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Previewing Michigan vs. Notre Dame

8/31/2018

With our season preview series wrapped up, we now commence weekly articles analyzing the upcoming matchups, starting with week 1 against Notre Dame:

Alex: We’re finally on the doorstep of the season! Just one day until Michigan football takes the field against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and we’re here to break it down. Before we get into the matchups, do you like the decision to put Notre Dame back on the schedule?

Evan: I literally can’t contain my excitement. We are less than 36 hours from kickoff. And to answer your question, no. The Playoff Committee has clearly shown that they do not reward difficult schedules. This game can only hurt Michigan, there is almost no way that it helps. Michigan should be scheduling a bad power 5 team, a MAC team, and some other bad team for their three non conference games every year. What do you think?

Alex: I agree with your points. The SEC routinely has cupcake non-conference schedules and get rewarded with playoff berths. That said, I also have a soft spot for the Michigan-Notre Dame rivalry. It was one of the few bright spots of the Rich Rod/Hoke era, and Michigan and Notre Dame are just kind of made for each other. Two programs where fans expect far more than what is reasonable and frequently get far less than expected.

Onto the game, the biggest question for Notre Dame appears to be at quarterback. ND Coach Brian Kelly has mentioned that he is open to playing both Brandon Wimbush (who started most of the games last year) and Ian Book (who relieved Wimbush in the Citrus Bowl). Do you think we’ll see both guys on Saturday night?

Evan: I think we will see both guys. Wimbush is a great runner and has a big arm, but he’s one of the least accurate quarterbacks I have ever seen play for Notre Dame. I anticipate Book seeing the field sometime mid-second quarter or later. Regardless of who is taking snaps, the Michigan defense is going to feast on these quarterbacks. I don’t expect either one of them to have any kind of sustained success. Here’s a question for you: over/under 250 total yards and 14 points for Notre Dame?

Alex: I’ll take the under on 250 total yards. Notre Dame had an elite rushing offense a year ago (#3 in S&P+), but they lose starting RB Josh Adams, as well as the left side of their offensive line. They still have a lot of pieces on the offensive line, but the extreme weakness of their passing attack (Wimbush completed just 49.5% of passes a year ago) will mean that Michigan can put safeties in the box and let them and the linebackers tee off on the running game. That said, points are a little tougher to say because that brings into question one of the biggest factors of this contest: turnovers.

Evan: Don’t say that word too loudly. It’s everyone’s biggest fear for new Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson and this offense. After some of the horrific fumbles and interceptions last year, I think the Michigan faithful will come into the season with a little bit of PTSD. Until Patterson and the skill position players can prove that they will take care of the football, everybody will be on edge when Michigan has the ball.

That being said, I anticipate very conservative play calling from Harbaugh and his offensive staff, especially early in the game. The defense on the other hand, will probably bring pressure early and often. I think the Michigan defense creates 3 turnovers in this game, and Michigan only gives the ball away once.

Alex: That’s a good point because it seems as if Juwann Bushell-Beatty is going to start this game on saturday, despite reports seemingly suggesting that James Hudson is ahead of him on the depth chart. That would probably be because of two factors: wanting a veteran to start a night game in a hostile environment rather than a freshman in his first ever start. The second factor is that while being a pretty bad pass blocker, JBB is also a pretty good run blocker. I anticipate that the game plan will be rather conservative, as you suggested. In all likelihood, Michigan wants to just get a lead, let their defense do the work, and then maul Notre Dame on the ground to salt the game away. Patterson shouldn’t be asked to do too much, just to hit on play action and burn the safeties if DPJ slips by them down the field.

I suppose you never answered the over/under question you asked me?

Evan: Under on the yards. Because the NCAA still counts sacks as negative yards, I’m expecting ND’s total rushing yards to be under 50 yards. The passing yards will be close, but with ND rotating quarterbacks, I doubt that they get over 200. As far as points, I think 14 is the number. Actually, I think 250 yards and 14 points are both right around my numbers for Notre Dame.

And in response to your analysis about JBB and the game plan, I think you are spot on. As soon as Michigan can get some points on the board, it’s the defense’s game from there. My biggest concern for the game is actually special teams. If DPJ muffs a punt early or there’s a botched punt by whoever ends up starting, it could sway momentum and throw off the defense. That is the most likely way I could see Michigan getting behind early. They just need to be calm, execute, and not make any egregious mistakes. Maybe the California sunshine I got all summer just made me too optimistic (at least that’s what you’ve been saying to me for a month), but it feels like this is Michigan’s game to lose.

Alex: It’s definitely a game where feeling optimism makes me nervous because Notre Dame-Michigan games are always bonkers. And also, the referees when you play @Notre Dame are always very questionable, so Michigan can’t let the game come down to a close call on a pass interference or something.

Let’s wrap this up. Give me the x-factor of the game and your prediction (score).

Evan: I just hinted at my x-factor: special teams. That is the one area that I don’t have full confidence in Michigan controlling. Both kicking and returning are question marks, so hopefully Harbaugh has those problems solved. I think Michigan wins 20-14. Not a missed XP, but two field goals for Quinn Nordin (and a long miss at some point too). The defense dominates ND for most of the night and creates turnovers that lead to scoring opportunities. What do you think?

Alex: My X-Factor is the offensive line. I know it’s an easy way out, but if it’s a close game, and I suspect it will be, whether the offensive line can grind out crucial first downs late against a stout defense could be the difference between winning and losing. Still, I think Michigan is the better team, so I’m picking the Wolverines, 17-13.

Image Credit: https://www.uhnd.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/notre-dame-michigan-rivalry.jpg

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Michigan Season Preview Part 3: Special Teams & More

8/27/2018

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In preparation for the 2018 Michigan Football season, WCBN Sports brings you a back-and-forth discussion between Alex Drain and Evan Oesterle of the Michigan roster and season, broken into several pieces that have bee released over the course of the past several days before this Saturday's season opener. Then once the season commences, expect weekly articles recapping the preceding game and previewing the next game. Today we continue the series by looking at the special teams positions, as well as discussing recent team developments and some big picture ideas:

Alex: We are back after the weekend and it’s officially game week! At the release of this article, the days between today and Michigan football’s season opener can finally be counted on one hand. Today’s main focus will be special teams, as well as some big picture questions (in place of superlatives), but first we have some important news to discuss. The team held scrimmage on Saturday and then had open practice on Sunday, the latter of which I was at. But before we talk about practice, the scrimmage brought casualties that need to be discussed. Rashan Gary was reportedly dinged up but it does not appear to be anything serious, so take a sigh of relief. However, unfortunately, WR Tarik Black suffered a foot injury and was taken off on a cart. The fear is that it could be broken, which could put him out 1-2 months. He had an MRI on Sunday, of which the results we do not know. At bare minimum, Michigan will be without Black for the first few weeks of the season, so Evan, on a scale of 1-10 how nervous are you about this injury?

Evan: I can’t contain my excitement for game week. I had my first fantasy football draft this weekend and I’m starting to get into the full Fall mindset. I’m sure you have some good insights from the open practice that I’d like to hear about, but let’s start with the injury news. First, I’ve heard similar things regarding Gary’s injury - it isn’t that serious and he should be fully available for the Notre Dame game. That is good news. On the other hand, the word around Black’s foot injury is… less positive. There are two ways to answer your question. The first (and in my opinion, more important) way to answer is from the perspective of the detriment to Black himself. If it is true that he broke his foot, then that means he has now broken both of his feet and, assuming he’s out through mid-October at least, he will have only played 2.5 games through a season and a half. I feel terrible for the guy, as he was just telling media how he “couldn’t wait to get back” on the field this season after missing the last 10 games of his freshman campaign. This is devastating timing for an injury like this. He might also never be the same player again if the foot injuries start weighing on him mentally. In terms of the effect on him personally, I am a 9-level of nervous. The second way to answer is from the perspective of the team. We covered the wide receivers in our offensive preview last week, and while talented, the position group is notably thin. Nico Collins will have to step up, and the pressure on DPJ will intensify. But I don’t think this is the end of the world. Shea Patterson still has the talent to fuel a competent aerial attack, and Black has no effect on the run game. It hurts, no doubt about it, but this can’t be any kind of excuse for the team. Next man up. For the team, I am probably only in the 4-5 nervous range. What are your thoughts?

Alex: I’m mostly in agreement here. I’d probably say a 4. The reason Black’s injury was killer last year was because the rest of the WR positional group was dependent on freshmen, who as we explained are unreliable. This year the rest of the WR positional group is dependent on sophomores, all of whom are expected to be significantly better. If they’re not, then that’s a coaching failure. Nico Collins reportedly had a monster camp and he’s a monster human being having seen him in person at open practice. The roster lists him at 6’5” and 218 lbs., which is very Funchess-like. If nothing else, Collins becomes one of the team’s top X-Factors after only having one catch a year ago. He was pretty raw out of high school, though he was basically in the same tier recruiting-wise as Black. Now it’s the time for him to step up. The good news for Michigan overall is that Jim Harbaugh's system is heavy on TE’s, not WR’s, to begin with, and the Wolverines are still loaded with those, and guys like Zach Gentry and Nick Eubanks are athletic enough to slide over to WR and line up outside if needed. Depth is a concern, but the front-line talent should be alright. It really does suck for Black personally, and it’s hard not to begin to draw comparisons between him and say, Drake Harris, or to make an NFL comparison, Charles Rogers.

On the topic of open practice, there are a few things I want to note. First off, despite reports that James Hudson had jumped over Juwann Bushell-Beatty in practice last week, JBB was still lining up with the ones. It seems decently probable that JBB starts in South Bend but by the end of September, Hudson has usurped him at RT. Rashan Gary was dressed up in pads today, which is a good sign that he’s ready to go and whatever injury he had Saturday was not serious. Shea Patterson throws a pretty ball, though we pretty much already knew that. It was good to see the guys out there, running around, but there isn’t too much to be learned overall. Shall we begin the special teams discussion?

