the Lions self-immolated on national TV and Matt Patricia looked on with a bewildered and hapless face. Then we heard complaints from veteran players about the toxic culture, and complete lack of respect from other coaches. Patricia has been uncompromising, stubborn, unlikable, and flatly, unsuccessful as a Lions head coach. The team made some necessary coaching moves in the offseason, firing struggling OL coach Jeff Davidson, and replacing 90 year-old defensive coordinator Paul Pasqualoni with Cory Undlin. I want to believe in these moves, but I’ve been given not an ounce of reason to believe from the past two years, and I won’t until the results give me reason to. 

What I feel good about: the winnability of the NFC North
As it stands right now, the Lions are the only team in the division that I think got demonstrably better in the offseason. Minnesota ran into cap hell and had to jettison their entire CB group, as well as Linval Joseph, Stefon, Diggs, and Everson Griffen, though they have restocked some of those areas with top draft picks, as well as excellent pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue. Minnesota still has great players across the roster, but there’s considerable uncertainty with the Vikings and it’s hard not to think there won’t be at least a small step back from them this year. Green Bay had a puzzling offseason where they spent their most valuable asset to pick a guy who probably won’t play this season (Jordan Love). The Packers didn’t make many moves at all and roll mostly the same team into the season, a team that I thought (and the Pythagorean theorem backs up) was supremely overrated. They were, according to expected W/L, more like a 10-6 team than a 13-3 one and I concur with that judgement. The Bears also didn’t make any real moves, losing a couple parts off the defense and bringing in Nick Foles, although Mitch Trubisky is the starter heading into week one. So long as Trubisky is the starter, it’s hard to feel like Chicago has a real shot to be a superpower. All told, I think nine wins could win the division, though you may want ten to be safe. For the record, Football Outsiders’ DVOA projections for the season see all four teams around 8-8 and that doesn’t feel that far off at this time. 

Concluding thoughts
The 2020 Lions season feels like a true crossroads for the future of the franchise. The current GM, coach, and QB are all on the line this year because if things fall apart again and the team finishes 4-12, I think the whole management group has to be fired and it’s time to draft one of Fields, Lance, or Lawrence in April and start over. But if the team makes a run, maybe Detroit keeps Stafford around and tries to build around him the way the Saints have with an aging Brees. Unfortunately it’s hard not to feel like 7-9/8-8 is the most logical prediction. That’s what the team probably was last season, had Stafford played a full 16 games, and while they’ve added a lot of pieces compared to that, the coaching staff remains the gargantuan question mark over all of this. 

A path for the Lions to make the playoffs probably runs through a monster offense and a passable defense. With the amount of firepower the offense has, as we stated previously, a top five finish is very much on the table. When you have that kind of unit on one side of the ball, you don’t need that much from the other side of the ball to be a playoff team. But you do need something and they didn’t have that last year defensively. The Lions need a defense that can get some stops. Not many, but some. If the defense can just hold opponents to 24 or so points per game against, while the offense surges to up 28 or so points per game for, over a sixteen game season that would translate out to a +64 point differential, which is indicative of a 10-6 team, roughly speaking. That should be enough to win the division. 

So Detroit doesn’t need the defense to be incredible, but just to get enough stops to let the offense do the work. And still I’m rather unsteady about whether that can happen or not, simply because of how poor the defense has been in the past two seasons. The other factor to discuss is the schedule, which is extremely front-loaded. The Lions will face Chicago at home week 1, which is a must-win. After that it’s @Packers, @Cardinals, and home against the Saints. Detroit will need to win at least one of those. Following another early bye week, it’s @Jags, @Falcons, Colts, @Vikings. That’s a tough first eight games, where again, just beating Jacksonville and scratching one win out is the goal. Get to 4-4, and then beat Washington and @Carolina to be 6-4. From there, finishing 4-2 down the stretch against Houston, @Chicago, Packers, @Titans, Bucs, and Vikings gets you to ten wins. It’s not easy, but that’s the path to 10-6. 

