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Ranking the 13 movies from 2018 that I saw this year

12/31/2018

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By: Alex Drain

I’m back to do my second annual movie column. With the 2018 calendar year coming to a close, I’m ranking the 13 movies released in 2018 that I saw this year. There are still others from this year on my watchlist, which I’ll mention at the end, and I am planning on doing an Oscar ballot on this website. However, this piece is simply a fun and entertaining rank of my favorite movies. These are takes that will make more sense if you’ve seen the films but there are not spoilers in terms of plot, rather it’s more a mashup of thoughts and reviews. Here we go:

13. Isle of Dogs

Let me begin this by saying that I don’t see trashy movies, so coming in at 13th out of 13 in no way means that the movie was bad. Isle of Dogs was very fine. Wes Anderson’s trademark symmetry was very much present and it was a quite picturesque. The plot is heartwarming and with a powerful message, but also balanced with a few solid jokes tossed in as well. The animation is beautiful, but the film felt like it dragged on a bit at the ending as a whole. The climax and resolution was telegraphed and rather predictable, one you could see coming a mile away, yet the time to actually reach the resolution was unreasonably long. Overall, it’s a movie that does a lot of things well, but nothing that blows you out of the park. Nothing wrong with it, but nothing I loved. Unmemorable in a lot of ways, but well done.

12. First Man

Speaking of unmemorable, First Man. This may be the most unmemorable film I’ve ever seen, so much so that when I was discussing the movies I’d seen this year with a big film guy recently, I totally forgot that I had even seen this. The readership of this article is lucky I even remember what happened in it. It’s another Damien Chazelle-Ryan Gosling partnership and it largely did everything it set out to do. It tells the story of Neil Armstrong reasonably well, humanizes him and develops his backstory. It’s shots are tremendous and everything is brilliantly set up, as you would expect from a Chazelle movie. My only real gripe is that the ending was abrupt and sudden, along with the fact that it had no staying power. It tells a nice story and then you move on and never think about it again. Is that worth two hours? Up to you to decide.

11. Solo

I am a Star Wars diehard, and as I always do, I entered the theater in pure terror, bracing for the many ways that they could f*** up this movie after the tumultuous lead up. In the end, it was actually pretty solid. Alden Ehrenreich was very solid as Han Solo and it was an enjoyable movie. There were parts of the plot that I felt were underdeveloped and odd, but I pick those apart more as a Star Wars fan than as a movie fan, which means I can’t give a lot of insight. Solo did lead me to yell audibly in disbelief in a movie theater for the first time ever, but that’s related to a spoiler so you can ask me personally if you want the backstory. Otherwise, I don’t have much else to say. There was absolutely no reason for this movie to be made but the acting and plot were enjoyable enough to make it worth it.

10. Vice

The best way to describe this movie is “angry”. In some ways, it’s more documentary than it is a biopic, though of course what is presented is not factual, but an interpretation of events. A biopic on Dick Cheney is not inherently a bad idea, in fact it’s a very good one. Cheney is a fascinating historical character whose rise to considerable power was quite unlikely. But it doesn’t tell us the story of Dick Cheney so much as it does attempt to recreate a provocative interpretation of the Bush-era that you would have found on The Daily Show from 2006. Thus, it feels almost like a missed opportunity. I understand that making a biopic is very difficult when you are attempting to reconstruct the events of someone’s life that 1.) you don’t really know and 2.) they are not consenting to. In attempting to tie lines between Cheney and the current political climate, the movie almost hackishly misses the true influence that Cheney had. Put more specifically, Vice blames Cheney for everything wrong in today’s current politics and administration, which distracts from the areas of history where Cheney was absolutely influential. Instead of humanizing Cheney and giving him a real backstory (I would’ve liked to know more about Wyoming, please), the film turns him into the evil robot caricature that was paraded around 10+ years ago. It fails to develop key relationships to the plot, such as between Cheney and George W. Bush, instead simply portraying Bush as yet another meaningless chess pawn on the board of Cheney’s path to world domination. Once again, this film was an interpretation of historical events, and it acknowledges that fact right at the beginning, but in doing so, it took the most click-baity interpretation possible, coming off as quite underwhelming. All of that said, Sam Rockwell, Amy Adams, Steve Carell, and most of all, Christian Bale were tremendous. They deserve any and all recognition they get for masterful acting performances in what was otherwise a very middling movie.