Evan: I am excited to see Patterson throw live next Saturday night. That’s about what I expected with the offensive line. I don’t fall for the fake sources that certain members of the media whom I won’t name working for certain media outlets that I also won’t name cite when making guarantees about depth chart updates.

Anyways, let’s talk special teams. I want to begin this discussion with a note about the importance of special teams. Most people think it is a small part of the game, and it certainly is in terms of the number of snaps. But let me present to you: the 2010 San Diego Chargers. Coming off a 13-3 season, they were expected to be a Super Bowl contender. During the 2010-11 season, they had the 1st ranked offense AND defense in the NFL. Sounds like a contender to me right? Well, they went 9-7 and missed the playoffs. Why, you ask? Well, I’m sure you figured out that the answer was their 32nd ranked special teams unit. They allowed 5 blocked punts, 3 kickoff returns for touchdowns, and 1 punt return for a touchdown. Their own return game was not good either. Moral of the story, don’t undervalue the importance of the kicking units.

Now that I’ve bored you to death with my old-man wisdom, let’s get this discussion started. Quinn Nordin was electric against Florida, but as the year progressed, his confidence began to waiver. Given how mental kicking is, how can he regain that?

Alex: To address your first point, special teams is also really important to a team like Michigan given the playing style. If defense is your strength, field position becomes pretty important, and in close games, which Michigan should be in a handful of, you can’t afford to be shanking FG’s. As for Nordin, I’m pretty hopeful. He was the #1 kicker in the country coming out of HS and as a whole he had a very promising freshman season. He started the year 14/16 and perfect on XP’s and then had a stretch across 4 games where he went 0/3 on FG’s and missed two XP’s. However, the reason I think he will have a strong year is he did manage to close out strong, going 4/4 in the Outback Bowl, including a pair of 40+ yarders, a rare bright spot in the bowl game. If he can maintain or slightly improve the 80% clip on FG’s, with that big leg, and maybe space out the misses a bit more, that will be fine with me. However, the 3 XP misses are unacceptable. He’s got the physical tools, he just needs more consistency. I’m not worried about Nordin. The punting game on the other hand?…

Evan: Robbins was, rough, to put it nicely. I heard Will Hart was taking the first reps today. Did Robbins ever come out? Robbins has high talent as well, although not quite as high. He was the 16th ranked punter coming out of high school and Harbaugh raved about him. But man, that bowl game was rough. I was there at the game, so I don’t know what the exact numbers were and I refuse to look them up. But all I have to say is, yikes. He shanked some horrific punts. Michigan has had some studs booting the ball in the last decade. Zolton Mesko was awesome and made it to the NFL, and other than the horrific moment that he will always be remembered for, Blake O’Neill was incredible for the Wolverines. But Robbins and Hart did not meet that standard last year. I hope that one of them emerges, but I can’t say I’m confident. The only reassuring thing is they probably won’t be punting from their own 20 all the time this year.

Alex: Brad Robbins was not seen anywhere today. Chris Partridge said there is a three man battle for punter, with Will Hart obviously being one. Presumably Brad Robbins is another, and the third spot either being Jake Moody or George Cataran, a pair of walk-on kickers Michigan took. The latter two were likely brought in to handle the kickoff duties once held by the departed James Foug. The problem with the punting situation is that we can’t really say who it’s going to be and if said person will be good until we see them. It’s not a position that gets much buzz and rumors never really spill out of camp at all, so we’re largely going in blind into this weekend’s game. But whoever it is just needs to be able to kick it down the field and not the 25 yard shanks that Robbins had. Next up is punt returning. It seems like DPJ is going to be the returner, do you like that move?

Evan: Yeah, hopefully someone emerges. Otherwise Harbaugh might need to take a trip to Australia next Spring. I do like DPJ returning. I know he struggled with decision-making while returning punts last year, and he did a whole lot of nothing most of the time when he did catch the ball cleanly. But that touchdown against Air Force and the return to the 11 yard line against Ohio State give me hope. We are talking about the #9 overall recruit from the 2017 recruiting class. He obviously has talent and if you go back and watch his high school tape, he made guys look silly regularly. Now that he has played against B1G Ten defenders for a year, I expect him to be tougher both physically and mentally. He was my pick for breakout player on offense, and part of my thought process is that I expect him to be electric in the return game as well. I know most people are more pessimistic on his potential development, which boat are you in?

Alex: I’m very optimistic about Peoples-Jones. Last season he looked like a super athletic true freshman. He was raw and had big moments in both receiving and kick-returning, and most of it stemmed from him not having the technique down. With an offseason of work, hopefully he should know where to be, when to call fair catch, etc.. Once the ball was in his hands, however, the electrifying athleticism took over. If he nails down the technical aspects of punt returning, I don’t see why he can’t be a Jabrill Peppers 2.0, recovering those hidden yards on punt returns that the 2016 team got so many of. As for kick returning, there’s not a whole lot to talk about here. The NCAA changed the rule to essentially eradicate kickoffs without actually eradicating them. If you fair catch a kickoff anywhere within the 1-25 yard line, you get the ball at the 25. It’s hard to imagine why any team would bother even practicing kick returns at this point. With James Foug gone, one of those walk-on kickers will handle the duties and Michigan will still probably put Ambry Thomas back deep, but there’s not a lot to talk about here. Anything you want to mention?

Evan: Nothing besides that Michigan should just pop it up high and try to replicate what Foug did. The offense and defense will take over at the 25 every time. If Thomas ever does get a returnable one, I’d be excited to see what he does with it, but that should be rare. You mentioned earlier that we can’t really do superlatives because there are so few notable players, so I just want to throw in one more thing before we wrap up. The 2016 team was incredible at blocking field goals and punts. It would be great to see more of that, and I think we should based on the depth at linebacker and in the secondary. Those guys will be itching to make an impact in any way and the block units might just be their opportunity. Other than that, I’ll be patiently waiting for Saturday evening.

Alex: It will definitely be a great few days of anticipation in the lead up to Saturday. Before we go, I want to pose a big picture question for the season: is it Big Ten championship or bust in 2018?

Evan: Ugh. As many times as I’ve posed a similar question, I’ve grown to hate it. In one sense, yes. Harbaugh needs to silence the rivals by beating MSU and OSU and that would almost assuredly mean winning the conference. In another sense, well, that is a high bar to set for any team, especially one with the TOUGHEST SCHEDULE IN THE COUNTRY. I would say anything below 10 games is a major disappointment. Not winning the conference would hurt but not be a total disaster depending on how it happens. So to answer your question, kind of.

Alex: It’s a tough question, so that’s why I asked it. It is hard to hold any team to “Big Ten title or bust” standards when they play in the B1G East, especially one that is yet to break through. I feel like it will really depend on how the season plays out. If it’s mid-November and Michigan is 10-1 with the OSU game being for it all, then it is not at all unreasonable to hold that standard. If this team is what they could be, then that standard should absolutely apply. But right now it’s too early to tell, so I would go with “kind of” as well. Expectations ≠ definitions of success and so it’s important to make that distinction. The the bare minimum expectation of a season may not be the successful one and so we must be cognizant of that.

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That concludes Part III of the preview series, and the final installation of the preview portion. At the end of the week we will do an in depth preview of the Notre Dame game and you can also watch out for episode 1 of WCBN Sports’s new Michigan football podcast, likely to drop in the mid-week as well.

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2018 College Football Predictions

8/26/2018

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That's right Ed, WE'RE BACK

By: Nick Hornburg

The time has come. Here we stand on the eve of another season of College Football. There will be laughter, tears, ecstasy, upsets, dumb narratives, overreactions, less-than-genial fan behavior, and everything else we’ve come to expect from this lunacy that we love so dearly.

This means that it is also time for me, because I have no life, friends, or other commitments sufficient to take up all of my time, to take a crack (well, 130 cracks actually) at predicting how the season is going to go...for everybody. And now, all of you have the privilege (misfortune) of being able to read my unbelievably prescient (woefully inaccurate) tale of the 2018 College Football season.

A few notes before we get started:

Parentheses () denote conference record.
I have not picked a Top 25, nor have I selected the playoff teams, as those both involve variables other than the game results and team records.
These predictions were made before Week 0

COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2018 PREDICTIONS

SUN BELT

WEST
Arkansas State 10-2 (8-0)
Louisiana-Monroe 5-7 (4-4)
South Alabama 5-7 (4-4)
Louisiana Lafayette 4-8 (2-6)
Texas State 3-9 (2-6)

EAST
Appalachian State 10-2 (7-1)
Troy 9-3 (7-1)
Georgia Southern 6-6 (3-5)
Georgia State 4-8 (3-5)
Coastal Carolina 4-8 (3-5)

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Arkansas State over Appalachian State

CONFERENCE USA

WEST
Louisiana Tech 7-5 (5-3)
UAB 7-5 (4-4)
North Texas 6-6 (4-4)
Southern Mississippi 6-6 (4-4)
UTSA 5-7 (4-4)
Rice 4-9 (3-5)
UTEP 1-11 (0-8)

EAST
FAU 9-3 (7-1)
Marshall 8-4 (6-2)
Middle Tennessee 7-5 (6-2)
Western Kentucky 6-6 (4-4)
FIU 5-7 (4-4)
Old Dominion 6-6 (3-5)
Charlotte 3-9 (2-6)

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
FAU over Louisiana Tech

MID-AMERICAN

WEST
Northern Illinois 7-5 (7-1)
Toledo 8-4 (6-2)
Eastern Michigan 7-5 (5-3)
Western Michigan 6-6 (4-4)
Central Michigan 4-8 (3-5)
Ball State 3-9 (2-6)

EAST
Ohio 8-4 (6-2)
Buffalo 7-5 (5-3)
Bowling Green 5-7 (4-4)
Miami (Ohio) 5-7 (4-4)
Akron 4-8 (3-5)
Kent State 2-10 (1-7)

