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Back and Forth: Sweet 16

3/27/2019

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Alex and Evan are back for the first time since football season to breakdown Michigan’s play in the first weekend of the Men’s NCAA Tournament and preview the Sweet 16 matchup against Texas Tech.

Alex: March Madness is now in full swing, with the first two rounds taking place this past weekend, featuring shockingly few upsets. Hopefully that means good basketball this weekend. And even better, the Michigan Wolverines are still standing after a couple of confident wins in Iowa. Up next: the Texas Tech Red Raiders. But first, did anything stand out to you from the first weekend of tourney play?

Evan: At the national level, it was incredible how boring and chalky the first two rounds were. Every 1, 2, and 3 seed made the Sweet 16 for the second time ever (2009) and 92.5% of brackets on the ESPN Tournament Challenge still have their national champion. There isn’t much to breakdown from last weekend, but there are a lot of fun matchups coming up.

From a Michigan perspective, they weren’t truly challenged in either game. Montana was as bad as expected, and Florida just didn’t have the offense to compete with Michigan. It appears Tournament Charles Matthews is once again a thing, and Eli Brooks appears to be serviceable for the time being. But there is one major concern from the Florida game: from 17:49 to 10:30 Michigan scored 3 points and had 0 field goals. A 15 point lead was cut to 6. Does that sound familiar? It should:

  • at Iowa: 6 points in the first 6:41 of the second half, 4 points from 9:38 to 4:37
  • MSU part 1 (home): 4 points from 15:57 to 5:36 of the second half
  • MSU part 2 (away): 3 points from 12:24 to 5:01 of the second half
  • MSU part 3 (neutral, BTT Championship): 7 points 15:42 to 6:07 of the second half

This team has a serious middle of the second half scoring drought problem. And every remaining team in the tournament will capitalize on the opportunity if Michigan presents it. In short: Montana sucks and Florida is bad, but Michigan played excellent defense in both games. If they want to survive another weekend, they have to avoid a big scoring drought in the second half.


Alex:
Michigan is playing some of their best defense of the season and the effort against Florida was just smothering, holding the Gators to a season-low point total. I will agree about Charles Matthews, who was huge against Montana and very solid against Florida. They will need that to continue from him moving forward, as he is one of those potential options to break the scoring droughts that you mentioned. Jon Teske also had a flat-out phenomenal game on Saturday versus Florida. He was an anchor in the paint and one of the big reasons that the Wolverines were so dominant in the second half. Lastly, we should give Zavier Simpson a shoutout for his performance as well, as he made the numbers “9-9-9” relevant for the first time since Herman Cain.


One thought regarding the scoring issues: this is pretty much a function of this team. They are offensively challenged in certain ways and even though I believe it to be coincidental when the scoring drought is occurring, it is happening at least once a game. They don’t have the one man solution like they did last year with Moe Wagner or Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman. The offense has to be able to flow and not fall into hero-ball like they did against Michigan State in Chicago. Which is why Tournament Charles Matthews’ ability to get to the basket is so big.

Evan: The one thing I’ll say about coincidence vs not is that the 4 games I listed above were all losses (4 of the 6 losses Michigan has suffered this season). So while it might be a coincidence of when they occur on a game to game basis, having them come at bad times (like in the second half when the team is trying to get back into the game or trying to hold onto a big lead) is a killer. But this defense has proven it can handle it most of the time as you mentioned.

Ready to talk Texas Tech?

Alex: Yes. They’re very similar to Michigan in that they feature a tremendous defense and a good but not great offense. However, they are different in that they rely on a go-to player, NBA prospect Jarrett Culver, who has 31% usage. No Michigan player has more than 24%. The Red Raiders are also small.

Evan: Culver is an excellent player. He’s been a consensus lottery pick for most of the season, and thanks to a weak draft class outside the top 3, he’s going to have a good shot at being a top 5 pick this summer. BUT, he has to deal with Charles Matthews. Matthews might be the most underrated defender in the country because his ability to shut down wings was wasted in the Big Ten which features mostly elite guards and bigs. But this is Matthews’ chance to show what he can do against NBA talent at both ends. When you look up and down the matchup list, this appears to be the one that should sway the game one way or another, unless you believe that Matt Mooney has any chance at putting together a good game against Zavier Simpson. Which isn't too likely given Simpson's track record of defending guards in the NCAA Tournament. 

Alex: Texas Tech is a good matchup for Michigan in the sense that Michigan’s two most consistently dominant defenders are logical matches for the Red Raiders' weapons. And certainly if Simpson and Matthews can do well against Culver and Mooney, TT is in big time trouble because those guys are the only two players who dictate the offense for the Red Raiders. Culver has 31.5% usage and Mooney has 22.5% usage. No one else is higher than 19%. For reference, Jon Teske’s offense is 17% usage and he’s not exactly an offensive wizard. Guys like Tariq Owens and Davide Moretti, who post great offensive efficiency numbers, are allowed to do so because Culver and Mooney dictate play and eat up the bad possessions. Stop Culver and Mooney and you stop the point of attack. That said, a more meaningful question may be whether Michigan can crack the Texas Tech defense.

Evan: Yep. As you mentioned, Texas Tech isn’t all that big. Their starting lineup:
  • Mooney 6’3”
  • Moretti 6’2”
  • Culver 6’5”
  • Francis 6’5”
  • Owens 6’10”
The key for Michigan is going to be moving Tariq Owens away from the rim to allow Charles Matthews and Ignas Brazdeikis to get inside and finish. They can try to use Teske on high ball screens to move Owens around, but this will only be truly effective if 1) they can force switches or 2) Teske is making jump shots. Also, Jordan Poole needs to play his best game of the season. He had his moments against Florida, but he’s been frustratingly inconsistent since November. If Poole is making jump shots in the half court and running in the transition offense, it makes this offense somewhat versatile. If he is taking bad shots and not contributing to the transition offense, it results in some of the big scoring droughts we’ve seen. We pretty much know what we are going to get from Simpson, Livers, and Brazdeikis. They’ve all been fairly consistent offensively over the last couple months. For me, it’s what Poole, Matthews, and Teske can do that will dictate Michigan’s success (or lack thereof) on the offensive end.

Alex: In some ways this feels like a race to 60. A consistent advantage that Michigan should have is on the glass and at the free throw line. Unlike Michigan, who never fouls on defense, Texas Tech is quite a bit below average in terms of giving up free throws and due to their height problem, they are middling or below average in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Given that the Red Raiders are the 2nd best team in eFG% defense, getting multiple opportunities in a given possession would be huge. And the foul-prone defense is where Jordan Poole comes in, as he is Michigan’s most consistent threat in terms of drawing fouls. Another key point is turnovers: Michigan 3rd best in not turning it over nationally, while Texas Tech is 10th best nationally at forcing turnovers. If the Wolverines protect the ball and grab a solid amount of rebounds, they should be able to scratch out a win.

Should we talk briefly about Gonzaga and FSU?

Evan: Sure. I know you have a lot of thoughts about Gonzaga, so I’ll leave them to you. Leonard Hamilton’s Seminoles team is deep, long, and athletic. They’ve played as well as anyone in the country over the last two months (their only losses since January 20th were @ North Carolina and in the ACC Tournament against Duke) and even without starting guard Phil Cofer (his father passed away and he has not been with the team since), they breezed through the opening weekend. The question for this team is can they keep the game close against a Gonzaga team that all advanced stats seem to love? FSU is 11-4 in single digit games so they’re battle tested, and as I said they have a lot of depth. But if they come out cold and don’t make their jump shots early, and Gonzaga is able to keep them out of transition by controlling the pace and breaking down their defense, this game could turn into a blowout.