9. Boy Erased

I feel about this movie the same that I felt about The Post last year. It’s very much a picture that was created to win awards, but because it feels like it was created to win awards, it won’t win any awards. Recruiting up-and-coming actor Lucas Hedges as the lead and Nicole Kidman as supporting actress, and choosing a compelling issue like conversion therapy set it up so well, but the pieces really didn’t come together. Again, it’s not bad. It’s just nowhere near elite. There was one major plot point in particular that was egregiously underexplored and they left the ending a little short of information, but otherwise it’s very mediocre. Probably not worth your time, but also not a waste in anyway.

8. BlacKkKlansman

The topical matter of the film is in fact incredibly interesting and absolutely worth making a movie about, but the execution was questionable at times. The characters were pretty well developed and the acting was fine. The score was very good and it matched the emotions of the film at various points in time, and I liked the addition of various 70s hits to fit the time period (Lucky Man, Brandy, etc). I don’t have any problems with the movie in that sense. However, I thought some of the attempts to tie it to modern politics felt a bit hackish. Obviously the main audience for this movie is going to be #Resistance types, people who already acutely aware of the ties between Trump/Unite the Right Rally and the 70s KKK. Thus, there really wasn’t a need to toss in as many jabs or direct ties to the modern political climate. I much would have preferred to simply let the audience extrapolate the implications from the topical content, not serving it to them on a silver platter. Still, it’s Spike Lee vintage: provocative and thought-provoking, and not a bad film in anyway.

7. Black Panther

I’m not a Marvel movie fan and it's important to preface my thoughts with that. I don’t dislike them, I’ve also never been a fan. I don’t see many of the movies, I don’t read the comic books, and I don’t really follow the characters. However, Black Panther was a genuinely good movie. The soundtrack was excellent and the plot was engrossing even to those who are not comic book fans like myself. There are times I find myself bored at comic book movies but there was never a single moment of boredom in Black Panther. It was visually pleasing, engaging, and entertaining. I probably won’t watch it again because again, it’s not really my thing, but it’s absolutely worth a watch and no doubt the finest Marvel film I’ve seen.

6. Bohemian Rhapsody

Here we go. I’m going to first preface all of what I’m about to say with the fact that I am a self-described Queen fan. Like most nerds, I too had a teen Queen phase and in the years leading up to the release of Bohemian Rhapsody, I was frankly dreading it. There were so many possible ways to mess up a Freddie Mercury biopic but in the end, I was incredibly satisfied. It should first be noted that the difference between the IMDb user reviews (8.3/10) and the Metacritic reviews (49/100) is the most extreme divide I’ve ever seen for any film and it underscores the divide in how to think about this movie: separating the visual and media experience from it as a raw movie. People who are paid to judge movies as movies are going to find big problems with it. But those who are there to be entertained, to be amazed, and to simply have fun are going to love it. I’m very comfortable being in the latter.

For the first angle, yes, there were deeply flawed parts to the movie. Both in terms of historical events (Queen leaving EMI, “breaking up”, the chronology of his AIDS diagnosis, etc.) but also developing characters and relationships, all of which were underwhelming. I am less harsh than others on each of those points and I think you can reasonably argue that each of those points are more symbolic than they are literal. I’m not going to get into the meat of each of those because again, I’m not here to give spoilers. But I’m sympathetic to most of the arguments. But for myself and so many others, all of that just simply isn’t important or relevant when it is consumed with the otherwise awesome experience that is the movie. Bar none, the greatest trait of the movie is the historical recreation. Malek’s transformation into Mercury is exceptional, given not just how high stakes that role is, but how well he does it. The goal of an actor is to take on the character they’re playing to become that character and Malek morphs into Mercury. Bohemian Rhapsody makes you feel like you were there at the most famous moments of Queen’s career, which to so many of us who were not old enough to have experienced that, is breathtakingly awesome. The soundtrack is well, Queen, and the whole media experience created makes it so that if you are a true fan of the band, it should give you the damn chills. At the end of the day, if you want to be a critic and nitpick away, go ahead. But this film is much like Queen: a band that was imperfect, nerdy, anthemic, and too good for the critics, but just right for the masses.