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Northern Illinois over Ohio

MOUNTAIN WEST

MOUNTAIN
Boise State 11-1 (8-0)
Wyoming 8-4 (6-2)
Colorado State 7-5 (5-3)
Utah State 7-5 (5-3)
Air Force 4-8 (3-5)
New Mexico 2-10 (0-8)

WEST
Fresno State 9-3 (7-1)
San Diego State 9-3 (6-2)
UNLV 6-6 (4-4)
Hawaii 4-9 (2-6)
Nevada 4-8 (2-6)
San Jose State 2-10 (1-7)

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Boise State over Fresno State

AMERICAN

EAST
Central Florida 11-1 (7-1)
Temple 8-4 (5-3)
South Florida 9-3 (5-3)
Cincinnati 6-6 (4-4)
East Carolina 3-9 (1-7)
Connecticut 2-10 (0-8)

WEST
Memphis 10-2 (7-1)
Houston 8-4 (5-3)
Southern Methodist 6-6 (4-4)
Navy 8-5 (4-4)
Tulsa 4-8 (3-5)
Tulane 4-8 (3-5)

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Central Florida over Memphis

INDEPENDENT

Notre Dame 10-2
BYU 7-5
Army 7-5
Massachusetts 5-7
New Mexico State 5-7
Liberty 3-9

PAC-12

NORTH
Washington 11-1 (9-0)
Stanford 9-3 (7-2)
Oregon 7-5 (4-5)
Washington State 7-5 (4-5)
California 5-7 (3-6)
Oregon State 1-11 (0-9)

SOUTH
USC 9-3 (7-2)
Utah 8-4 (5-4)
Arizona 8-4 (5-4)
UCLA 6-6 (4-5)
Colorado 3-9 (2-7)
Arizona State 3-9 (2-7)

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Washington over USC

BIG 12

Oklahoma 11-1 (8-1)
TCU 9-3 (7-2)
Oklahoma State 10-2 (7-2)
Texas 8-4 (6-3)
West Virginia 7-5 (4-5)
Kansas State 6-6 (4-5)
Iowa State 6-6 (4-5)
Texas Tech 6-6 (4-5)
Baylor 4-8 (1-8)
Kansas 2-10 (0-9)

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Oklahoma over TCU

BIG TEN

EAST
Ohio State 11-1 (8-1)
Michigan 10-2 (7-2)
Penn State 10-2 (7-2)
Michigan State 10-2 (7-2)
Rutgers 4-8 (2-7)
Indiana 5-7 (2-7)
Maryland 3-9 (1-8)

WEST
Wisconsin 10-2 (7-2)
Iowa 8-4 (5-4)
Northwestern 7-5 (5-4)
Purdue 5-7 (4-5)
Nebraska 6-6 (3-6)
Minnesota 5-7 (2-7)
Illinois 3-9 (1-8)

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Ohio State over Wisconsin

ATLANTIC COAST

ATLANTIC
Clemson 12-0 (8-0)
Louisville 8-4 (5-3)
North Carolina State 9-3 (5-3)
Florida State 7-5 (4-4)
Wake Forest 6-6 (3-5)
Boston College 6-6 (3-5)
Syracuse 5-7 (3-5)

COASTAL
Miami 11-1 (8-0)
Virginia Tech 8-4 (5-3)
Duke 6-6 (4-4)
Pittsburgh 5-7 (4-4)
North Carolina 5-7 (3-5)
Georgia Tech 6-6 (3-5)
Virginia 5-7 (2-6)

CHAMPIONSHIP
Clemson over Miami

SOUTHEASTERN

EAST
Alabama 12-0 (8-0)
Auburn 10-2 (6-2)
LSU 9-3 (5-3)
Mississippi State 9-3 (5-3)
Texas A&M 8-4 (5-3)
Ole Miss 6-6 (3-5)
Arkansas 5-7 (1-7)

WEST
Georgia 11-1 (7-1)
Florida 8-4 (5-3)
South Carolina 7-5 (4-4)
Missouri 7-5 (3-5)
Tennessee 5-7 (2-6)
Kentucky 4-8 (2-6)
Vanderbilt 4-8 (1-7)

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Georgia over Alabama

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On Urban Meyer and Morality in Sports

8/24/2018

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By: Alex Drain

For the most obsessive of sports fans, our teams become part of our lives, the players and coaches part of our families. We wear their jerseys and copy their mannerisms. We call them by their first names even though we have never met them before and probably never will. Our emotional state becomes far too attached to the material outcome of games, more than what any psychiatrist or doctor would recommend. This forms a connection that becomes rather thorny when we are presented with evidence that those very players and coaches we worship may in fact be bad people or at least have taken reprehensible actions.

It’s a script we’ve followed before. Joe Paterno and Penn State, Michael Vick and Atlanta, Aaron Hernandez and New England, Art Briles and Baylor, the list goes on and on. In the past month, we’ve added more names to the list, DJ Durkin and Maryland for one, but the main event has been Urban Meyer and Ohio State. The story is rather well documented by now, but to paraphrase it: Meyer employed Zach Smith, the grandson of former OSU head coach Earle Bruce and a player for Meyer at Bowling Green, for nearly a decade on his football teams at Florida and then Ohio State, first as a Graduate Assistant and then as a Wide Receivers Coach.

In 2009, Meyer was alerted of an incident of domestic abuse perpetrated by Smith against his wife Courtney. Smith was arrested by the Gainesville Police Department but Courtney Smith did not press charges, reportedly at the urging of Bruce and Hiram de Fries, a friend of Meyer’s. Meyer and his wife counseled the Smith family, according to Meyer himself at Big Ten Media Day back in July. In 2015, another incident of abuse occurred between Zach and Courtney Smith, with the Columbus Police Department again being called to the house but it is unclear if an arrest happened (the police records are sketchy). Courtney Smith then texted the images of her abuse to several of the Ohio State coaches’ wives, including Urban Meyer’s wife Shelley. Shelley Meyer told Smith she would tell Urban about it, but it is unclear if that ever happened. Courtney Smith finally divorced Zach Smith in 2016, though incidents continued to occur between the two, with a trespassing warning being issued against Zach Smith in December 2017. The 2015 incident came to light in the media in July of 2018, after which Smith was immediately dismissed from the program by Meyer. Meyer was then asked what he knew about the incident at Big Ten Media Day, claiming he had just learned about the incident and that was why Smith was fired. Of course with all the preceding details coming to light, Meyer’s Media Day comments were quite inconsistent with the truth and he’s revised his story and maintained he handled the protocol correctly and reported the incident to the AD when he learned about it…. in 2015.

Ohio State’s investigation concluded this week and as is typical in college sports, the morally correct thing was not done. The university suspended Meyer for 3 games, though he will get to coach practice during the week leading up to the games, and withheld one paycheck from Athletic Director Gene Smith. The press conference went about as poorly as one could possibly have imagined and words were twisted in such away that is almost remarkable, including improbable lines like “while those denials were plainly not accurate, Coach Meyer did not in our view deliberately lie”.

There was a lot to unpack in that press conference, but the thing that I continue to come back to is how three apologies were issued to “Buckeye Nation” before a single apology was issued to Courtney Smith. It was a small instance, but it sums up all you need to know about college sports. The team, its material success, and the fans who drive the revenue monster that is big time college athletics always comes first. Courtney Smith, the boys Jerry Sandusky sexually abused, and the countless women raped by Baylor football players are the tragic price that is so frequently paid by universities and its fan base alike to achieve fame, fortune, and athletic glory. While the university and its leadership, along with Meyer and Zach Smith are the ones most at fault, don’t think the fans are exempt here. We will follow our leaders and take their signals, willing to go to whatever lengths are necessary to justify their atrocities so that we can continue to feel warm and fuzzy every saturday in the fall.

At the end of the day, what is true about the Meyer situation is that it is a coach, an athletic department, and a university leadership team who frankly didn’t care and currently don’t care about domestic abuse at their school, so long as a revenue generating asset continues generating revenue. Meyer himself has now admitted to knowing about the 2015 incident, and the investigation determined he knew, yet the abuse against Courtney Smith continued and Zach Smith continued to coach at Ohio State. And when did Zach Smith stop coaching at Ohio State? When the public found out he was a horrible person. Not when Meyer found out, that was years ago. Not when Gene Smith found out. But when the public found out. The real concern in the eyes of leadership at Ohio State and Urban Meyer was not having a domestic abuser on your coaching staff, but letting the public know you have a domestic abuser on your coaching staff.

The independent report concluded that Meyer and Gene Smith did not handle the investigation into Zach Smith correctly, but in studying the reporting protocol of Meyer’s contract, we lose the forest for the trees. Meyer continues to call Earle Bruce a mentor and at Media Day acknowledged that he has a “relationship with that family”, yet when he was alerted of continuing allegations of domestic abuse by Zach Smith, he apparently did very little to show concern for the potential victim. Regardless of whether Urban Meyer violated the protocol of his contract or handled the investigation correctly, he was comfortable employing someone with so many red flags and someone who was causing so much harm to the rest of the world for years. If that doesn’t tell you all you need to know about Meyer’s moral character, I’m not sure what will.

That twisted view of morality and sports is why Meyer showed little to no remorse at the press conference Wednesday night and why he uttered the line “I’m sorry we are in this situation” as his idea of an apology to Courtney Smith. It’s why he said that he followed his “heart, not his head” in handling the Zach Smith situation. And it’s why, as various beat writers reported while the deliberations were ongoing Wednesday, that Meyer resisted any suspension because “he thinks he did nothing wrong”. Meyer learned nothing from the breaking of this scandal, and with the slap on the wrist that is his punishment, he will continue to learn nothing. If anything, his blindingly toxic arrogance has been emboldened and his descent into moral oblivion has been furthered. To the rest of the college football world, Urban Meyer has been exposed as a fraud who erected a phony moral code to try and distract fans from the fact he was willing to do whatever it took to win. But to Meyer himself, he has been validated. He will continue to keep his job so long as he continues to win and so long as fans are willing to go along with him as their coach.