Alex: Gonzaga fascinates me because we don’t know a lot about them. They are 32-3 but by virtue of being a WCC team, they played 7 games against tourney teams and three of those games were against St. Mary’s. In those 7 games, they were 4-3 and the average result was Gonzaga +5.3 (yes, that includes a 48(!!!) point win over St. Mary’s). While they are the only team to defeat Zion this year, they also have double digit losses to St. Mary’s and UNC and an uninspiring 2 point win over Washington at home on the resume. In terms of advanced metrics, they grade out as on pace to be one of the best teams of the last 15 years. Their +33.06 adjusted efficiency margin is the fourth highest of the last 8 seasons and the other three teams (Kentucky 2015, Wisconsin 2015, and Villanova 2018) made the Final Four. KenPom and Torvik love the Zags. They have the nation’s #1 offense, some legit dudes in Brandon Clarke, Rui Hachimura, and Zach Norvell, and the luxury of bringing Killian Tillie of the bench. Which Gonzaga team is the real team? That’s what we’re going to find out this weekend in Anaheim.

Should we do predictions?

Evan: I hate this part. Especially when you have one game between two teams that are basically dead even (Kenpom projects Michigan to beat Texas Tech 62-61) and two teams that are total wildcards in the other game. I’ll trust my gut with both:

FSU 78 - Gonzaga 71. A close game the whole way ending in a typical tourney choke for Gonzaga. MVP: Terance Mann continues his hot streak.

Michigan 66 - Texas Tech 58. As long as Michigan’s defense can survive the inevitable scoring drought, they truly are the better team. This is going to be the Jordan Poole game.

Alex: Hey we did pretty well in predicting football season! My picks:

Gonzaga 84 - FSU 77. I think the Zags are really good and Leonard Hamilton is not a good coach.

Michigan 62 - Texas Tech 57: The race to 60 will be (barely) won by the Wolverines. I think the Red Raiders’ offense will stumble in the face of Simpson and Matthews and Michigan will do just barely enough to scrape out a tough win. Tournament Charles Matthews will be great again.

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One Reason Why Every Team Could Win the 2019 NCAA Tournament

3/18/2019

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Photo via The Oregonian
By: Lucas Vargas

First Four


#16 North Carolina Central Eagles

This is the 3rd straight tournament appearance for the Eagles who are led by Raasean Davis (14.6 PPG 8.9 RPB) and underrated head coach Lavell Moton. It’s a shame that all the media coverage goes to the other school in Durham.

#16 North Dakota State Bison

The Bison have a winning culture that stems from their football team winning 7 FCS National Titles this decade. Rocky Kreuser has to be one of the best names in the field.

#16 Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

Kaleb Bishop and a school mascot of a Knight? This team is playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. Knights to F4.

#16 Prairie View A&M Panthers

There is an A&M in the tournament and they aren’t from College Station. The Panthers have lost one game in 2019 so far and have a National Championship in their view.

#11 Belmont Bruins

The NET Rankings present themselves with Belmont beating out the bubble. The Bruins won road games at UCLA and at Murray State but ultimately fell to the Racers in the Ohio Valley Championship. They play with tremendous pace and shooting, scoring 87.4 PPG. Dylan Windler could be a fringe NBA prospect with averages or 21.4 PPG and 10.7 RPG on 43 % 3-point shooting.

#11 Temple Owls

Shizz Alston Jr. and company did enough to make the field of 68. Owls are thought of as the wisest of animals and Temple has no shortage of wisdom in 70 year old head coach Fran Dunphy.

#11 Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona State was the third Pac 12 Team to make the field after sweating out the bubble but that’s something they’ve got to be used to living in the heat. The Sun Devils have talent but I don’t even think they know which version of themselves is going to show up to play in the First Four. I’ll play devil’s advocate and assume the team that beat Kansas shows up instead of the team that lost to Vanderbilt and Princeton.

#11 St. John’s Red Storm

Shamorie Ponds, Justin Simon, Mustapha Heron, Marvin Clark, and LJ Figueroa are all capable scorers and when they are “on” this team is FUN. If the Red Storm get out and run they have the scorers to stay in any game.  

East Region

#1 Duke Blue Devils


First off Nike reportedly sent their best people to personally fit a shoe specifically for Zion and that somehow isn’t preferential treatment? There’s nothing I can tell you about Duke that you haven’t seen on ESPN since Trae Young passed the torch to Zion Williamson, but what I can tell you is that Duke is a true underdog team that nobody believes in with a group of underrated players that nobody thought had the ability to win games. If you think Duke is good now, just wait until Zion and RJ Barrett are seniors.

#8 VCU Rams

VCU defeated Shaka Smart in Austin, Texas this year and that’s all you need to know about the direction of the two programs in the last four years. One team is in the tournament and one is not.

#9 UCF Knights

This committee believes that UCF should make the playoffs! Not only does the Knights roster contain 7’ 6” Tacko Fall but they also have former Michigan Wolverine Aubrey Dawkins playing under his dad and averaging 15.2 PPG after battling injuries the past couple seasons. The Knights have been good all season in an improving American Conference.

#5 Mississippi State Bulldogs

You can’t lose with someone named Quinndary Weatherspoon.

#12 Liberty Flames

What a great name for a school in the land of the free and the home of the brave. Liberty won a competitive Atlantic Sun Conference and you know that a school with Hugh Freeze as the head football coach is willing to do anything to win.

#4 Virginia Tech Hokies

Justin Robinson is back from injury for the tournament to rejoin Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kerry Blackshear Jr. giving the Hokies a talented trio to play under Coach Buzz Williams who will surely be sweating things out on the sidelines.

#13 Saint Louis Billikens

A Billiken is “the god of things as they ought to be” which is an absolutely genius mascot to have if the way things ought to be for your team is to win games. We’ll see if it pays off.

#6 Maryland Terrapins

Maryland lost three of their last four games but this is the part of the story where the hare thinks he has an insurmountable lead on the tortoise. The Terrapins have us right where they want us and that’s taking a nap. The team has been slow, but now it’s time to be steady and win the race.

#3 LSU Tigers

LSU has an elite scorer in Tremont Waters and a relentless player in Naz Reid but Will Wade will be out indefinitely (crime). That could allow someone as crafty as Waters to play even more freely with the talent around him.

#14 Yale Bulldogs

Yale plays really fast with guards Miye Oni and Alex Copeland keeping things under control for the Bulldogs as evidenced by the 97 points scored to win the Ivy League. There is no shortage of high IQ players on this roster.

#7 Louisville Cardinals

Chris Mack had no drop off moving from Xavier to Louisville, getting the Cardinals back to a respectable level. Jordan Nwora is a versatile forward on a team that showed flashes in wins against Michigan State and North Carolina among other close losses.

#10 Minnesota Golden Gophers

The Gophers are an athletic group that either play really well or really badly. Jordan Murphy and Amir Coffey do most of the work for a team with little bench scoring. The Gophers will go as far as that combination takes them and cannot dig themselves into early holes.

#2 Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State is one of the most complete teams in the country with a star point guard in Cassius Winston, a three-and-D player in Matt McQuaid, and mobile big man Xavier Tillman. After finally getting to see them in person, Winston can make any pass or shot that he needs to and is impossible to guard if he gets the switch off a screen that he wants. McQuaid just scored 27 points to win the Big Ten Tournament and is the perfect fit alongside Winston. Can the Spartans make it past the round of 32 for the first time in three years?

#15 Bradley Braves

Bradley has the fourth most international players in college basketball which means they must value the fundamentals. A lot of “flashy” highly rated kids are only concerned with their mixtapes. This won’t be an issue for Bradley.

West Region

#1 Gonzaga Bulldogs


Not only is Rui Hachimura much improved in the English language, but he improved in every statistical category to become one of the best forwards in college basketball. He went toe to toe with Zion in Maui and won. Gonzaga has scoring at all five positions and when you can bring Killian Tillie off the bench you know you are in good shape depth wise. This team brings a 30-3 record into the tournament but I truly believe they haven’t reached their full potential.

#8 Syracuse Orange

I think Jim Boeheim figured out a couple years ago that his teams do much better if they’re a lower seed in the tournament. Prior to the postseason ban in 2015 the Orange were perennial 5 seeds or higher. Following the ban, The Orange made the Final Four as a 10 seed and a Sweet 16 as an 11 seed. It’s a bold strategy but we’re in the age of tanking where you’ve gotta do what you’ve gotta do. Simply put, there’s a reason that youth basketball is trying to ban the 2-3 zone: They’ve seen how unfair it is for Syracuse in a tournament setting.  