(in order to resolve this split between film and content, I decide to rank this in the middle. There’s no movie I had more fun at than Bohemian Rhapsody, but it also isn’t really fair to rank it as a movie alone.)

5. A Star is Born

I have no major problems with this movie. I didn’t absolutely love it either. The top observation is that Lady Gaga has a phenomenal voice, but I knew that already. She was a very smart option to cast for that role and Bradley Cooper was fine. His voice isn’t great but he played the part of the fading and scrubby old rocker well enough. The soundtrack was good and catchy and the plot was the same canned one from the previous three versions of the movie. There are a few parts that I would have made differently but overall it was a solid film.

4. Green Book

If you want a feel-good movie for the holidays, then Green Book is for you. Chronicling the story of an Italian-American bouncer and a black pianist traveling the south, Green Book is one of the most wholesome of the year. It’s not going to wow you, but you’re not going to leave unhappy and all the plot ends are appropriately tied up. With heavy hitters like Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali playing the main two roles, it’s a film that is perfectly worth your time, while still dealing with subject matter that is deeper than the face value.

3. Eighth Grade

I’m a huge fan of Boyhood from several years back and Eighth Grade was a very similar film, except being the exact opposite in terms of setting. Rather than a boy, it deals with a girl, and rather than being of gargantuan timeline like Boyhood, this film is compressed into just a week. Yet the message is still consistent and Eighth Grade is yet another impressive encapsulation of the emotions of teenagehood and human adolescence. The performance put on by lead actress Elsie Fisher was far beyond her years and Josh Hamilton was also excellent as her father in the film. It’s also a rather short movie, yet you get all the importance that you could ask for. While set in modern times, it’s relatable for any age and definitely one of the year’s best.

2. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Melissa McCarthy is terrific in her portrayal of the author-turned-forge artist Lee Israel, but it’s not merely an instance of good acting in a bad movie. The story is effective in both humanizing Israel and turning a character who is commiting literal crimes into someone the audience cheers for and in some cases, even likes. McCarthy is great at creating that character and she’s aided by Richard Grant also putting on a good effort as the gay best friend. It’s a crime film turned into a feel good story, in some ways, funny, engaging, and likeable. At only 107 minutes, it’s a rather short movie that packs emotion and plenty of plot into a focused punch.

1. Roma

The best movie I saw this year is the one that’s been getting all the hype and well, that hype is right on the money. If we’re going with one word to sum up this movie, it is “majestic”. Alfonso Cuarón crafts an illustrious world through slow pans and wide shots that he illustrates with immense detail in slow moving and vividly rich scenes. It’s a story of personal relationship, adversity, and triumph in the human condition and is absolutely worth the time it takes to see. I have some nitpicks about scenes that perhaps went on too long or where the movie in particular should have ended, but it’s so darn enriching that it’s impossible to get too aggravated about one thing in particular. I recommend that everyone see this movie and do so in as dark a space as possible because the whole sensory experience is only possible in those types of surroundings. Roma is worth the time, so do it.

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So that’s my list for this calendar year. Again these are just my opinions and I’m always up for discussion and debate. If you want to know the remaining films from this year I want to see before the Academy Awards, this is the essential list:

  • The Favourite
  • Mary Queen of Scots
  • First Reformed
  • If Beale Street Could Talk

I’m also up to seeing Vox Lux and Widows, but they are not as essential. With that, I wish you a Happy New Year and we’ll talk again later. 