What is truly terrifying about this whole debacle is not what Ohio State did, but the uncertainty we all must feel about what our own university would do placed in that situation. While it seems as if the entire college football world, aside from OSU fans, are aghast at the handling of the investigation and Meyer’s punishment, how would each of those individual fan bases react if it happened at their program? I can not say with an certainty that the University of Michigan would have behaved any differently had this situation involved Jim Harbaugh. I would like to believe that the Leaders and the Best would adhere to that standard, but how can we be sure? After all, Michigan handled sexual assault allegations against former kicker Brendan Gibbons in an abhorrent manner less than 5 years ago. And looking around the Big Ten, at the way Maryland has attempted to deal with the fallout of the death of Jordan McNair and Michigan State’s repeated failures to appropriately handle the Larry Nassar case, it doesn’t give me much confidence that this would turn out any differently at other schools.

What happened at Ohio State is not a unique failing, though it has been handled remarkably worse than say Baylor or Penn State, but a tragic disease that plagues all of sports. Our connections to our teams leads us to such a point that we are willing to do whatever it takes to justify the worst actions, so long as we can continue to get that excitement, that rush of a victory. Unfortunately, many of the Penn State fans who are condemning Urban Meyer today were the same ones defending Joe Paterno 7 years ago. Tribal allegiance and attachment to our teams trumps our moral inclination to do the right thing. The Ohio State University Board of Trustees, and the leadership teams at most all schools, are nothing more than accomplished fans. Their heart the same as any fan who packs Ohio Stadium or Michigan Stadium, just that they have the credentials in politics and academia to get a leadership position. And so it is no surprise that the final verdict was what it was.

Indeed this entire situation is incredibly predictable and that is what is the most damning fact of all. Damning not just of Ohio State, but of college sports in general. Brian Manzullo of the Detroit Free Press had my favorite quote on this topic “No matter how you thought this Urban Meyer saga was going to go, what took place today in Columbus is a total institutional failure at the expense of the student body. And if you’re bragging about how you knew all along he’d keep his job, stop and think about why that is.” The fact that most all fans knew how this was going down before it unfolded is an indictment not of the university, but of the whole damn college sports system. Right down to us, the fans. And so when you watch Michigan athletics take the field this school year, think about what lengths you’d be willing to go to defend an incident if it happened here in Ann Arbor. And contemplate your role in creating the system that sheltered and protected Zach Smith and continues to protect Urban Meyer.

Image Credit: https://sitecdn.10tv.com/sites/10tv.com/files/urbanmeyer8-22-18.jpg

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Michigan Football Season Preview Part 2 - Defense

8/24/2018

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In preparation for the 2018 Michigan Football season, WCBN Sports brings you a back-and-forth discussion between Alex Drain and Evan Oesterle of the Michigan roster and season, broken into several pieces that will be released over the course of the next 8 days prior to the season opener. Then once the season commences, expect weekly articles recapping the preceding game and previewing the next game. Today we continue the preview series by looking at the defensive roster:

Alex: We are back for part two of the series, today looking at the Michigan defense. A lot fewer questions on this side of the ball, but a lot more fun! Are you as excited to watch the Michigan defense as I am?

Evan: I don’t think there are words to describe how excited I am. Admittedly, I prefer defense over offense in general, but this Michigan defense has a chance to be an all-timer. Just think, a year ago at this time, we were talking about replacing 9-10 of 11 starters, depending on if you counted Hurst or Godin as a 2016 starter. Now this year, we are returning 9 of 11 starters from a defense that was already elite. I don’t know that there has been a Michigan unit I was more sure of in my lifetime. I don’t even know where to start, so I’ll let you choose.

Alex: Let’s begin by saying that Chase Winovich and Rashan Gary are going to be very, very good. The only real question is whether Rashan Gary ascends to an Ndamukong Suh caliber player, where’s he dominating every single game. The real questions on the D-Line lie with Aubrey Solomon and Michael Dwumfour. Solomon broke into the starting rotation in the middle of last season, and he looked like a true freshman with gigantic potential, which he was. Dwumfour didn’t see many snaps because he was behind Mo Freaking Hurst, but we’ve heard great things about him for two straight offseasons. First off, do you buy the Dwumfour hype?

Evan: I can’t believe Winovich came back, and I don’t think B1G Ten East offensive coordinators can either. What are defenses going to do? Double Rashan Gary? Use running backs to slow down Chase Winovich? That would leave the middle susceptible to Solomon, or the blitzing linebackers we will get to in a moment. To answer your question, yes. A couple years ago, heck maybe even last year, I would’ve been hesitant to anoint a guy who hasn’t done anything noteworthy on the field as a good defensive tackle. But I just can’t doubt anything Don Brown does. Will Dwumfour be as good as Hurst? Probably not. Will he be good enough to allow the three superstars he lines up with to have All American level years? Probably yes. Let me throw a question back at you now: has former number 1 overall recruit Rashan Gary somehow become slightly underrated due to the play of Nick Bosa and *insert any Clemson D-linemen here*?

Alex: I don’t think he’s underrated per se. If you look at NFL mock drafts for 2019, he is regularly listed as a top 10 guy because of that potential. He may be underrated in terms of production, because players like Khaleke Hudson, Devin Bush, and Chase Winovich were regularly stealing his sacks last season. I think if he begins to scrape the ceiling of his potential this season, he will firmly jump ahead of Bosa and those Clemson linemen. He’s that athletic.

Evan: That’s a fair assessment. Regardless, the defensive line should be a terror for opposing offenses. And that’s before we even look at the monsters behind them. I have to say, Devin Bush is well on his way to becoming my favorite Michigan player ever. I loved watching Jake Ryan play the linebacker position because he was so smart and such an effective tackler. Bush has those same good instincts and fundamentals, but he pairs it with freakish close-out speed for a guy his size and unbridled aggression that Don Brown must regularly dream about. And don’t forget about Khaleke Hudson. As electric as Jabrill Peppers was, I think we can agree that he was never meant to play Viper. Hudson, on the other hand, was born to play the position. The only question is who will man the weak-side next to these two killers.

Alex: The competition is between Sophomore Josh Ross, brother of former Michigan LB James Ross, and RS Sophomore Devin Gil. Ross was definitely the higher touted recruit and he was the only linebacker out of Michigan’s excellent 2017 recruiting class to not get redshirted, while Gil obviously is more experienced and was part of the same HS team as Josh Metellus and Devin Bush, so he has extra chemistry with the defensive players. Is it fair to say that whoever wins this job will probably be really good - and dare I say, an upgrade over Mike McCray?

Evan: I’d be surprised if the WLB position doesn’t produce more this year regardless of which player is there for the majority of snaps. Ross and Gil are both talented players and have had the opportunity to learn under Brown. I ultimately think Gil’s experience with Bush and Metellus that you mentioned will lead to him starting, but I could be totally wrong. Either way, that isn’t a position I’m worried about. How confident are you in this front 7 overall as both a run-stopping and pass-rushing unit?

Alex: I would say very confident. There was never really a time last year when the front 7 got beaten up, outside of the disaster in State College against PSU, but that was as much a football failure as it was Joe Moorhead being an offensive genius. Outside of that, this group was pretty lock down against the run and the pass last year. And then a lot of these guys return, only losing Hurst and McCray. There were occasionally moments when things would pop up, keeping contain against more mobile QB’s like Lewerke...

Evan: You mean #disrespekted Heisman contender Brian Lewerke? That guy? Sorry, go ahead.

Alex: ...Barrett/Haskins, and McSorely come to mind, as did the occasional linebacker coverage bust. But those instances were so infrequent that we can remember specifically the couple times they happened! With most all the dudes back and most importantly, a year older and more experienced, many of those issues should solve themselves. Oh and just like with the offense, a lot of these guys got thicc. They’re bigger, faster, and stronger. Before we move onto the secondary, I do think we should mention the amount of depth behind these starters. So if you want to talk about that for a minute, go ahead.

Evan: I’m glad you brought that up. The last couple years, the defensive line depth has been absurd. And while there is talent behind the starters, it is mostly young and raw. The linebacker depth this year is… extraordinary. Whoever loses the battle between Gil and Ross is sure to see the field a lot. Noah Furbush saw time last year, and while he wasn’t a world beater he was very solid. Jordan Glasgow has been a special teams stud for a couple years, but when he comes in at safety or Viper, he can be effective. Josh Uche has also seen playing time, most memorably at Viper in place of Peppers in the Orange Bowl against Florida State in 2016. Guys like Jordan Anthony and Drew Singleton haven’t even been mentioned this offseason and they are both highly touted recruits. I think it’s safe to say that even if Bush and Hudson both turn pro this year, the middle of this defense should be sound for years to come. Now for that secondary you were talking about, Don Brown has depth to work with as well. But we would be remiss if we didn’t start about by highlighting all-world corners David Long and LaVert Hill.

Alex: Did someone say depth? Because the depth at corner is better than it is at linebacker! Yes, David Long and LaVert Hill were excellent last season. They don’t get the respect they deserve from conventional sources, with David Long not even getting an All-Big Ten spot last year and Hill being stranded on the second team. Thankfully, the analyst types notice it, and Pro Football Focus has written quite a bit about how good this tandem is and Phil Steele ranked Michigan’s secondary as the #1 secondary in the country. A good deal of that is about depth. Ambry Thomas is probably now ready to go. He was a high 4 star recruit and he’s now in his second year. If that sounds familiar, it’s because that’s where Long and Hill were last season and they turned into elite corners immediately. If Ambry Thomas makes that same jump, and CB Coach Mike Zordich mentions him in the same way he mentions Long and Hill…… oh boy. Brandon Watson was a really solid nickel in 2017 and he’s back. Oh and Michigan inexplicably picked up transfer Casey Hughes, a cornerback who started 11 games on Utah’s #14 ranked S&P+ passing defense last season. How are all these guys going to get snaps?