#9 Baylor Bears

Makai Mason is back in the NCAA Tournament where we last saw him score 31 points for Yale to upset Baylor. What a classy move for Mason to join the Bears to try and help them win some games after what he did a few years ago.

#5 Marquette Golden Eagles

Markus Howard vs Ja Morant in the first round? Yes please. Howard is a lethal scorer that leads the run and gun Golden Eagles with the pep in his step to be the dynamic guard that carries his team on a tournament run. In total there are four starters who shoot over 40% from deep for Marquette including the Hauser brothers. Everyone likes to talk about Adrian Wojnarowski’s “Woj Bombs” but watch out for Steve Wojciechowski’s team that has the “bombs away” mentality. When they hit shots and defend just a little bit they can run with anyone.  

#12 Murray State Racers

If you can tell me what state Murray State is actually located in then good for you. But one thing I can tell you about the Racers is that Ja Morant is every bit as advertised and he has quality teammates around him. Morant will be a top 5 pick in the NBA Draft avering 24.6 points, 10 assists, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game on 50% FG shooting. The NCAA Tournament is better for having Morant and Murray State in the field and fans should do everything they can to watch from his pregame dunks to the final whistle.

#4 Florida State Seminoles

Florida State literally has a player named Christ and if that’s not enough I don’t know what is.

#13 Vermont Catamounts

The Catamounts avenged their loss vs UMBC in the America East championship and are ready to make some upsets of their own. Anthony Lamb leads the way for Vermont and the Cats are ready to mount a run.  

#6 Buffalo Bulls

If you’ve ever watched a rodeo you know how hard it is to ride a bull for more than a few seconds but I’m telling you to ride these bulls for 3 weeks. CJ Massinburg represents #MACtion at a high level once again after announcing himself to the world in last year’s tournament. Buffalo is back for more with the 4th highest scoring team in the field of 68.

#3 Texas Tech Red Raiders

Chris Beard is one of the best coaches in America and I don’t know how many people actually know that. In 2016 Beard’s Arkansas Little Rock team won the Sun Belt and upset Purdue in the first round. In 2018 he got Texas Tech to the Elite 8 of the tournament. This season the Red Raiders earned a share of the Big 12 regular season title with undervalued players such as Jarrett Culver. There may not be much else in Lubbock, Texas, but there is the best basketball in the state and it really isn’t that close.

#14 Northern Kentucky Norse

Everyone knows that Old MacDonald had a farm but not everyone knows that Drew McDonald has a team that won the Horizon League for the second time in three seasons. The Norse won at Little Caesars Arena, notoriously empty for basketball games of all levels, showing that this team knows how to create its own energy.

#7 Nevada Wolfpack

“It never troubles the wolf how many the sheep may be.” It’s the Wolfpack and everyone else despite the low seed. Nevada is defined by positionless basketball and experienced players, a deadly combination in March. The Martin Twins have one last chance but Jordan Caroline is the man that really makes the pack strong. If Nevada hits outside shots they can beat anyone, and this is a scary team that sees teams they can hunt.

#10 Florida Gators

KeVaughn Allen is in the tournament for his senior season but his fate may be more closely tied to the ability of freshman guard Andrew Nembhard to break out. It was his big shot to beat LSU that got Florida on the right side of the bubble and could have the Gators chomping at your bracket.

#2 Michigan Wolverines

Michigan held 9 of the 24 teams they played to a season low points per possession. The Wolverines can play stifling defense but it all comes down to ball movement for this team. Zavier Simpson and the skyhook enter the NCAA Tournament with plenty to prove. Luke Wilson, one of the beest walk ons in the country, says Michigan has a chance because, “we have Coach Beilein”.

#15 Montana Grizzlies

Punxsutawney Phil predicted an early spring and these Grizzlies certainly aren’t in hibernation. Jamar Akoh, Ahmaad Rorie, Sayeed Pridgett all average over 15 PPG and face a familiar first round foe.

South Region

#1 Virginia Cavaliers


Questions abound after the Retrievers ate brackets last season. How would Virginia respond to the UMBC loss? Does defense still win championships? Will the Cavaliers play another team with a dog mascot? De’Andre Hunter is healthy this year, let’s see what kind of difference that makes.

#16 Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs

Gardner-Webb qualified for their first NCAA tournament by upending the defending Big South Champion Radford Highlanders on the road. DJ Laster scored 32 points in that game for the Runnin’ Bulldogs. There are few things worse than those without a sense of urgency and Gardner-Webb’s mascot ensures that won’t be a concern.

#8 Ole Miss Rebels

Kermit Davis reversed Ole Miss’ record in his first year and got them to the tournament. Breein Tyree can score in bunches which they’ll need to fight their way into the deep rounds.

#9 Oklahoma Sooners

The Oklahoma basketball team gave up less points per game than their football team did this season (don’t check that stat but it’s closer than it should be). ESPN may miss the days of erratic shot selection from last season but this team actually deserves to be in the tournament.  

#5 Wisconsin Badgers

Ethan Happ post moves. Give him the ball and get out of the way.

#12 Oregon Ducks

People said the Pac 12 was a one-bid league? Think again! With 4 wins in 4 days the Oregon Ducks are alive and quacking. The Ducks lost Bol Bol early in the season but seem to have figured things out thanks to a lineup adjustment that involves starting four 6’ 9” players in Kenny Wooten, Paul White, Louis King, and Francis Okoro and equip Oregon with plenty of defensive versatility. Payton Pritchard has Final Four experience as the point guard for this team and does everything for the Ducks (12.7 PPG, 4.5 APG, 3.7 RPB). The Ducks may have been ugly most of the season, but they looked in the mirror and found themselves at the right time.  

#4 Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State deserves credit for ending Kansas’ reign over the Big 12 and for their top 3 scoring defense. The Wildcats made the Elite 8 last year without Dean Wade and may have to do it again as he’s missed time with another injury. They play as tough as any team in America.

#13 UC Irvine Anteaters

Candidate for best mascot of the tournament, the Anteaters lost five games all year. Gone are the days of Mamadou N’Diaye for UC Irvine but Max Hazzard will have teams cautious of bothering the mascot that eliminates pests and higher seeds alike.

#6 Villanova Wildcats

They won it all last year.

#11 St. Mary’s Gaels

Jordan Ford averages 21.3 points per game and is surrounded by Australians, New Zealanders, and Europeans. St. Mary’s beat Gonzaga to earn their automatic bid. Not even Duke could do that.

#3 Purdue Boilermakers

This team goes with Carsen Edwards. If he is locked in then there’s nobody that can guard him. If he forces shots up inefficiently, he basically guards himself. He averaged 23 points per game this season and will be in attack mode all game long.

#14 Old Dominion Monarchs

Coach Jeff Jones has coached through cancer in a truly inspiring story, the kind that make this sport so special. BJ Stith and Ahmad Carter both average over 16.5 PPG to lead the Monarchs.

#7 Cincinnati Bearcats

Jarron Cumberland seems to be enough for the defensive minded Bearcats that are more than happy to get down and guard. This is your friendly reminder that a bearcat is also a real animal.

#10 Iowa Hawkeyes

The Hawkeyes lost in Columbus, Fran McCaffery chased the refs into the tunnel to curse them out, and got suspended 2 games for it. Including that one, Iowa has lost 5 of their last 6 games but at least they have a coach willing to speak his mind.

#2 Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee beat Kentucky twice this season and has two of the most physically imposing players in the nation. Admiral Schofield and Grant Williams have heard how overrated they are all year.

#15 Colgate Raiders

Roll out the toothpaste jokes all you want but Colgate should be taken seriously with guys like Jordan Burns (35 points in Patriot League Final) and Rapolas Ivanauskas (16.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 43.4 3-point %). Don’t brush the Raiders to the side.

Midwest Region

#1 North Carolina Tar Heels


The Hair
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#16 Iona Gaels

Iona won their 4th straight MAAC Tournament title meaning that this is a surprisingly experienced NCAA tournament team. They’re due for some NCAA Tournament wins now.

#8 Utah State Aggies

Sam Merrill is a stud averaging 21.2 PPG but Utah State’s inclusion is more closely connected to the Zion obsession. It’s no coincidence that the state with Zion National Park gets a school into the dance.