Image Credit: 
https://cdn20.patchcdn.com/users/22924509/20180619/041753/styles/T800x600/public/processed_images/jag_cz_movie_theater_retro_shutterstock_594132752-1529438777-6045.jpg
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2018 Hits and Misses

12/31/2018

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By Evan Oesterle
​

It is finally the end of 2018. We got Cavs-Warriors pt. 4, have Alabama-Clemson pt. 4 on the clock, Tom Brady is still going strong, and this is the wild Dow Jones Industrial Average for the year:
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I could do a lot of 2018 wrap up articles: Michigan football collapses again, Michigan basketball is awesome, Detroit sports are terrible, my year recap, etc. But in an era when the media has, in my opinion, become worse than ever before, I think an accountability check is most fitting. I often criticize national news outlets for being one sided, and sports media for being generally terrible and having no accountability. So here goes nothing. I’m going to recap as many of my takes I’ve made this year that I remember by sport, and classify them as hits or misses.

College Football

Hit: Tim Drevno holding Michigan’s offense back
Jim Harbaugh finally got rid of Tim Drevno, and the results were definitely positive. Michigan’s offense went from 85th to 24th (per S&P+). Now to say that the jump is all due to Drevno would be ignorant. Shea Patterson was way better than any of the three quarterbacks that Michigan had in 2017, and Ed Warinner did wonders with the offensive line. But in a vacuum, the play-calling improved (still much room for improvement), and the offense was much better without Drevno. Good riddance. Now Harbaugh needs to get rid of Pep Hamilton and find a real OC.

Miss: Michigan vs Notre Dame; Michigan vs Ohio State; Michigan vs Florida
After being extremely pessimistic about Michigan football for most of the 2017 season, I regained optimism when Shea transferred and was ruled eligible. I was sure Michigan would win in South Bend. 24-17. They lost a close game to a Notre Dame team that went 12-0 before getting demolished in the Cotton Bowl (CFP Semifinal) against Clemson. At the time, that game actually reassured me. There were some negatives, for sure, but Michigan dominated the second half. Then they won 10 games in a row. OSU was 10-1 with a blowout loss to Purdue and close, ugly wins against Nebraska, MSU, and Maryland. I was once again sure Michigan would win. 62-39. On November 24th, I didn’t think it could get any worse. And then as the bowl game started coming closer, I was once again sure Michigan would win. 4-0 all time against Florida. They were mediocre offensively all year. Their defense was solid, but our offense was better. No Bush, Gary, Higdon, and JBB hurt, but they’d be fine. 41-15. I hope my brother (who just got admitted to U of M) has a better 4 years of Michigan football as a student attending the University than I have. No more Michigan football talk (besides the next part of this article) until after the NCAA Tournament.

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Harbaugh is now 0-4 against Ohio State. Image via WWMT Western Michigan.
Sub-miss: Michigan covering crossing routes against Ohio State
Austin Falco requested this, and I owned up to it. I thought Don Brown and Co. would watch film and 1. Stop OSU’s primary source of passing offense: crossing routes and screens 2. Pressure Haskins to make him uncomfortable like Penn State did. I was incorrect. Don Brown and Co. did none of the above. I am disgusted typing this. Rant time: Michigan football has one national championship since World War 2. Ohio State has dominated the ‘rivalry’ for nearly two decades (aka my entire life). Where do our expectations as fans come from? National championships in the early 1900s against Yale and the Chicago YMCA? Bo’s legendary OSU wins (11-9-1) and Rose Bowl losses (2-8)? Seriously, where do these standards come from? Let me know.

Miss: Michigan Football recruiting class finishing strong
After the OSU blowout, I thought the recruiting class would fall apart. Jim Harbaugh, Matt Dudek, and Don Brown proved me wrong. Dax Hill temporarily flipped to Alabama, and it looked like the class was in trouble. But Hill recommitted on the early signing day (although he allegedly silent recommited a week before) and Michigan won some other small battles to finish with a top 10 class. They didn’t get Zach Harrison from Columbus, Ohio, but the fact that it was even a battle says something. I guess.