Evan: Here is what I hope is the answer to your question: Thomas and Hughes steal snaps from Tyree Kinnel and Metellus. Now let me acknowledge that I feel bad for both of the returning safeties. Put them on 90% of defenses in America and they look like studs. But on Michigan’s wrecking crew, they stick out like sore thumbs as the least consistent players. Imagine this: Gary and Winovich coming off the edge, Solomon and Dwumfour pounding the middle, Devin Bush shooting a gap, Hudson and Gil covering the flats, Long and Hill locking down the outside receivers, and Hughes and Thomas manning the slot. That sure sounds like a recipe for disaster… for opposing defenses. I’m fascinated to see how Brown and Zordich balance the snaps of all of this talent in the secondary. We haven’t even mentioned Jaylen Kelly-Powell who could make a significant leap this year as well. And again, even if Long and Hill go to the NFL after the season, the guys waiting in the wings are sure to be up to the task of filling their shoes. Man oh man am I excited to watch this unit play.

Alex: I hope you’ve lightened up on Kinnel and Metellus, because you were a bit rough on them in the spring. They had a rocky end to the season, and Metellus certainly had a tough OSU game, to say the least. But they were overall pretty fine in 2017. They got beat on the occasional route and there were certainly a lot of circus catches made against Kinnel, a handful in that PSU game alone. It’s important to remember though that they were both first year starters last year, and they will have more experience. They should be fine.

Evan: Yeah, you’re probably right. The only thing I associate Josh Metellus with is dropping an interception against Ohio State at the 5 yard line that I firmly believe would have led to a Michigan win.

Alex: DON’T BRING THAT UP

Evan: Ok, ok. Remember that Jourdan Lewis interception against Wisconsin? That was more fun. Anyways, let’s wrap this up with some closing thoughts and superlatives. If this defense performs at the level I expect them to, the offense only needs to be above average for Michigan to be a CFP team. The only reason I could see them not performing is if offensive coordinators somehow figure out how to catch Joe Moorhead’s lightning in a bottle from that thrashing the Nittany Lions delivered. I just don’t see Don Brown letting that happen. My superlatives:

DPOY: Take your pick between Bush, Hudson, Gary, or either of the corners. I’ll go with Bush. I might be a bit biased (as I already admitted) because I enjoy watching him play so much. The only risk factor here is if he gets suspended for a game or two due to targeting penalties.

Breakout player: Aubrey Solomon. Playing next to Rashan Gary would probably make any DT look pretty good, but Solomon is a former 5 star, #1 overall DT, and #19 overall recruit. He has the talent to make a major sophomore leap.

X-Factors: The safeties. Whether its covering the middle of the field, the slots, or being the last line of defense against the run, the safeties were a liability last year. I’ll admit they were generally solid, but they allowed too many big plays. Let’s see if they can fix that.

Potential disappointment: Chase Winovich. Sorry. I know the fans love him. His hair, his pass-rushing aggression, etc. I just see him as more of a pass-rushing specialist than an every down DE. Hopefully, he makes me sound foolish.

Alex: Why do you always get to go first and make me come up with the contrarian/dark horse selections?

Evan: You can go first on Special Teams. That’ll give me a real challenge.

Alex: Here’re mine:

DPOY: I’m saying Hudson. He has the ability to be really special if he takes his coverage up another notch. He’s lightning quick, hits hard, and we saw glimpses of his ultimate potential a year ago, most notably the Minnesota game, where PJ Fleck decided to leave him unblocked all game long. Row the Boat! But anyways, Hudson could end up leaving after the season to go the NFL if he hits his ceiling and I think he gets there this year.

Breakout player: It’s gotta be Dwumfour, right? He’s been talked about so much and I think Michigan’s defense has reached the Alabama/Clemson/OSU status where we can just conclude that whoever is getting to start has probably beaten out a bunch of talented dudes and we can assume they’re going to be good. But the way they talk about the guy is incredible. Jim Harbaugh probably would have agreed to co-author this piece with us if it meant he could rave about Mike Dwumfour some more. With that kind of hype, I’m buying in.

X-Factor: It’s gotta be slot corner right? You said safeties, which is a similar idea, but slot corner was the one routinely weak spot in the defense a year ago, even if some of the times it got exploited was insane circus catches/certain left-handed Wisconsin QB’s making inexplicable NFL throws in gusty 38º weather. If that gets shored up, there ceases to be no real weak spot and any other complaining is just spoiled fans nitpicking.

Potential disappointment: IDK… Winovich was the only logical pick, simply because if Gary makes the jump he would steal Winovich’s sacks, but you already took him. So like, Aubrey Solomon if he’s not quite ready to be a star? Ambry Thomas if he isn’t quite at Hill/Long level yet? It’s basically pulling straws and the definition of disappointment on this side of the ball is “good but not great player who makes one or two notable mistakes over the course of a whole season”, which is a pretty ridiculous standard. So ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Image Credit: http://www2.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Rashan+Gary+Cincinnati+v+Michigan+m4eMbQGGEcfl.jpg

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That concludes Part 2 of our season preview series. Thanks to all those who read part 1, we got lots of great feedback, which is always appreciated! Join us next week for the special teams preview which is us getting the Wild Thing haircut and then proceeding to walk around the Diag until we can find someone who can punt a football more than 30 yards.

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New WNBA Playoff Format Adds Excitement to Postseason

8/22/2018

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By: Emily Herard

In the new postseason format, the first two rounds of the WNBA Playoffs are single-elimination games, creating more excitement for fans and putting more pressure on the teams. The top eight teams in the league, regardless of conference make the postseason. The No. 3 (Washington Mystics) and 4 (Connecticut Sun) seeds get a first-round bye and the No. 1 (Seattle Storm) and 2 (Atlanta Dream) seeds get an automatic placement in the semi-finals.

No. 8 Dallas Wings vs. No. 5 Phoenix Mercury
On Tuesday, the Phoenix Mercury pulled away in the second half to defeat the Dallas Wings 101-83, making Diana Taurasi (26 points, 12 assists) 12-0 in single-elimination games. Phoenix overpowered the Wings with the trio of Taurasi, Brittney Griner (17 points, 5 rebounds), and DeWanna Bonner (29 points, 11 rebounds). Liz Cambage, a leader in the MVP race and who scored the WNBA single-game scoring record of 53 points, was frustrated by Griner. Despite comments that she might not return to the WNBA next season, Cambage is considering returning to the league to help the Wings mount a deeper playoff run next season. The Mercury will face the No. 4 Connecticut Sun on Thursday at 8:30 pm on ESPN2.

No. 7 Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 6 L.A. Sparks
Tuesday’s second game featured the matchup between the Minnesota Lynx and L.A. Sparks. The Lynx and Sparks faced each other in the past three WNBA finals, creating an intense rivalry which has been good for the WNBA. The Sparks defeated the defending champions 75-68 behind Chelsea Gray’s 26 points. The Sparks got a much-needed boost from Nneka Ogwumike who returned to the starting lineup after being out with mono, contributing 19 points and 5 rebounds. This elimination loss ended the historic career of Lindsay Whalen (4 time WNBA Champion, 5 time WNBA All-Star, and 2 time Olympic Gold Medalist), who announced her retirement from the WNBA. Whalen is now the head coach of the Minnesota Golden Gophers and will continue to help grow the women’s game not only in Minnesota but across the country. The Sparks play the Washington Mystics in the second-round on Thursday at 6:30 pm on ESPN2.

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Michigan Season Preview Part 1: Offense

8/22/2018

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In preparation for the 2018 Michigan Football season, WCBN Sports brings you a back-and-forth discussion between Alex Drain and Evan Oesterle about the Michigan roster and season, broken into several pieces that will be released over the course of the next 10 days prior to the season opener. Then once the season commences, expect weekly articles recapping the preceding game and previewing the next game. Today we begin the preview series by looking at the offensive roster:

Evan: What’s up Alex? For the first time in years, I think I’m more optimistic about the upcoming season than most. Most of my optimism stems from the nine returning starters on defense, but I’m excited about the young talent on offense as well. Let’s start with the headliner: give me your thoughts on transfer QB Shea Patterson.

Alex: I’m doing well, only 10 long days until football season. As for Patterson, the potential is quite frankly, immense. The most obvious comparison when you watch him is Johnny Manziel, though those are huge shoes to fill for those who remember Johnny Football’s 2012 Heisman campaign. Can Patterson fulfill that potential? The jury’s out on that, but the tape is promising. I recommend both of MGoBlog’s UFR’s on Patterson’s play at Ole Miss for those interested in getting insight on the new QB. How about you?

Evan: Talent-wise, Shea is the most talented quarterback Jim Harbaugh has coached since Andrew Luck at Stanford. I think his mobility solves a lot of the problems Michigan had on offense last year (pass protection, receivers not getting open) but there are questions about his interceptions and inconsistency. Most of his numbers came against weaker opponents. Still, if Michigan had Patterson last year, they probably would have gone 11-1. I think this Michigan team is better than last year’s on both sides of the ball, but the schedule is significantly more difficult.

Alex: You bring up some good points there, and I think the role of Jim Harbaugh can’t be understated. Prior to last season, the consensus on Harbaugh was that he was the QB Whisperer. It was his thing. He took Colin Kaepernick from being a backup to one of the better guys in the league at San Francisco. He transformed Jake Rudock into an acceptable NFL draft pick from a middling Iowa QB and Wilton Speight into a top tier B1G QB and not just a 3-star guy with the first name of an 80 year old man. Yet last year, he couldn’t work his magic on anybody. You have to hope that Harbaugh can coach Shea into making fewer mistakes and that limiting interceptions can be an internal fix. And if he succeeds with Patterson, look out.