Unfortunately, that kind of schedule presents the possibility that a few things don’t go your way early on and then all of a sudden you’re 1-3 or 0-4 and then there presents the risk of the team giving up and quitting. The NFL is a league of supreme parity, where almost every week is going to a battle and just a couple breaks can flip your season. The Lions saw that first hand last year on a haunted Monday night in Green Bay. Which is why it’s perhaps most reasonable to expect roughly 8-8, but beware: due to both the talent level of the team, as well as the possibility of the coaching staff or frustration with it tanking the season, the tails of probability in either direction, are pretty fat.

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    ​After the Washington Capitals won the Stanley Cup in 2018, things have consistently gone downwards for the team. Despite 3 straight seasons finishing with an impressive 105 points (including 2019-20 when scaled up to 82 games), the playoffs have been a different story. In 2019 the Caps lost to the Carolina Hurricanes in double overtime of game 7 after a 2-0 and 3-2 series lead. In the Corona-Cup of 2020, The Capitals came in third in the seeding round-robin losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning in a shootout and the Philadelphia Flyers before beating the Bruins. Then in the first round of the playoffs, they lost in 5 games to the New York Islanders.

    ​Holtby has been in net for all but 2 playoff games since he debuted on the Capital’s major league roster during the 2010-2011 season. With his contract ending this offseason (whenever that may be), it’s time to look back at how he has performed in net, what’s next for him, and most importantly, what roster will he be on at the start of the 2020-2021 season?

    Braden Holtby has been outstanding during his decade-long tenure with Washington for whom he has played 565 games, 97 of them in the postseason. He is a 2-time all-star, a Vezina winner, a William M. Jennings Trophy winner, and led the Capitals to a Stanley Cup championship. The team pays him 6.1 million dollars in cap hit which is high for a goalie but not in the top 5 most expensive netminders. The only problem with Holtby is his apparent decline. At the end of the 2016-17 season, Holtby got the second most all-star votes for a goalie, won the Jennings Trophy, came second in Vezina voting, and 10th in Hart voting. That season was also the last where he would receive any votes for any NHL awards or make it to the all-star game. The graphs below show Holtby’s numbers compared to the league averages in the two most useful goalie stats: Save percentage and goals-against average. As you can see, his GAA is increasing and his SV% is decreasing. On both stats he is sub-par. He’s on the wrong side of thirty and it looks like, assuming that he signs a long term contract, this will be his last serious chance at free-agency. How much money will he get?

    ​It’s a complicated question to answer. The first issue is the flat cap. Every year since its inception, the salary cap in the NHL has increased (except for the lockout-shortened season of 2012-13). Due to the coronavirus, the sports world has faced financial complications. 10-12 games per team were left unplayed and the postseason is without fans so a lot of ticket money was lost. Not to mention the fact that finances went down across the globe. NHL insiders have made it believed that the salary cap for the 2020-21 season will remain the same as the 2019-20 season at 81.5 million dollars.

    The second kink in the chain is the reality of Holtby’s stats. As commented on above, Holtby appears to be past his prime and in a period of decay. His numbers are in a death spiral and it is yet to be seen if he can pull out of it. A smart team would recognize that the likelihood of Holby performing as well as he did in D.C. is slim and would offer him less money than he is making now. However, this is NHL and smart teams are hard to come by. Last year, there was a goalie who was up for a contract negotiation like Holtby, was nearly the exact same age as Holby is, and was on a 3-year decline like Holtby: Sergei Bobrovsky. Bobrovsky left the Blue Jackets, where he developed into a generational talent, and signed with the Florida Panthers for a cool 10 million dollars. Bobrovsky proceeded to have the worst season of his career. The Panthers won only one postseason game: a qualifying round victory over the Islanders, and would fail to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Will teams learn from what happened to the Panthers or make the same mistake and roll the dice again? It’s yet to be seen but I’m not too optimistic.