Miss: Northwestern Football
After Northwestern followed up a season opening win against Purdue with losses to Duke, Akron, and Michigan, I felt it was safe to rule them out of the Big Ten West race. Boy was I wrong. They finished conference play 8-1 (only loss was the Michigan game), challenged Notre Dame, and lost to OSU by less than Michigan. Kudos to Pat Fitzgerald. He may have earned himself an NFL job. (Or he could stay and lead Clemson transfer and former 5-star Hunter Johnson to another Big Ten West title)

Hit: Michigan State Football
This one goes back farther than just the past 365 days. I have firmly believed that MSU was a mediocre football team for the last 3 years. They went 3-9 in 2016 and were one of the unluckiest teams in the country. They went 10-3 in 2017 and won games against Michigan and Penn State teams that were definitely better than them. Now finally in 2018, they went 7-5. I feel validated. I’ll let Mike Valenti finish this point for me (I’d give you a specific part to listen to, but it is 100% pure gold so I recommend listening to all of it):
Truly epic. The Dantonio country club is in full force. Actually though, how is Dave Warner still employed. We’ll come back to Valenti for more help later.

NFL


Hit: Sam Darnold and Lamar Jackson
I said before the draft that I wouldn’t touch any quarterback besides Sam Darnold and Lamar Jackson in the first round. Darnold led the NFL in QBR over the last 6 weeks of the season and Jackson led his team to the playoffs. While I was very wrong about one other rookie quarterback (I’ll talk about him later), I was definitely right about Darnold and Jackson. Darnold has a very bright future. The Jets have a bunch of cap space, a star safety in Jamal Adams, and a high draft pick. I anticipate their head coach opening being one of the most desirable this offseason. I don’t know if Jackson is the long term answer for Baltimore, but he had a great rookie year as teams struggled to defend the Ravens dynamic rushing attack. The Ravens went 6-1 after he took over as the starter, and even though he isn’t an excellent passer yet, at the end of the day winning football games is how most quarterbacks are measured (which is incorrect, stupid, and unfair but true).

Hit: Chicago Bears
Even before they traded for Khalil Mack, I thought the Bears would win the NFC North. Part of that was a lack of faith in the rest of the division: Lions hampered by Stafford’s contract (more on that later), Vikings hampered by Kirk Cousins’ contract, Aaron Rodgers sucking. They had a promising young quarterback in Mitch Trubisky, as well as a solid line, good backs in Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, and added some good pass catchers (Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Taylor Gabriel). But I was more excited about the defense. Safeties Eddie Jackson and Adrian Amos, edge rusher Leonard Floyd, linebacker Danny Trevathan, and corners Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara were enough for me to be sold. Add Khalil Mack to the equation and what do you get? NFC North Champs who get to host a playoff game against the reigning champions this weekend. Their ceiling is probably the NFC Championship game though.

Miss: Baker Mayfield
I deserve the Colin Cowherd treatment from Baker. I thought the Browns wasted their pick on Johnny Manziel 2.0. Yikes. Mayfield is a baller and led the Browns to a 7-8-1 record. They’re gonna be a real problem next year. They’ve got good talent on defense, and Nick Chubb is a great running back, but Mayfield is the real difference maker here. The Browns went 5-3 after Hue Jackson was fired, with the losses coming against 3 playoff teams/division winners: the Chiefs, Texans, and Ravens. With a whole bunch of cap space and a finally competent coaching staff and quarterback, watch out. Believeland is back, and not for Lebron this time.
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Baker Mayfield proved Colin Cowherd, me, and many others wrong this season while breaking the rookie touchdown pass record (27). Image via Oklahoma Channel 4 News.
Miss: Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks
These might deserve to be separate points, but I’m at 3 pages and not close to being halfway done, so I need to start being more brief. I thought the Seahawks were toast. They haven’t had an offensive line in a couple years. The whole Legion of Boom + Michael Bennett + Jimmy Graham all said bye. Kudos to Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson for making me eat my words. I also thought Dak got exposed last year without Elliot and the Cowboys were in for a rough season. Their young defense put together an excellent season (what’s up Jourdan Lewis and Taco Charlton?) led by draft steal Jaylon Smith, and Dak and Zeke rebounded. Whether the Cowboys team is morally comfortable (Elliott and Defensive End Randy Gregory both have off the field issues) is a different conversation for a different day, but this team is fun to watch on the field. These teams will me Saturday in Dallas, and the winner will likely head to New Orleans and lose to the Saints, but it’s safe to say that both had solid seasons.