Evan: You mentioned what I was kinda stepping around… The whole Harbaugh - QB whisperer thing. Which brings up the overarching storyline of this season: Harbaugh’s make-or-break season as Michigan’s head coach. It is year 4, he has a roster full of his recruits, he hasn’t beaten OSU, and he’s struggled in “big games.” Harbaugh will be judged by Patterson’s play, fair or not, and the team’s record this year (especially in their five games against preseason top 25 opponents). But enough about Patterson. What about his supporting cast? The depth chart features a plethora of talented young receivers and a couple proven running backs.

Alex: Those are two separate things but they both have the chance to be really good. Starting with RB, Michigan’s running game was actually pretty good last year, despite the national narrative. They had a stellar performance against OSU and amassed S&P+’s #14 rushing attack. They return everybody that made a big difference in that department (RIP Ty Isaac), notably Karan Higdon and Chris Evans. The lightning-and-thunder contrast in their running styles gives Michigan a bit of everything and there’s lots to be excited about with them, no question. The pass-catchers are different, because they were pretty bad last year.

Evan: Karan Higdon (along with pretty much everyone else on the team) looks JACKED. He should be one of the best running backs in the country, and as you mentioned, Evans' speed/receiving style compliments him well. As far as the pass catchers go, Tarik Black flashed superstar potential when he was healthy. He’s everyone's breakout player of the year candidate, but mine is Donovan Peoples-Jones. Yes, I know he couldn’t get open or run routes last year. Everytime he fielded a punt I came close to a heart attack. He looked more like a 2-star than a 5-star. But that was with a few quarterbacks who were… mediocre at best. Now he has a quarterback as talented as he is throwing him the ball. I think the Black-DPJ duo is going to cause nightmares for defensive coordinators in the B1G Ten.

Alex: The big thing about last year’s receiving corps was inexperience, with both the aforementioned Black and Peoples-Jones being freshmen in 2017. They were pressed into duty because Kekoa Crawford turned into a pumpkin (and has now left the program) and beyond him and Grant Perry, there was basically no one else in the 2017 receiving corps who had any kind of prior experience. In general, freshmen receivers suck, largely because they tend to be big time athletes who are used to just being better at sports than the DB’s they face in HS and can run by everybody and not having to learn how to run routes. That’s especially true for someone as freakishly athletic as Peoples-Jones. So with him and Black not being freshmen anymore, the potential is dynamite.

If we do a quick stats-dive, Black posted 149 yards and 1 TD in the three games before the season-ending injury. Multiply that by 4 and you get about a 600 yard, 4 TD season, which would’ve been phenomenal for a freshman. A stat-line like that, or better, should be the expectation for a fully-healthy sophomore campaign from Black. As for DPJ, he had 277 yards and 0 TD’s in 2017. Borrowing from a post on the MGoBoard I found today, a 400+ yard jump for DPJ is very reasonable when compared to Michigan receivers of years past. Braylon Edwards saw a 1000 yard jump between Fr. and So. year, and David Terrell saw a 700 yard jump. That might be far too lofty for an expectation, and those are legendary Michigan receivers being used as comparisons, but expecting big breakout campaigns from both is not unreasonable.

Evan: I want to get into the o-line, which is probably the biggest question mark for the offense this year, but I just want to briefly mention that young players like Oliver Martin, Nico Collins, and Mustapha Muhammad could be big contributors in the passing game. As for the offensive line, I have full confidence in the interior of Cesar Ruiz, Ben Bredeson, and Michael Onwenu making a big leap this year. The tackle spots on the other hand, well… there’s cause for concern.

Alex: I suppose we should cue readers in on the current state of the tackle position in case they haven’t been following fall camp closely. The variety of insider reports seem to conclude that Junior Jon Runyan Jr. is most likely to lock down a spot, previously thought to be right tackle, but now perhaps likely to be left tackle. At the other position, probably RT, Senior Juwann-Bushell Beatty and RS Fr. James Hudson are locked in an incredibly tight battle. MGoBlog’s Seth Fisher summarized the insider reports to be that JBB could start the season opener, but be passed on the depth chart by Hudson by October. Sam Webb’s most recent update suggests that Hudson has pulled ahead. Either way, it’s very tight. True Fr. Jalen Mayfield is having a good camp according to everybody, but seems unlikely to start. All that said, what’s your ideal scenario for the tackles?

Evan: Maybe I’m stuck on the negatives, but I want the young guys in. I’m encouraged to hear that they’ve both been pushing for playing time. What’s my ideal scenario? Two absolutely elite tackles competing for All-B1G Ten honors. What do I think will happen? Runyan and JBB start at LT and RT against Notre Dame but by that three game gauntlet in the middle of the season (vs Wisconsin, @MSU, vs PSU), at least one of Mayfield or Hudson is starting. Ed Warinner appears to have made the positive impact on this group that Tim Drevno never could, so regardless of who starts, for the first time in almost two years, I am confident that they will perform at an adequate level. What would you consider to be acceptable for the offensive line this season?

Alex: I suppose I should’ve clarified realistic for the ideal scenario, because (*activates Rick Pitino voice*) Jake Long and Taylor Lewan aren’t walking through that door. For me, an acceptable offensive line performance is most importantly one that is cohesive and makes it seem like the players know what is going on. For all the talk of the RT black hole last year, the vast majority of problems on the O-Line were communication related, unblocked DL’s coming right up the gut, the perpetual inability of the line to recognize any kind of stunt whatsoever. There’s been a lot of encouraging murmurs in camp that at least Warinner has made a concerted effort to solve that problem. I can tolerate shakiness and a few sacks from inexperienced dudes at the tackle spot, as long as the scheme and line calls are good. This unit won’t be great, but it can help itself immensely if the players aren’t the Keystone Cops and just know the fundamentals of football, who to block and when to block them, etc.. That’s what I want to see most out of this group. Fundamentals.

Evan: The biggest thing that the coaching staff has done has reduced the number of plays and formations. It sounds weird, but less is absolutely more in this case. The simplified offense will make things easier on the line, Patterson, the play-callers, and the young receivers. You mentioned fundamentals, that is all this offense needs. The offense just needs to score ~24 points per game and not screw the defense over field position-wise. I strongly believe that they are capable of that.

Let’s wrap this up with some superlatives. I think Patterson ends up being a Heisman contender and the offensive MVP. The performance of slot receivers Grant Perry and Oliver Martin will end up being the X-Factors. I already said DPJ is my breakout guy. And… Chris Evans is the guy who will disappoint. I can back this one up too. Evans in 2017 vs Florida, MSU, PSU, Wisconsin, OSU, South Carolina: 69 carries, 238 yards, 3.45 ypc, 0 touchdowns. Evans in 2017 vs all other opponents: 66 carries, 447 yards, 6.77 ypc, 7 touchdowns (6 rushing, 1 receiving). I wonder if he will find this article on Twitter and bookmark it. Give me your Offensive MVP, X-Factor, Breakout, and Potential Disappointment for the more glamorous side of the ball.

Alex: My picks:

Offensive MVP: I’m going with Karan Higdon. Patterson could absolutely end up winning this category, and quite frankly Michigan fans should hope that he does, but I think Higdon is the safer pick. He emerged as a steady, every-down back, and if Evans struggles against better opponents like you mentioned, Higdon may get even more weight on his shoulders. If nothing else, he should become Michigan’s first 1,000 yard rusher since Fitz Toussaint.

X-Factor: The offensive line at large. Can they get the needed push to grind out close games? Can they not get the QB murdered again? Can they give Patterson time to find the open guy? That’s the definition of the X-Factor to me.

Breakout Player: This is a total stab in the dark, but I’m driving the Nick Eubanks bandwagon. I keep coming back to that catch he had against Florida, and it’s tantalizing. He has the speed to stretch the field at TE and be a real weapon, and he gets mentioned in fall camp rumors in the same breath as McKeon and Gentry, which seems to me that he’ll be used a good deal.

Potential Disappointment: Sean McKeon. I like that he’s a very well-rounded TE, but he doesn’t have one signature trait that stands out, aside from the fact he’s the best at blocking. If he can’t separate himself as a weapon from Zach Gentry, who has the size, or Eubanks, who has the speed, McKeon could find himself sinking more into the Tyrone Wheatley Jr. role, where he’s used more as a blocker than an offensive weapon.

Image credit: https://www.michigandaily.com/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/170918/eaa.FBC_.SpringGame.4.15.17.1067.JPG

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This concludes our Part 1 article on the offense. Come back on Friday to read Part 2, focusing on the defensive side of the ball, which is just us cackling maniacally about the legion of missiles that Don Brown is about to unleash on opposing defenses.

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2018-19 English Premier League Picks

8/10/2018

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By: Nick Hornburg

And so it begins. The English transfer window is shut, and barring a few international sales, the clubs have their final squads assembled, and it is time for the English Premier League to once again return. Last year, Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola took his buzzsaw of a squad to the rest of the league with no notion of mercy and set a Premier League record by earning 100 points, outscoring the next best club (Manchester United) by 19 points. We also bid goodbye to West Bromwich Albion, Stoke City and Swansea City, the three victims of relegation last season. This season, the Premier League welcomes Wolverhampton Wanderers, Cardiff City and Fulham up from the Championship. At the top, Guardiola is back with his sky-blue killing machine intact, Liverpool intends to score as many goals as ever, Chelsea swapped out a fiery, thick-haired Italian for a more aesthetically-inclined, chain-smoking Italian, and after 22 years, Arsene Wenger has finally hung up his jacket (the one that never quite managed to zip up) as a new day dawns for Arsenal. This season could go many different ways, and without further delay, here is one way:

20. Cardiff City -- Relegation
Last Year: 2 (Championship)
Neil Warnock and Cardiff city managed to beat the odds last season win automatic promotion to the Premier League, a feat that is, in and of itself, quite impressive. However, as Huddersfield manager David Wagner (more on him in a minute) once said, reaching the top flight is one thing, staying there is completely different. One thing that contrasts the Bluebirds from their recently-promoted peers is that while Wolves and Fulham piled on their opponents, Cardiff did not score that many goals, being the only team in the top 4 in the Championship to score less than 70 goals. That, coupled with a defense which was not remarkably better than their peers (they conceded 39 goals, same as Wolves), and a relatively quiet transfer window, could leave Cardiff very liable to be overwhelmed at a time when a lot of lower-table sides are increasing their firepower and playing a more continental style of football. Warnock and his players should be proud of where they are, but for now, reaching safety appears to be asking for too much.