#9 Washington Huskies

Mike Hopkins rolls out the 2-3 Zone just like he learned from Jim Boeheim. Manifest Destiny of the 2-3 Zone.

#5 Auburn Tigers

A Tiger does not need to boast that it is a Tiger. Jared Harper and Bryce Brown lead a streaky shooting Auburn team coming in with momentum after winning the SEC Tournament.

#12 New Mexico State Aggies

New Mexico State has made eight NCAA Tournaments since 2010 meaning it’s either time to win some games in the big dance or time to pick a different conference.

#4 Kansas Jayhawks

Bill Self is coaching for his job after not winning the Big 12 for the first time in 14 years. Sometimes fear is the best motivator.

#13 Northeastern Huskies

Vasa Pusica hit 7 threes to win the Colonial and leads a balanced but potent Huskies team. Two Huskies teams in the region has this looking like the Iditarod.

#6 Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State beat Kansas in the Big 12 Championship game to ensure that the Jayhawks were unable to win a conference title. Marial Shayok and Lindell Wigginton turn Iowa State into Team Canada. Nick Weiler-Babb and Talen Horton-Tucker are among the names that make this Cyclones team a broadcaster’s dream.

#11 Ohio State Buckeyes

Did you know that Chris Holtmann has a higher annual base salary than Dabo Swinney? If you’re getting paid like that you better win it all. Kaleb Wesson must avoid foul trouble.

#3 Houston Cougars

Everyone wondered how Houston would respond to getting their hearts ripped out but the Cougars are arguably better this year than last. They only give up 61 points a game and they beat four tournament teams in the non conference. All of their guards can shoot the three ball. Corey Davis Jr. has filled the shoes of Rob Gray nicely and Armani Brooks has emerged as well. This team has admirable resiliency and should be believed in.  

#14 Georgia State Panthers

I told you last year about D’Marcus Simonds and he’s worth mentioning again. Georgia State is becoming a power in the Sun Belt.

#7 Wofford Terriers

Wofford lost 4 games all season long: Home vs UNC, @ Oklahoma, Kansas, Mississippi St. and won at South Carolina by 20. Fletcher Magee, Nathan Hoover, and Storm Murphy will have announcers salivating for white basketball stereotypes. And the Terriers are stocked with 4 players that shoot over 41% from 3 including Magee who has made 502 in his career and is 2 behind Travis Bader for most 3’s in NCAA history. You know what they say about hungry dogs.

#10 Seton Hall Pirates

It’s all about Myles for the Pirates. Myles Powell and Myles Cale are the two leading scorers for Seton Hall.

#2 Kentucky Wildcats

Tyler Herro or Tyler Hero? The Freshman guard has been important to Kentucky’s success and has been a great fit alongside PJ Washington, whose decision to return to school has paid off. The Wildcats have depth but more importantly they have some experience because Duke took all the 5-stars.

#15 Abilene Christian Wildcats

Abilene Christian qualified for its first NCAA Tournament in only its sixth year of being a Division 1 school. The home of Taco Bueno has a team that is muy bueno and represents the Southland Conference.
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Big Ten Tournament Semifinals Recap

3/16/2019

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Picture
Photo via Marc-Grégor Campredon
​By: Lucas Vargas

All-Big Ten Semifinals Team

Guard: Cassius Winston
Guard: Zavier Simpson
Forward: Isaiah Livers
Forward: Kenny Goins
Forward: Ethan Happ

Wisconsin Badgers 55 vs Michigan State Spartans 67

We got to see a rematch of the 2015 Big Ten Tournament Championship game, the last time the event took place in Chicago. Kenny Goins and Ethan Happ were both on those teams as redshirts. Goins went for a double-double with 13 points and 12 rebounds going 4-7 from deep while Happ dropped 20 points and collected 6 rebounds. The Spartans ran ahead right off the bat to comfortably advance to the 2019 Big Ten Tournament Championship game behind some hot early shooting. Cassius Winston was dialed in as well and the Spartan starters carried the load in this one.

Wisconsin must not have adjusted well to the Spalding ball in use at the tournament. A team stocked with 40% three point shooters went a combined 2-19 from downtown, and most of those were good looks. Wisconsin attempted to shift their focus to attacking the rim but saw shot after shot rim out resulting in a 35.3% field goal shooting afternoon. Wisconsin defended well but scoring is still the name of the game.

Minnesota Golden Gophers 49 vs Michigan Wolverines 76

We got to see every player on Michigan’s bench play for the second consecutive night. Only one starter played more than 27 minutes (Jordan Poole played 32) and the bench saw a combined 66 minutes of court time. Freshman guard Adrien Nunez who is always jumping around on the bench taking pride in the energy he brings acknowledged that, “it’s been cool that I’ve been able to get in both games” of his first Big Ten Tournament. The four freshman: Nunez, David DeJulius, Colin Castleton, and Brandon Johns, all shared the court together which is something they noted that they don’t usually get to do even in practice.  Eli Brooks ran the offense for much of the second half and credited the confidence the coaches have instilled in him for an aggressiveness that allowed him to “feel good being in position to make plays”. Brooks played 15 minutes scoring on a pair of strong drives to the basket and converting a free throw for 5 points while hauling down 6 rebounds. Brooks again commented on his other significant stat in the locker room after the game: 6 Gatorade chews he ate pregame consistent with the theme of last night. Left-handed walk-on guard Luke Wilson grew up a Michigan fan dreaming of playing in the tournament he watched, “It was really awesome to get on the court and know the whole team was behind me and encouraging me to shoot it, they’re the ones that got me on the court in the first place.” Wilson also offered insight into what lied ahead against Michigan State. Wilson stated, “We know what’s ahead of us, we have an amazing opportunity to win a championship. We have to bring focus and intensity and play and we gotta play our game tomorrow which we didn’t do the first two times against Michigan State. We believe that if we play our game we can win the championship.”

The stat of the night continues to revolve around the ball movement as the Wolverines topped 20 assists for the second consecutive game. Michigan had 21 assists on 32 made field goals and Zavier Simpson dished out 9 of those. Simpson now has 20 assists and 1 turnover in two games against NCAA Tournament level competition in Chicago. Brooks commented on the Wolverine ball movement saying, “We’re seeing the ball go in and we’re playing for each other. To win you have to share the ball.” Isaiah Livers also earns a spot on the All-Big Ten Tournament Semifinals Team with 21 points (8-10 FG, 4-6 3 FG) in 23 minutes off the bench.

Setting the Stage:

Tomorrow afternoon will be the third game between the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans this season. Michigan State won in Ann Arbor 77-70 and in East Lansing 75-63 thanks to dominant second half stretched in both games. Michigan defeated Michigan State in last year’s Big Ten Tournament at Madison Square Garden 75-64 en-route to their second consecutive Big Ten Tournament Championship. Michigan State defeated Michigan in the 2014 Big Ten Tournament Championship game 69-55. Michigan has won a record 10 straight Big Ten Tournament games.