Sub-hit: Amari Cooper Trade
I received heavy criticism for liking the Cowboys trade. Weird that a 24-year old former Alabama receiver is actually a stud when put in the right situation. Who could've guessed? Oh, I did. I’m trying not to gloat to much on my hits, because some of these misses are humbling, but I got a lot of crap for this one, so it had to happen.

Hit: Patrick Mahomes
I’ve been high on Mahomes since his Texas Tech days. But this one is a special shoutout to my dad and brother. After the first game of the season, I said Mahomes was already the best QB in the league. They told me it was a ridiculous hot take and joked about it for months. Yikes. This might be my biggest hit of all of them this year because I was so sure and so right.
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Patrick Mahomes is the likely NFL MVP after an incredible season where he threw for 50 touchdowns and led the Chiefs to the 1 seed in the AFC. Image via USA Today.
Hit: Matthew Stafford contract and quarterback contracts in general
If I made this take this year, it would be my best. But I made it a long time ago. When Stafford was due for a contract extension, I said I wanted the Lions to let him walk. Almost everyone I know thought I was insane. Let me be clear: a team could win a Super Bowl with Matthew Stafford as its starting QB. What a team can’t do is win a Super Bowl with Matthew Stafford’s contract. Before I get into the details of this, I don’t begrudge Stafford for getting paid. But what I can say is he doesn’t care about winning and the ‘back’ and ‘lack of talent’ around him excuses are garbage. Mike Valenti and I share a very strong opinion on Stafford (more gold; if you’re a Stafford slappie, don’t listen; if you live in reality, please listen):
There will be more Valenti later, don’t worry. But I need to finish my point, because this is a take that arose this year. I’ve really gone down a rabbit hole with quarterback salaries, but I am so convinced my theory is correct that I have to share it: In 1994, Steve Young’s 49ers won the Super Bowl while paying him 13.1% of the salary cap. A quarterback can’t be paid more than that (a higher % of the salary cap) and win the Super Bowl. Proof:
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As displayed, the average salary of a QB to win the Super Bowl since Young is under 7%. What’s the explanation for this? NFL teams have 53 man rosters. If you pay one player 13%, that leaves 87% for the other 52 combined. This year, that would mean paying the other 52 players an average of $2.83 million. You simply can’t build an elite roster with that little remaining money. It’s no wonder then, that the 6 highest paid QBs teams all missed the playoffs this year:

Aaron Rodgers: $33.5M
Matt Ryan: $30M
Kirk Cousins: $28M
Jimmy Garoppolo: $27.5M (Injured for most of the season)
Matthew Stafford: $27M
Derek Carr: $25M

Their teams combined for 31 total wins (an average of less than 6 for each of those teams), and only Cousins’ Vikings were still alive by week 17. Yikes.

One more point on this, there is basically no correlation between Quarterback salary and team wins over the last 5 seasons:
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What does this mean? That a lot of winning in the NFL has to do with luck. Tom Brady taking a hometown discount? That’s helped the Patriots sustain their dynasty for as long as they have. Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Mitch Trubisky, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson. This group of seven quarterbacks (along with Jimmy Garoppolo, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold) are widely regarded as the NFL’s next group of star quarterbacks. But all 7 are in the playoffs. 6 of them won their division this season, and the one that didn’t, Carson Wentz, was injured for half the year. What do they all have in common besides being in the playoffs? Rookie contracts. Getting elite quarterback play on a rookie scale deal allows teams to construct elite rosters around them. The Rams (Aaron Donald) and Chiefs (Justin Houston) have the two highest paid defensive players in the NFL and can afford it because of those rookie contracts for Mahomes and Goff. So what’s the key to quarterbacks and winning in the NFL? Hitting on your draft picks and getting lucky.