19. Southampton -- Relegation
Last Year: 17
After chopping manager Mauricio Pellegrino laste last season, veteran manager Mark Hughes came in and after a rough start, managed to refocus his squad and clinched safety on the last day of the season. Hughes had a good run at Stoke City for a while, but an underwhelming 2016-17 season and a first half of 2017-18 that saw Stoke in the relegation zone (from which they never recovered) led to his dismissal. Southampton had a little bit of activity in the transfer window, bringing in midfielder Stuart Armstrong from Celtic and forward Mohamed Elyounoussi from Basel and, perhaps most notably, taking forward Danny Ings from Liverpool on loan but losing their primary source of creativity last season, Dusan Tadic, to Ajax. Asking two players new to the Premier League to replace the veteran Tadic seems like a bridge too far to me, and with Ings’ injury history and Charlie Austin likely confined to a bench role, the Saints also cast the figure of a club on its way down

18. Watford -- Relegation
Last Season: 14
Watford’s place in the table last season is misleading. The Hornets got off to an incredibly strong start under manager Marco Silva, but faded as the second half came around, and Watford’s infamously trigger-happy owner, Gino Pozzo showed Silva the door. Javi Gracia wasn’t awful by any means as Silva’s replacement, and extending midfielder Abdoulaye Doucoure is huge for the club, and goalkeeper Ben Foster is an improvement, but a lot of their goals last year came from players who didn’t start consistently, and with Troy Deeney no longer playing every week and Richarlison likely to be sorely missed, Watford is not well positioned to escape this time, and Gracia looks destined to be yet another former Watford manager. Then again, maybe the new manager who comes in January puts them squarely in the middle of the table.

17. Huddersfield Town
Last Season: 16
David Wagner has an interesting little project going on at Huddersfield. The Jurgen Klopp protege led the Terriers up to the top flight in a season in which some pundits had them going down to League One, then, nearly unanimously picked to finish at the bottom of the table last season, Wagner kept them up. Looking back at the numbers, this feat looks even more impressive, considering how horrible they were when attacking. The offseason has largely seen Huddersfield keep continuity by making loan deals made last season permanent, and perhaps this continuity will allow Wagner, an attack-minded manager who mostly played negative last season in order to stay up, to get more aggressive tactically and improve on their ghastly 28 league goals scored last season. The consensus, once again, is that they’re likely to go down, but a young team that survived last season has now matured by a year and is led by a manager who has thus far proved everybody wrong.

16. Brighton and Hove Albion
Last Season: 15
Also tipped for relegation last season, Brighton, led by Chris Hughton, clinched safety with two weeks to spare with a 1-0 win over Manchester United. The transfer season has largely been spent shoring up the defense, bringing in Bundesliga defenders Bernardo and Leon Balogun to shore up an already strong core with Mathew Ryan in goal and Lewis Dunk and Shane Duffy in central defense. However, they haven’t done much to improve the attacking end. Theoretically, they should be strong going forward with a talented and dangerous midfield (Pascal Groß, Davy Pröpper and Anthony Knockaert) but somehow, with that midfield, they are immensely one-dimensional, mostly relying on the effective but quickly aging Glenn Murray (14 goals in 2017-18). Not unlike last year, the Seagulls shouldn’t concede a lot of goals, but don’t expect them to score a lot either.

15. Bournemouth
Last Season: 12
Bournemouth flirted with disaster at both the start and end of last season before finally settling in at the middle of the table by season’s end. Eddie Howe, who is somehow still only 40 years old, has been tipped for seemingly every open job in England (including, but not limited to: Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City and England), and yet he remains on the touchline at the diminutive Vitality Stadium, punching above his club’s weight class in terms of money, prestige and overall quality. Realistically, Bournemouth could be relegated this season and Howe would still likely be untouchable, but to his detriment, an unusually strong set of promoted clubs could leave the Cherries in for a bit of a nervy season. Bournemouth’s potent strike force of Callum Wilson (10 goals) and Joshua King (8 goals) is back, and a strong spine consisting of goalkeeper Asmir Begovic and stalwart defenders Nathan Ake and Charlie Daniels should leave Howe, who has led Bournemouth to two promotions and no relegations in his career, relatively confident in safety. Unfortunately, with the league getting tougher, they may not be able to grasp much more than that this season.

14. Burnley
Last Season: 7
The endearingly hoarse Sean Dyche and Burnley pulled off one of the more surprising feats of the season, as a club tipped by some for relegation shot up to seventh in the table and taking the last spot in the Europa League. This time around, it will be a lot more challenging. It isn’t rare to see bigger clubs have noticeable issues juggling the Premier League with Thursday night games in the Europa League, so it is very reasonable to expect Burnley to struggle to keep pace. They haven’t brought in a lot of new players, but the one they have brought in should be helpful, buying center back Ben Gibson from Middlesbrough to bolster an already strong defense, and buying Derby County striker Matej Vydra to support last season’s wrecking crew of Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes (19 league goals combined), but expect their midfield to be punished, as they don’t have much depth and the Europa league should take its toll. Burnley ground out results with surprising consistency last season, and relegation probably shouldn’t be a concern this season, but don’t expect a repeat of last season.

13. Wolverhampton Wanderers
Last Season: 1 (Championship)
This is where it gets fun. Wolves ran roughshod over the Championship last season under manager Nuno Espirito Santo, and now here they come with an already good team, anchored by Ruben Neves and Diogo Jota buffed by an aggressive transfer window, where they brought in Portugal goalkeeper Rui Patricio, winger Adama Traore and midfielder Joao Moutinho, among others. On paper, they are more than capable of finishing in the top half of the table, but this is a side largely comprised of players, Atletico Madrid castoff Jota notwithstanding, who are not experienced with football at this level. Tearing through Championship defenses is one thing, but Wolves’ attack is likely to struggle against the more organized and physical defenders the English top flight is known for, and bigger clubs should blunt those defensive numbers a fair bit. This is still a team that can and should punch its weight in the league, but I’ll need to see more of these players before I pick them to go straight from promotion to a top half finish.

12. Leicester City
Last Season: 9
Yet another season removed from their Premier League title in 2015-16 which continues to be beyond belief to many, Leicester was rooted in the relegation zone before manager Craig Shakespeare was axed and Claude Puel returned the Foxes to the top half of the league, with a poor close to the season keeping them from more. After three years of speculation, Riyad Mahrez was finally sold, and Leicester pocketed the money and brought in center backs Caglar Soyuncu, Jonny Evans and Filip Benkovic to complement Harry Maguire, and brought in attacking midfielder James Maddison from Norwich City. This squad has all the makings of an effective counter-attacking side, with a solid cluster of center backs and defensive midfielders, and an impressive set of fast attacking players, with Maddison, Demarai Gray, Marc Albrighton, Kelechi Iheanacho, Shinji Okazaki, and, most especially, center forward Jamie Vardy (20 league goals in 2017-18). Losing Mahrez sets them back quite a bit on the pitch, but Puel’s side should still be able to hold their own.

11. Newcastle United
Last Season: 10
News of the Rafalution’s imminent demise is greatly exaggerated. Yes, Mike Ashley is a horrendous owner who is giving Rafa Benitez a raw deal with transfer money, yes the players aren’t great and yes, scoring goals is still going to be a bit of a challenge. However, if you peer beyond the figure of Rafa Benitez looking like a broken man when talking about transfers, you will see a side that improved dramatically as the season went on. Jamaal Lascelles is still leading the team and organizing the defense, Jonjo Shelvey is still the midfield anchor (when he’s not stepping on people of course), Kenedy is back after looking very good at the end of the season, St. James Park is still a fortress, and, in case anybody has forgotten, Rafa Benitez is still the manager. As far as goals are concerned, the Magpies still won’t be great in attack, but Salomon Rondon should be an upgrade over Dwight Gayle at center forward, and if he isn’t, Yoshinori Muto will be. Ki Sung-Yueng should provide midfield depth, same at center back with Fabian Schär, and if Shelvey can string together a full season as the pivot midfielder, Newcastle should be able to sustain the strides it made last season, even if substantial improvement may not be likely.

10. Crystal Palace
Last Season: 11
Crystal Palace may have had the most linear season in the league last season. It was two months before they even so much as earned a single solitary point, then became merely bad, then inconsistent, and were genuinely good by the end of the season. Roy Hodgson, given up for dead after England’s loss to Iceland in the 2016 Euros, has restored his reputation to a certain degree with his recent salvage job at Selhurst Park and now the veteran manager has a fully healthy squad and some nice new toys for this upcoming season. Palace got hit hard by injuries, losing defender Scott Dann and captain Jason Puncheon early on, with Mamadou Sakho and star winger Wilfried Zaha also missing time with injuries, and striker Christian Benteke might as well have been injured, scoring a mere 3 goals in 30 games. Now they’re all back and fit, and Hodgson has added a pair of midfield anchors in Max Meyer and Cheikhou Kouyate and brought in another stiker, Jordan Ayew on loan. With the depth the Eagles have, Palace should have a high floor. If everyone stays healthy, Ayew adjusts well and Benteke returns to his old self, they might not even notice the floor.