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Nebraska Was the Team to Watch of the First Three Days

3/15/2019

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Michigan’s Big Ten Tournament story hadn’t even started yet, but Nebraska already finished the final chapter of one of the most fun runs a team will have this tournament. For the time being, Nebrasketball and Tim Miles will await the decisions of the NIT selection committee and Nebraska AD Bill Moos in regards to their futures. But from Wednesday to Friday, the Huskers and their coach Tim Miles changed the narrative of their season. Before January 26th, the standards for this season were much higher, but senior Isaac Copeland tore his ACL in the second half of a narrow home loss to Ohio State. From that point on the Huskers lost. 8 of their next 10. The narrative was clear. Nebraska had quit. A team that entered the preseason in every bracketologists’ field was waiting for the days to pass them by and end their season, knowing that head coach Tim Miles would likely lose his job after failing to make the NCAA Tournament with two of the most talented rosters in program history. It’s worth nothing Nebraska is the only Power 5 program to never win an NCAA Tournament game. This was THE year.
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With no reason to believe or care, Nebraska’s fortunes changed. In the season finale at Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln, the Huskers made a furious 11-point comeback to force overtime and add their third win of the season without Isaac Copeland. Rewarded with the 13th seed in the Big Ten Tournament, an iota of momentum, and only six scholarship players available, something turned on for Nebraska. The Huskers did not go gently in to that good night. A 34-point effort from James Palmer Jr., who many believed could have avoided this disaster season by leaving for the NBA draft, propelled the Huskers to a 68-61 victory over 12 Rutgers that no one really took note of. Then, Nebraska left their mark on the tournament, knocking off Big Ten title contender Maryland 69-61. The clock struck midnight as the Huskers lost 66-62 to Wisconsin, but Nebraska overcame two 11-point first half deficits, and gave Wisconsin a serious run for their money. Tim Miles will probably need a deep NIT run to save his job, and no Nebraska fan will be happy with this season, but they at least went out with a streak a stretch of four games resembling the team they could have been.  
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Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals Recap

3/15/2019

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Picture
Photo via David Banks - USA TODAY Sports
By: Lucas Vargas

All-Big Ten Quarterfinals Team

Guard: Glynn Watson
Guard: Foster Loyer
Guard: Zavier Simpson
Forward: Jordan Murphy
Forward: Nate Reuvers


Ohio State Buckeyes 70 vs Michigan State Spartans 77

What I liked:

Cassius Winston did his thing with 18 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists but only needed to play 22 minutes. A backcourt of Matt McQuaid, Foster Loyer, and Kyle Ahrens was on the court when the Spartans put meaningful separation between themselves and the Buckeyes in the second half showing the depth that Michigan State possesses and lightening the minutes load for Winston. Loyer went for 14 points on 5-7 shooting and 4-5 three point shooting. He drew himself quite the ovation upon exiting the game and leaving fans wondering if he can replicate performances like this in the future.

What I didn’t like:

Kaleb Wesson returned for the Big Ten tournament after serving a three game suspension for a violation of team rules. He gave the Hoosiers problems on Thursday with a 17 point and 13 rebound double-double but only lasted 16 minutes after fouling out with 9:41 remaining. I was expecting a battle between Wesson and the Spartan combo of Nick Ward and Xavier Tillman but was left thinking what could have been if the whistles had been silent for some of the ticky tack calls. This is the Big Ten after all.

Nebraska Cornhuskers 62 vs Wisconsin Badgers 66

What I liked:

Glynn Watson Jr. did everything in his power to get Nebraska to another round of the Big Ten Tournament going for 23 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists while playing the entire game. In fact Nebraska only played six guys all game because of the depth issues they have accrued all season limiting them to only as many active scholarship players. Watson also played all 40 minutes against Rutgers and Maryland on Wednesday and Thursday. He hit some big shots to keep it close and had the crowd behind him but it just wasn’t enough for the Cornhuskers. He gave it everything he had.

What I didn’t like:

Ethan Happ only playing 20 minutes and committing 7 turnovers? Badgers’ Coach Greg Gard described the day as “very uncharacteristic for him”. It was not the opening performance I expected for the star forward but Wisconsin was able to survive in large part thanks to Nebraska’s lack of size and the contributions of Nate Reuvers who scored 14 points and grabbed 6 rebounds while hitting both of his threes and blocking 2 shots.

Minnesota Golden Gophers 75 vs Purdue Boilermakers 73

What I liked:

I was extremely excited for the battle of two Big Ten Texans in Jordan Murphy from San Antonio and Carsen Edwards from Atascocita. Both are some of the best players in the Big Ten with Edwards on the first team and Murphy on the second team. Murphy was locked in on his end with a stat line of 27 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists. He was largely unguardable getting to his spots on the low blocks and being effective in transition. The Gophers used a balanced scoring attack to display their best characteristics against the Big Ten regular season co-champions. Amir Coffey scored 21, Daniel Oturu added 13, and Gabe Kalscheur contributed 11. This game was fast paced and competitive; the Gophers have potential to beat anyone.

What I didn’t like:

Unfortunately there was the other side of the Texan matchup. Carsen Edwards is as prolific a scorer as there is in America but at times he falls into the trap of forcing the issue. Smothered by Kalscheur most of the night, Edwards had little success in a 4-17 shooting performance with 6 turnovers. In a tight game like this one was, every possession was valuable and the aggressiveness that blurred into poor decision making was the difference.

Iowa Hawkeyes 53 vs Michigan Wolverines 74

What I liked:

Michigan had 24 assists on 28 made field goals and Zavier Simpson dished out 11 of them. Wolverine guard Luke Wilson said, “The ball movement shows how long we’ve been playing together and how much we enjoy playing together and when we move the ball like that we will get open shots.” It was an encouraging step to start off the tournament for the Wolverines who looked focused from the start and played everyone on the team. Eli Brooks was a notable contributor off the bench with 6 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists in 18 energy filled minutes and said he was able to stay ready by “eating a lot of Gatorade chews before the game”. It was a complete effort for the Wolverines who only allowed a single three pointer from Iowa that didn’t come until the closing minutes.

What I didn’t like:

Iowa came out and got the Wolverines in early foul trouble in the second half. No players were ever in serious foul trouble but Michigan can expect a physical game in the semifinals against the Gophers and will have to guard a much more athletic group looking to get to the rim as opposed to shooting threes. David DeJulius said that Michigan must “do a better job showing their chest and showing their hands to avoid fouling” and will prepare for the quick turnaround.

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Miller's Post Combine Bog Board 1.0

3/6/2019

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Miller Post Combine Big Board

Top 32 Scouting Report and Pro Comparisons


1) Nick Bosa EDGE, OSU
    
STRENGTHS
    - Elite Twitchy athleticism
    -Quick power rusher
    -Polished Technique
    -Elite ability to convert speed to power
    -High-motor player, plays aggressive
CONCERNS
    -Slight injury history, should be fine

The clear-cut No.1 prospect in this class. Nick Bosa is an elite prospect on the same plane as Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney, etc. No matter what team selects him at No.1, he should be a pro-bowler year 1.
    
Pro Player Comp: Danielle Hunter DE, Vikings

2) Quinnen Williams DT, Alabama
    
STRENGTHS
    -Elite run stuffer
    -Great at gap Penetration
    -Scheme Versatile
    -Good interior rusher
    -Elite athlete
    -Great production at Alabama; normally a school not well know for production at DT
CONCERNS
    -N/a

Outside of Bosa, I would say that Williams is the safest pick in this draft. Whoever picks Williams will get one of the most solid and polished players with a ton of upside to boot. I don’t want to give the impression that Williams is a high-floor, low-upside stereotype. He is high-floor, high-upside. He is the best DT prospect I personally have ever scouted.

Pro Player Comp: Sheldon Rankins DT, Saints

3) Josh Allen EDGE, Kentucky

STRENGTHS
    -Elite Athleticism
    -Bend around the end is underrated
    -Elite ability to convert speed to power
    - Great Coverage Skills
    -Scheme Versatile
    -Plays with chip on his shoulder
    -Great production in the SEC when he was the main focus for better teams
CONCERNS
-N/a

The draft’s biggest riser, Josh Allen, allows for a team to get the last of the truly elite prospects in the draft. His high motor and ability to convert speed to power should be enticing to NFL teams, as well as his lack of weakness to his game. Outside of Bosa any of the 2-6 players could be in any order.

Pro Player Comp: Justin Houston EDGE, Chiefs

4) Greedy Williams CB, LSU

STRENGTHS
    -Elite Speed
        4.37 40
    - Elite man-to-man skills and instincts
    -Ideal size
    -Long and lengthy
    -Fluid athlete
CONCERNS
    -Untested ball skills, teams rarely threw his way

One of my personal man-crushes of the entire class. I think he has shutdown corner written all over him. With elite athleticism he could very well be one of the best shots at a guarantee of a star from this class. His potential is best CB in the league, his goal should be generation defining corner.