    Washington is on a tight budget when it comes to the salary cap for the 2020-2021 season. They only have ten million dollars of cap space left and they have two defensemen and two forwards that need to be either re-signed or replaced. Even if all five of those players were allowed to walk by the Capitals and Washington signed five rookies at the league minimum, that would still only leave Washington with just under 6.5 million dollars to re-sign Holtby who, as we showed earlier, can fit into that budget. Of course, the Capitals could try to trade away some players to make some cap space for themselves but most of their contracts have three or more years remaining and the players are either too expensive for their skill level or not efficient financially as they still need to replace players who get shipped away. Having said that, it doesn’t seem likely or possible that the Caps can sign so many players for so little money and maintain enough cap space to re-sign their franchise goaltender.

San Jose Sharks: Could Be
    It is said that the Sharks are a rebuilding team and could definitely benefit from a veteran presence like Braden Holtby. The issues arise when you look at that statement more closely. They already have veteran presences like 41-year-old Joe Thornton and 35-year-old Brent Burns. The Sharks also already dropped a lot of cash on a 30-year-old goalie who hasn’t performed to the standards that they set for him. Martin Jones is paid 5.75 million dollars a year and since signing that contract has posted two straight .896 SV% seasons and a GAA of around 3.00. Jones also has a modified no-movement clause in which he submits a list of only three teams that the Sharks can trade him to. This essentially boils down to the fact that the Sharks are stuck with an overpaid, underperforming goaltender. Would they gamble on Braden Holtby after getting burned by Jones? Maybe, but it seems more likely that they would go for Matt Murray or Linus Ullmark who would cost them less in the event of another flop.

Detroit Red Wings: Top 3
    The Detroit Red Wings are an interesting team right now. They have 11 players who will be UFAs or RFAs in the coming offseason and over 34 million dollars in cap space. Not only that, but they have the truest mark of a rebuilding team: No contracts that go into the 2023-24 season. If the 2019-20 season was the last season of them intentionally tanking, we can expect them to re-sign key players like Anthony Mantha and Tyler Bertuzzi to long term contracts and start building the core that they will run with for the next half-decade. 

    ​The key position that the Red Wings need to fix with a free agent signing is goaltending. They started the season with their trust in Jimmy Howard. Throughout the season he played in 27 games and won only two of them. He’s old, his contract is expiring this offseason and he’s abysmal. He posted a SV% of less than .85 in a third of his starts. You might remember that a QS% of 50% is considered bad, Howard’s QS% was 26%! The goalie the Red Wings switched to was Jonathan Bernier who was better but still had a QS% of 42%. The Red Wings need a goalie and Holtby would be a massive improvement for them. They could sign Holtby and build a defensive core around his playstyle since they have zero defensemen on contract for the 2021-22 season.

​    Goaltending is the last piece that this team needs to make it deep in the playoffs. If I were Holtby and I wanted to play for the best possible team, I would go to Edmonton and sign a contract through the 2025-26 season, which is the same year that Connor McDavid’s contract ends. Edmonton would like this because Holtby’s contract would be off the books in time to give McDavid the biggest contract imaginable and Holby would like this because if his decline does continue, he’s still getting paid for years and might even get another ring. On a more personal note, Holtby was born and raised in Loydminster which is on the border of Saskatchewan and Alberta. The closest NHL team to Loydminster is Edmonton. This makes the most sense.



    The question I posed at the beginning of this article is so complex because of Holtby’s declining numbers, Bobrovsky’s contract, and each team having their own pros and cons. At the end of the day, the teams that make the most sense to me are the Senators, Red Wings, and Oilers. Out of those teams, I would say that he is most probably going to Edmonton in the offseason but no matter where he ends up, I will be watching very closely to see if it’s another flop or if he hoists the cup again.