9. Fulham
Last Season: 3 (Championship)
The other recently promoted side that is going all-out, Fulham has been every bit as aggressive in the transfer window as anybody. Unlike Wolves, the Cottagers have brought in quite a few players with top flight experience, such as Alfie Mawson, Calum Chambers, Sergio Rico, Timothy Fosu-Mensah, and Andre Schürrle. They also received a big boost when they were make to permanently acquire 2018 loanee and serial goalscorer Aleksandar Mitrovic. With an already strong spine involving teenager Ryan Sessegnon and captain Tom Cairney, Slavisa Jokanovic has a side that can do serious damage in the league, with a better mix of experience and upside than Wolves and more firepower than sides like Newcastle. And what’s more, I haven’t even mentioned the unexpected signing of Nice central midfielder (and alleged target of Arsenal, Chelsea and Barcelona) Jean-Michael Seri.

8. West Ham United
Last Season: 13
HE’S BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACK! Manuel Pellegrini makes his return to the Premier League after winning the title with Manchester City in 2013-14 and evidently isn’t messing around, as West Ham, whose fans mutinied during a 3-0 home loss to Burnley last season, just bought a bunch of attacking firepower. The Hammers already had a nice set of attackers with playmaker Manuel Lanzini, striker Marko Arnautovic and goal poacher Javier Hernandez. Now they’ve added a pair of wingers in Felipe Anderson and Andriy Yarmolenko and another striker in Lucas Perez. Furthermore, they bolstered the back with the additions of central defender Issa Diop and veteran goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski, and raided the bargain bin brilliantly, signing Jack Wilshere to man the middle of the park with club captain Mark Noble. That is a lot of creativity suddenly added to a side that primarily relied on individual moments from Lanzini and Arnautovic last season. By the way, Arnautovic had about as bad a first six months as can be last season, and still finished one of the most productive strikers in the league (11 goals, 7 assists). David Moyes and his drudgery saved West Ham from relegation last season, now Pellegrini can make that a distant memory.

7. Everton -- Possible Europa League Qualification
Last Season: 8
Last summer, Everton made a statement of intent with an aggressive transfer window, bringing in England hero Wayne Rooney, midfielders Gylfi Sigurdsson and Davy Klaasen, keeper Jordan Pickford, among others with the expressed goal of breaking into the top 6. It went horribly, the Toffees bottomed out, Ronald Koeman got the bullet, they had to bring in Big Sam Allardyce to sort everything out, and now here they are, doing the exact same thing again. Everton didn’t sign massive amounts of players this time around, but they did get some awfully good ones, raiding Barcelona for defenders Yerry Mina and Lucas Digne, and central midfielder Andre Gomes. They also acquired a pair of Brazilian attackers in Bernard and Richarlison. Perhaps most importantly, they got Marco Silva, the manager who had Watford rolling before Everton stole his heart in October before finally getting him this summer. Rooney and Klaasen are gone, but Sigurdsson is still there, and can still throw darts from set pieces. The defense has the quality, led by captain Phil Jagielka, and augmented considerably by Mina and Digne, while Idrissa Gueye can partner with Gomes. That makes Domin Calvert-Lewin immensely important to this working. The striker didn’t score very much last season, but he’s young, fast, and now has a lot of horses around him. With Silva in charge, and strong players at most positions, this is a side that can put a scare into the top clubs. Then again, I said the same thing last year.

6. Manchester United -- Possible Europa League Qualification
Last Season: 2
Jose Mourinho giveth, Jose Mourinho taketh away. Yes, the fated third year has arrived, and United’s mercurial manager has seemingly embraced his curse at Old Trafford. The Red Devils have suffered through a horrendous offseason, with Mourinho openly whining about his players playing in the world cup, openly criticizing said players, and for a summer-long transfer window, only has Shaktar midfielder Fred to show. There’s quite a bit of negativity around the club that began to manifest itself toward the end of last season, with a string of 1-0 losses where Mourinho, equipped with Paul Pogba, Anthony Martial, Romelu Lukaku, and Marcus Rashford, refused to emerge from his bus and get points that should’ve been a mere formality. This is an immensely tough pick to make because the players listed above are immensely capable, Nemanja Matic was a fantastic signing last year, David De Gea remains one of the best keepers in the world, and Fred has a bright future ahead of him. That said, if Mourinho is truly losing the team, as he has done at every other major club he’s managed, there isn’t much more to say.

5. Chelsea -- Europa League Qualification
Last Season: 5
Not to be outdone by United, Chelsea had their own awkward summer, with it becoming apparent before the season ended that Antonio Conte was a dead man walking, yet waiting until the last possible second to chop him and bring in former banker and current footballing wizard Maurizio Sarri. When the season begins, Sarri will have been on the job less than a month, transitioning a team that primarily played on the counter under Conte to a possession-based, passing side. The short turnaround has also caused the Blues’ transfer dealings to lag behind others as well. Sarri should like what he has in the midfield, with his old Napoli midfield general Jorginho and Real Madrid loanee Mateo Kovacic able to slot in alongside N’Golo Kante and Eden Hazard. They made a deadline day deal for goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga but it must be considered a wash at best with the loss of Thibaut Courtois. The questions come defensively, as Chelsea isn’t loaded with natural fullbacks, and Marcos Alonso has played wingback much of his career, same with Victor Moses, and up front, as Alvaro Morata hit a wall that he never got through about two months into last season, and Olivier Giroud is an expert finisher but lacks pace. Given the stark tactical contrast between Conte and Sarri, don’t be surprised if Chelsea struggles substantially to start, then improves greatly as the season goes on, particularly if either Morata or Giroud catch the hot hand (or foot, in this case).

4. Arsenal -- Champions League Qualification
Last Season: 6
The King is Dead, Long Live the King. Arsene Wenger has exited stage left and a new days dawns at the Emirates Stadium in the form of Unai Emery. The former PSG and Sevilla manager comes in and had a fairly proactive transfer window, striking early to bring in deputy right back Stephan Lichtsteiner, goalkeeper Bernd Leno, defender Sokratis Papastathopoulos, and midfield anchor Lucas Torreira. The Gunners intend to demonstrate a bit more aggression than the sides of the retired Frenchman, and Emery has the horses to rack up an absurd amount of goals. In a combined season and a half in North London, Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang combined for 24 goals and 8 assists. Now, with a full season looming, and supported by last season’s top Arsenal player, Aaron Ramsey (7 goals, 8 assists), a rejuvenated Henrikh Mkhitaryan, and an unspeakably angry Mesut Özil, both strikers are receiving backing to contend for the golden boot. Arsenal should also have a powerful deeper midfield, with Lucas Torreira adding more guile, aggression and ball-winning ability to the hard-tackling but primarily creative Granit Xhaka. Big questions do remain regarding defending, which was horrendous for Arsenal last season. Sokratis should provide some leadership at the back, as should Lichtsteiner, and Torreira should help as a screen, but likely regulars Shkodran Mustafi and Hector Bellerin must improve. Arsene Wenger won the league in his first full season, Emery will not do that, but after two years out of the Champions League, maybe the mythical Fourth-Place Trophy isn’t a bad place to start.

3. Tottenham Hotspur -- Champions League Qualification
Last Season: 3
The clock is ticking on Mauricio Pochettino and Spurs. It’s ticking faintly, but it’s there. The new stadium is built, the team is young, talented, and is about as consistent as the club has ever been, and Tottenham celebrated by not signing a single player. As noted earlier, the squad is still strong and deep, so they should still expect to contend. Harry Kane is a brace waiting to happen, Christian Eriksen and Son Heung-Min provide pace and creativity, and Dele Alli is about as dangerous a central attacking midfielder as there is in the league. Farther back, Eric Dier and Victor Wanyama form a formidable central midfield and the back, led by Toby Alderweireld and captain goalkeeper Hugo Lloris, complete an extremely well rounded team that should be no easier to beat this year than they were at any point in the last three years. Pochettino has done a phenomenal job in North London, and he owes the club nothing, but this core does not have a single trophy to show for it. While a finish this high is nothing to scoff at, and the postponement of St. Totteringham’s Day for another year would provide some lovely bragging rights, there likely isn’t much longer the club can go without winning anything before restlessness will start to set in.

2. Liverpool -- Champions League Qualification
Last Season: 4
Liverpool’s run to the Champions League Final demonstrated what a fully functioning Liverpool team can do under Jurgen Klopp: press teams off the pitch, score goals in bunches, and work you like a speed bag until you collapse from exhaustion. And the scary part is, they got much stronger. The Thrilling Three (I didn’t come up with that) of Golden Boot Winner Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino is still intact and still absurd, and the defense improved dramatically last season with the January addition of Virgil Van Dijk in the heart of the back line and the emergence of Trent Alexander-Arnold. The Reds received a tough break when Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain was declared lost for most of the coming season, but Klopp and friends went to work addressing the midfield in the transfer window, locking up Fabinho to bolster the spine of the team and Naby Keita, who will like play the role Oxlade-Chamberlain would’ve played, and winger Xherdan Shaqiri provides even more attacking options at Jurgen Klopp’s disposal. Liverpool improved more than any other top 6 club this summer, and while the mountain to the top may be too high this season, with the way things are going, it looks to be only a matter of time before we’re humming along to a heavy metal rendition of “You’ll Never Walk Alone”.

1. Manchester City -- Champions League Qualification
Last Season: 1
There isn’t much to say here. The Cityzens broke every conceivable record there was to break last season, with a team that was largely quite young, and now the whole squad is back, with the addition of summer signing Riyad Mahrez. City is also deeper than any other side in the league, sporting two world class strikers (Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus), three world class wingers (Leroy Sane, Riyad Mahrez, Raheem Sterling), an assortment of attacking midfielders (Kevin De Bruyne, David Silva, Bernardo Silva), and a defense anchored by midfield pivot Fernandinho and led by John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi. Pep Guardiola and Manchester City are the kings until further notice.

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2018-19 English Premier League Picks

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