Pro Player Comp: Stephon Gilmore CB, Patriots

5) Ed Oliver DT, Houston

STRENGTHS
    -Ideal size for the position
    -Scheme Versatile
    -Men his size should not be as fast and quick as he is
    -compact frame
    -Freshman tape was Heisman level good
CONCERNS
    -Lack of production at Houston during sophomore season
        *Probably due to the triple teams he received
    -Public disputes with HC Major Applewhite
        * Will have to answer at combine and team interviews

Ed Oliver was one of the most sought after DT recruits in the nation. Choosing to be, “loyal to his soil” may have cost him in his production. He is still one of the elite prospects in this draft class. There has not been a DT with this much hype since Ndamukong Suh.

Pro Player Comp: Gerald McCoy DT, Bucs

6) Devin White LB, LSU

STRENGTHS
    -Elite athleticism
    -Impressive Coverage skills
    -Plays with a high-motor
    -Unexpectedly exceptional Pass Rush skills
    -Great Production
    -Top-notch off-field
    -Born leader
CONCERNS

    -n/a

One of the most impressive players in this class, Devin White, will be the leader of any teams defense he is drafted in to. The only question is, will a team draft a LB in the top 5? If there was ever an LB to be worth that selection it would be Devin White.

Pro Player Comp: Myles Jack LB, Jaguars


7) Jonah Williams OT, Alabama

STRENGTH
    -Great Pass Blocking skills
    -Exceptional Run blocking skills
    -4 year starter at Alabama
    -Can and has played all over the line
    -Great technique
    -Incredible recovery skills
    -Positionless
CONCERNS
    -Height/arm length
    -Do NFL teams want him at Tackle?

Jonah Williams is easily the best lineman in this class, and probably the best Line prospect other than Quenton Nelson in a while. While we knew that Nelson would be playing Guard, it is a little unclear with Williams. Some draft gurus will tell you he is a guard because of his 6’5” height, but in my opinion he is undoubtedly a Tackle in the NFL. If a team doesn’t see him as a Tackle, I’m sure he can be just as good a Guard or even center.

Pro Player Comp: Duane Brown OT, Seahawks

8) Rashan Gary DL, Michigan

STRENGTHS
    -Elite Athleticism
        Alleged 4.53 speed
    - Great size for position
    - Great Penetration skills
    -Scheme Versatile
CONCERNS
    -Hard to analyze tape
        *Double/Triple teamed often
    -Played out of position at Michigan
    
    Rashan Gary is more than a traditional “upside pick.” He has the athletic ability to play all over the line. He can be a great interior penetrator as well as play the end if he’s asked. Many will question his production, but the moment he hits the NFL combine, he should be a top 10 lock. Teams will be unable to pass on his athleticism.

Pro Player Comp: Cam Jordan DL, Saints

9) Dwayne Haskins QB, OSU

STRENGTHS
    -Quick Release
    -Great Mechanics
    -Underrepresented mobility
    -High instincts
    -Elite Accuracy
    -Good not great Arm Strength
    -+ intangibles
CONCERNS
    -Limited mobility
    -Average physical tools

    Haskins has slowly impressed me more and more throughout this process. I’m impressed with his accuracy, leadership, and decision making. Watching his tape, it is rare than Haskins fails in his field vision, and could be a great QB in the league. Leaving the season I doubted that there was a QB worth drafting in the first, now I see maybe two really good options.

Pro Player Comp: Kurt Warner QB, Retired  

10) Josh Jacobs RB, Alabama

STRENGTHS
    -Bounces off defenders almost always
    -Great vision
    -good first gear
    -good game speed
    -never goes down with first hit
    -always gets another 2 yards
    -great in the passing game
CONCERNS
    -He is not elite fast and did not run a 40

    Josh Jacobs has rose to be the best RB in this class by a significant margin. A 2-star recruit, he emerged as the lead back in a loaded Bama RB core. His persistent and high character has to be intriguing in a league that has seen the revitalization of the running back position.

Pro Player Comp: Kareem Hunt RB, Browns

11) Clelin Ferrell EDGE, Clemson

STRENGTHS
    -Great Power
    -Surprising Speed
    -Great production at Clemson
    -Good measurables
    -Great off the snap
CONCERNS
    -Does not project as a potential top 10 pass rusher

Clelin Ferrell has safe written all over him. He projects as a regular 10 sacks a year guy, but may not have the uber athleticism to be one of the NFL’s elite pass rushers.

Pro Player Comp: Mario Williams EDGE, Retired

12) Montez Sweat EDGE, Miss St
STRENGTHS
    -Powerful Rusher
    -Good Athleticism
    -Bull Rushing technique is exquisite
    -Ridiculous speed (4.41)
    -Great at converting speed to power
CONCERNS
    -Off Field incidents

    Yet another Miss St prospect with a questionable past. This situation will again rely on a team’s belief in him as a person. If his background checks out he could be a really good EDGE rusher and a possible steal late in the draft. He projects as a good No.1. His blazing speed should be intriguing for any NFL. His locker room etiquette is in question.

Pro Player Comp: Yannick Ngakoue EDGE, Jaguars

13) Devin Bush LB, Michigan

STRENGTHS
    -Speed, elite speed
    -Top level Instincts
    -Great at dissecting plays and attacking
    -Great Penetrator
    -Great tackler, defenders rarely break tackles
CONCERNS
    -Coverage of TEs is suspect at the next level

    Devin Bush was the leader of the elite Michigan defense and impressed all year. Many thought he was too short to be an impact player at his position at the next level. At the beginning of the season there was talk that he might play safety in the NFL. That all evaporated when he showed off his ability at the position and blazing speed. He could excel as a go get em linebacker at the next level. No one outside Devin White is a better cleanup linebacker. At the combine Devin Bush was able to squash all worries about his height. He is a top tier LB prospect.

Pro Player Comp: Deandre Levy LB, Retired

14) Byron Murphy CB, Washington

STRENGTHs
    -Great Ball Skills, best in class
    -Great man and zone cover skills
    -Great instincts
CONCERNS
    -Undersized for the position
    -May be limited to slot
    -Ran a disappointing 40 time (4.55)

    Washington corners recently have had a reputation of being massive raisers in the draft process with excellent tape to boot, but have underperformed in the NFL for one reason or another. It may stand to question how will Murphy change his fortunes, especially with the size concerns that the other corners didn’t have. You have to draft the player not the helmet. The player, has some of the best tape in this class and could be one of the surprise stars of the class.

Pro Player Comp: Jason Verrett CB, Chargers

15) Noah Fant TE, Iowa

STRENGTHS
    -Incredibly fast for his size (4.5  40)
    -Huge size, will be a mismatch in the NFL
    -Amazing route runner, would be high in that trait amongst WRs
    -Great production at Iowa
CONCERN
    -Untested blocking skills
        *Have to imagine at Iowa you can be tough and block.
    -Another Iowa TE may have been the bigger star there

    Noah Fant is in fact the best TE prospect I’ve ever scouted. He beats out the recent favorites like Ebron and OJ Howard, for his elite size and speed at the position. He could be a legit star the moment he steps on the field. In the league he will be a matchup nightmare for any linebackers and safeties that try to cover him, and he posses the route running skills to evade slot corners. I think this kid is special.

Pro Player Comp: George Kittle TE, 49ers

16) T.J. Hockenson TE, Iowa

STRENGTHS
    -Great speed (4.7)
    -Powerful blocker
    -Precise route runner
    -Mackey Award winner
CONCERNS
    -n/a

    When it comes to the two Iowa TEs it really is a pick your poison type deal. In this process it will be common to say that the one you don’t prefer is overrated, but that simply is not true. I have no questions about Hockenson and think he will be every bit of a star that Fant is. Fant to me is just the superior athlete and I like that in where the position is going. Hockenson is still an elite athlete and prospect.

Pro Player Comp: Rob Gronkowski TE, Patriots

17) Kyler Murray
    
STRENGTHS
    -Natural Thrower
    -Great Arm Talent and flexibility
    -+ Arm strength
    -Elite Mobility
    -Great Touch
CONCERNS
    - He is 5’10”
    -Drafting him there is risk he may bolt for the MLB if his long term health is spooked
    -Having to help him with his contract with the MLB
    
    It feels like we just had this conversation last year, for someone of his size (no matter the traits). I have been burned on this before (having Baker as my No.5 QB in 2018), but this feels worse. I do not know if he is tall enough for the NFL, and he looks smaller than 5’10” on film. I love everything about this guy except his height, and as much as it sucks height is a trait. It will be THE factor in his evaluation. I know I slept on Baker, but I am more worried about Kyler (who is my height) getting tackled by Myles Garrett coming at him full speed. It takes an elite athlete to pull it off and Kyler certainly is one, I just have my doubts.

Pro Player Comp: Russell Wilson QB, Seahawks

18) Jeffery Simmons

STRENGTHS
    -Big mammoth of a man who still has room to grow
    -Ridiculous production for his position
    -asked to do a lot and consistently delivers
    -eats up a lot of space and opposing lineman rarely win matchups
    -Scheme Versatile
CONCERNS
  • Before he entered college there is video of him assaulting a woman (allegedly he was breaking up a fight)
  • Torn ACL injury

    Jeffery Simmons should be one of the safest picks in this entire draft class, but an off-field incident will be enough for teams to put him completely off their boards. Not only that, he has torn an ACL in the draft process. According to many in the media, he has completely turned his life around. He is a big physical penetrator who pops off screen when you watch his film. Any team should be glad to have him, as he can play all over the line and dominate regardless. If a team can get past his medicals and him possibly not playing this year, they will have a true stud on their hands.

19) Brian Burns EDGE, FSU

STRENGTHS
    -Huge physical athlete
    -Ability to convert speed to power is extraordinary
    -Special physical traits
CONCERNS
    -Inconsistent production at FSU
    -Elite talent on defense yet little to show for it overall
    -Off Field incidents

    Brian Burns is an uber athletic EDGE prospect with some off field concerns. His prospectness reminds me a lot of Randy Gregory with less concerning off-field issues and less amazing player traits. He could be off a bunch of team’s Draft Boards. Could be a steal later on, if a team believes in him as a person.

Pro Player Comp: Dee Ford EDGE, Chiefs

20) Andre Dillard OT, Washington St.

STRENGTHS
    -Mammoth human being
    -Great production at Senior Bowl
    -Great pass blocking skill
    -Huge mauler
CONCERNS
    -Not the best footwork but can be fixed

    Andre Dillard is a typical good NFL tackle. He has the ability to go and start right away and should be able to consistently hold off opposing rushers. His size at 6’ 5” should be the same amount of issue that it is for Williams. I like Dillard as a starting Tackle but not anything more.

Pro Player Comp: Donovan Smith OT, Bucs

21) D.K. Metcalf WR, Ole Miss

STRENGTHS
    -Size, like IDEAL SIZE
    -Quick and twitchy athlete
    -Strailine speed
    -Rarely gets tackled in the open space on the first hit
    -Great hands
    -amazing overall combine
CONCERNS
    -Major injury concerns
    -Little YAC potential
    -Horrid 3 cone

    If it were not for the injury concerns, D.K. would easily be my No.1 WR and a top 15 player in this class. Of all the receivers in this draft, he is the only one with star potential. He is a rare mismatch of speed and size, and great in the open field. However, his injury this year was a major one. The combine was his place for him to show the injury is behind him, and it certainly looks like it. This freak put up 27 reps and a 4.33 40. However his terrible 3 cone (which I think is the only event that really matters) shows me that there is little potential for YAC yards, which is a huge knock.

Pro Player Comp: AJ Green WR, Bengals

22) N’Keal Harry WR, ASU

STRENGTHS
-Elite YAC ability
-Ideal 6’3” size
-Amazing hands
-Best catch radius
-Quick change of direction
CONCERNS
-Average NFL Speed

N’Keal Harry is someone I am going to stick my neck out for. He is one of my man-crushes in this class. Coming in there were questions about his speed. He ran a 4.54 which is fine for the NFL. HE has the ability to catch that few have, and many players in this class would die for his ability to catch balls like him. He is special with his catch radius. If you throw a ball at Harry it is in his wheelhouse to catch it. His ability to make people miss in open space is also elite. The only question is his refined route tree that will need polishing in the NFL. Personally I really love this kid.

Pro Player Comp: Demaryius Thomas WR, Free Agent

23) Deandre Baker CB, Georgia

STRENGTH
    -Great awareness
    -Decent ball skills
    -Great in Zone coverage
    -Fluid technique
CONCERNS
    -May be limited to a Zone defense
    -A tad undersized
    -Ran a slow 40 time
    
    One of the more well recruited players coming out of High School, Deandre Baker was able to successfully keep up that success at college. With good ball skills and natural instincts for the position he should be a starter in for a team on any secondary. May be scheme versatile, he has the speed to play man to man.

Pro Player Comp: Josh Norman CB,  Redskins

24) Irv Smith Jr. TE, Alabama

STRENGTHS
    -Best Blocker in the class
    -Amazing Route runner
    -Great Production
    -Good Size for the position.
    -Underrated speed
CONCERNS
    -Okay hands
    
    In a special TE class, Irv Smith Jr. Separates himself from the class as the best Blocker and Route Runner in this entire class. In the NFL he will excel in a power run, but could also find success in traditional spread systems. He could be a dangerous option for any offense and should be able to play all over the field.

Pro Player Comp: Delanie Walker TE, Titans

25) Trayvon Mullen

STRENGTHS
  • Good man to man instincts
  • Quick change of direction ability
  • Fluid Technique
  • Good Ball skills
CONCERNS
    -Overshadowed in the Clemson defense
    -Not incredibly challenged in his career


One of the more underrated prospects in this class, Mullen could fly up boards depending on what teams like his tape. He is a good man to man corner, and with a top-heavy corner class, he may just find himself a hot commodity for any team.

Pro Player Comp: Trae Waynes CB, Vikings


26) Deionte Thompson S, Alabama
    
STRENGTHS
    -Decent speed pops on screen
    - Instincts are some of the best I’ve seen in a while
    -Can be a center fielder or a in the box safety
    -Ball Hawk
    -Great athlete
    -Leadership skills
Concerns
    -Good but not blazing speed
    
    For some reason the process has soured on Deionte Thompson. I still view him as one of the safer prospects in the class; Deionte Thompson brings an energy and sound play to the field and should do the same at the NFL level. He could be a pro bowler at the next level with little bust factor to his name.

Pro Player Comp: Eddie Jackson S, Bears

27) Mack Wilson LB, Alabama

STRENGTHS
    -Excellent run defender
    -Quick gap stopper
    -Incredible instincts
    -Good Athlete
    -Ideal Size
CONCERNS
    -Coverage Skills are not consistent enough

    Mack Wilson is yet another good linebacker in this class who should go in the first round if all goes according to plan. He is a gifted play crusher, astute in the art of messing up easy run plays. If a Running back decides to run up the gut, they may find that Mack Wilson is there waiting for him.

Pro Player Comp: Brandon Marshall  LB, Broncos

28) Taylor Rapp S, Washington

STRENGTHS
    -Smart plate
    -Aggressive in box safety
    -Gifted tackler
    -Great instincts
    -Excellent blitzer
CONCERNS
    -Not very rangy
    -covering large distances is not his strength.
    -Limmitted in pass coverage

Taylor Rapp is following in the lineage of top DB prospects to come out of Washington as of late. Watching Rapp tape, his explosiveness and instincts towards the ball really pops out. For me my questions remain in the pass coverage department. I am confident he can get better at his range, but there is a nonsignificant chance he may be limited to in box safety in the NFL.

Pro Player Comp: Jeff Heath S, Cowboys

29) Cody Ford OG, Oklahoma
STRENGTHS
    -Power Blocker extraordinaire
    -Ability to maul is impressive
    -Nice Leverage skills
    -Great Pass Protection Technique
CONCERNS
    -Broken Fibula in Soph yr
    -Inconsistent footwork-will need refining

The best Guard in the draft is never a sexy-scout, but he seems so generally solid. I have no fear that he will be a successful guard in the NFL. He is all power and leverage, so he should be able to find plenty of success at the next level.

Pro Player Comp: Larry Warford G, Saints

30) Jawaan Taylor OT, Florida

STRENGTHS
    -Size and Frame is ideal
    -Great use of Hands
CONCERNS
    -Might be a RT in NFL
    -Has issue with speed rushers

Jawaan Taylor has been a riser in this process, and I can certainly see why. His tape is solid, and his measurables are solid. I do not however see him as a Left Tackle in the NFL, and there aren’t enough elite traits that make me think he will be an elite Right Tackle. Still I think he has the tools to be a staple on any teams O Line.

Pro Player Comp: Derek Newton, Retired

31) Drew Lock QB, Missouri

STRENGTHS
    -Great Arm Strength
    -Effortless release
    -Great Mobility
CONCERNS
    -Did not meet expectations at Mizzou
    -Major Accuracy Concerns
    -Decision making concerns

    Drew Lock is a complete upside gamble. He could just as easily flame out as succeed. While many will compare him to Pat Mahomes and Josh Allen, there was at least a lot of tape of Allen and Mahomes making unbelievable plays repeatedly. Also, I think Lock’s arm strength is a little overblown because everyone wants to compare him to the 2 recent freaks. His arm strength is as good as say a Russell Wilson which is amazing. He is not in the Matt Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, or Pat Mahomes class. Still if a team loves him, he may be worth the gamble.

Pro Player Comp: Matt Stafford QB, Lions

32) Marquise “Hollywood” Brown

STRENGTHS
    -Great route runner
    -Great speed
    -Great YAC receiver
    -Amazing in open space
CONCERNS
    -Maybe Limited to slot role
    -Foot surgery made him miss combine

    Hollywood Brown brings a unique talent. His ability to RAC is incredible. I feel however that there is little superstar potential in Hollywood Brown. He is really good athletically but not special. He is really good at RAC, but not special. His route running is refined, but not completely polished. He would be a great No.2 option, but does not project as a lead WR.

Pro Player Comp: Emmanuel Sanders WR, Broncos

​
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Breaking Down the NHL's Tankathon 2019

3/1/2019

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By: Alex Drain

It is now the month of March, meaning there are about 5 weeks left in the NHL season. For the league’s upper class, this is the beginning of the push to the playoffs, where postseason seeding comes into play and the bubble push is most dire. But to the league’s bottom feeders, this is a different competitive season: the race to the bottom and a desire to secure the best odds for the 2019 NHL Draft Lottery, where the top picks will be handed out. Of course, it’s a lottery, where even the worst team has a bad chance of getting the top pick (only 18.5%). However, based on your slot, the other scenarios vary greatly. For example, the league’s worst team is guaranteed a top four pick, the second-worst team is guaranteed a top five pick, and so on. This comes into consideration down the stretch as we watch the standings in the last weeks of the season. Below I have listed the five teams with the best shot at locking down the bottom three slots and thus, securing the most optimal Draft Lottery odds, and am trying to game out roughly where they will finish in the standings. 


Ottawa Senators, 22-37-5, 18 games remaining, 0.766 points per game
The current league bottom feeder by a wide margin is going to be tough to catch. Just six weeks ago the Senators were 19-24-5, a respectably poor team. Since then, they are 3-13-0, with the season coming apart at the seams. They traded anything of value at the deadline, including Matt Duchene, Mark Stone, and Ryan Dzingel, three of their four leading scorers, which leaves the team basically a corpse of its former self. The team that was one game away from the Cup Finals in 2017 has been reduced to rubble in less than two years, leaving a couple young pieces (Tom Chabot and Brady Tkachuk) and absolutely nothing else. They are 1-8 in their last 9 and having just sold away their key pieces, it’s hard to see things getting better. Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic has a projections model which has the Sens as the projected worst team by a healthy margin, on pace to finish a full six points lower than anyone else. And what is, hilariously, the worst thing of all? Ottawa doesn’t even have their first round pick, having traded it to Colorado in exchange for Duchene before last year. It’s gonna be a painful few years in Ottawa.

Los Angeles Kings, 23-33-8, 18 games remaining, 0.844 points per game
The Kings are the most likely team to beat out Detroit for second worst. They are currently second worst, and have been in quite a slump, losers of 10 in a row. LA still has many of the key pieces of their two title teams, but for some reason all of their pieces are suddenly bad. Jonathan Quick is now atrocious, and despite a year where scoring has picked up across the NHL, none of Jeff Carter, Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty, Dustin Brown, or Ilya Kovalchuk are even close to a point-per-game. At just over 2.3 goals per game, Los Angeles is one of the worst scoring teams in the NHL and they allow over 3 per game. It’s the type of team that I could easily see having an emphatic bounce back next year if the veterans get back in line. On the other hand, Kopitar is 31, Doughty is 29, Brown is 34, Kovy is 35, and Carter is 34 and it goes without saying that they could use an immediate injection of fresh blood. They only traded Jake Muzzin and a few smaller names at the deadline so it’s fair to believe they won’t get massively worse down the stretch. Their schedule doesn’t strike me as terribly hard, with 9 of their final 18 games against bottom 10 teams in the league, including three against the Ducks. Thus, I concur with Dom’s projection and think they’ll be just a hair better than Detroit in the standings.

Detroit Red Wings, 23-32-9, 18 games remaining, 0.859 points per game

My poor Detroit Red Wings currently sit in 3rd place. A competitive season that has yielded a ton of close games (a topic I’ll be writing about some day soon) has found the Wings on the losing side of things frequently. This has put them in good position to lock down prime lottery odds, provided they can tank the last 18 games, which they seem intent on doing. They traded Gustav Nyquist and Nick Jensen at the trade deadline, which isn’t a massive deal, but they were two of the team’s better pieces. The team does not have an easy schedule either, having to go out west twice and they face a team in the bottom eight just once the rest of the way. It’s not likely to produce a whole lot of wins, and the Luszczyszyn model has the Wings narrowly favored (by 1 point) to snare the league’s second worst record, and second best lottery odds.

Anaheim Ducks, 24-31-9, 18 games remaining, 0.891 points per game
The Ducks are the most astonishing collapse in the league in 2019. Just before Christmas Anaheim was a top 10 team in the NHL, cruising towards the playoffs. Since then they are a ridiculous 5-20-4, destroying their season. Their big issue? They can’t score. Like at all. At just 2.17 goals per game, the Ducks have no offense and they have no player with more than 16 goals! They could really use an immediate infusion of offense from the draft and are not a bad bet to end near the cellar. Their schedule is a bit more difficult than the Kings, and so it wouldn’t shock me if they found a way to drop below Los Angeles down the stretch.

New Jersey Devils, 25-31-8, 18 games remaining, 0.906 points per game
The final team of the major contenders for the cellar, New Jersey is having a down year after making the playoffs last season. A big factor has been the injury to reigning MVP Taylor Hall, who has been out since December and just had arthroscopic knee surgery last week. It’s a tough blow for the Devils, who have struggled mightily in his absence. They have a leaky defense (3.33 goals against per game) and they don’t have another major offensive weapon to pick up the slack outside of Hall. Their remaining schedule is also not easy whatsoever, but they also haven’t been as consistently bad as the preceding four teams on this list, which makes it seem likely to me that they will finish right around the fifth worst slot.

OTHER TEAMS?
Outside of the bottom five, Edmonton lurks as a close-ish sixth, followed by Vancouver and Chicago, but none of those three teams look terribly threatening for a bottom three slot, barring a late season slump. Of course, given the lottery odds, they could easily finish in those given slots and move up if the ping pong balls fall their way, it just isn’t likely.

Conclusion
Following the late season tank is going to be very interesting. In this year’s draft, there is a strong incentive to get top two, since the 2019 Draft appears to have a clear 1A and 1B (Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko), followed by a notable drop off to the 3-6 slots. Once again it looks like Ottawa is the favorite to finish in the cellar, and their pick goes to Colorado, followed by Detroit and Los Angeles, who will likely get very similar odds at Top 2, and Anaheim trails at fourth worst. There always seems to be one team who tanks particularly hard at the end, but it’s tough to tell who that may be. One thing is true: no matter how the late-season tankathon goes, it only matters so much when the lottery comes in late April.

Image Credit: https://imagesvc.timeincapp.com/v3/fan/image?url=https://eyesonisles.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2018/04/53274284-nhl-holds-news-conference-and-draft-pick-lottery.jpg.jpg
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