College Basketball

Hit: John Beilein > Tom Izzo
This is another take that goes back farther than 2018. To be clear, Izzo’s body of work is better than Beilein’s. He won a national championship and has produced more NBA stars. But Izzo has lost more than a step. Three consecutive years of losing during the first weekend of the tournament? Yikes. Three straight losses to Beilein? Yikes. A draft bust in Deyonta Davis? Yikes. Wasting Jaren Jackson who looks like a steal for the Grizzlies after being taken 4th overall? YIKES. Mike Valenti, take it away:
The flipside of this is that John Beilein has been incredible for the Wolverines. He’s done what Jim Harbaugh, Mark Dantonio, and Tom Izzo have failed to do: adapt. After years of his teams being known for offense efficiency and sharp-shooting, Beilein brought in Billy Donlon 2 seasons ago to be the defensive coordinator. Donlon has since left for Northwestern (who has also improved defensively since his arrival), but in 2017 under Donlon, Michigan improved from 50th overall and 92nd in adjusted defensive efficiency to 20th overall and 69th defensively. They lost a heartbreaker in the Sweet 16 and Donlon left for Northwestern. So what did Coach B do? He went and got Luke Yaklich. Home run hire. Michigan finished 2018 7th overall and 3rd(!!!) in defensive efficiency, and made it all the way to the National Championship game before falling to one of the 3 best college basketball teams of my life in Villanova. They’re currently 4th overall and 4th in defensive efficiency as well as being one of only 4 undefeated teams in Division 1. Congrats John, you figured out your weakness, and adapted. Can you please teach Harbaugh how to do the same?

Miss: Virginia NCAA Tournament Run
When the brackets came out on Selection Sunday last year, I thought Michigan had a great chance at a Final Four run. I thought MSU got screwed by having Duke and Kansas in their region, but Tom Izzo made sure they didn’t have to play any of them (see the Valenti video for more). What I was most sure of: Virginia had a cakewalk to San Antonio. I was sure that Tony Bennett would overcome his tournament struggles and make his first national semifinal appearance. I literally could not have been more wrong. Bennett’s Virginia squad wasn’t just the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed ever, they got blown out by a team that look like a 16 seed one game later against Kansas State. All credit to UMBC, but Tony Bennett, what the hell?
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UMBC was the first 16 seed to ever upset a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Image via Sports Illustrated.
NBA (I’m rapid firing these since I’ve written way, way too much)

Hit: Kawhi Leonard still being a top 5 player. Sorry San Antonio. Could the Raptors actually win the East?

Miss: Russell Westbrook being a superstar. I even said he was better than Kevin Durant one time. Ouch.

Hit: Luka Doncic being the best player in the 2018 draft and having superstar potential.

Miss: Ben Simmons blossoming into a superstar and the 76ers making a deep playoff run last season.

Hit: The Blake trade ruining the Pistons organization even more than it already was. I hate Tom Gores. He’s the second worst owner in the league behind Dan Gilbert.

Hit: The Rockets seriously challenging the Warriors last season. If Chris Paul doesn’t pull his hamstring, the Rockets win the series.  (Chris Paul's contract has destroyed the Rockets)​
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Chris Paul injured his hamstring late in game 5 against the Warriors. Image via Yahoo! Sports.
Everything else

Miss: Elon Musk

Mid-summer, I staunchly defended Elon Musk in our WCBN Sports GroupMe (if you know me well, you know that I, along with many others, spend an unhealthy amount of time debating sports in that GroupMe). This one is specifically for Dalton Potocki, Morris Fabri, Jeremy Parks, and Nate Sorensen, and let me tell you, it hurts to write this. While I maintain that Musk has accomplished much in his career and is brilliant, he has acted like an absolute idiot this year. Congrats Elon, you made me look like an idiot for defending you too. I won’t get into the specifics, but yikes.

Hit: WCBN Sports
If you’ve made it this far in the article, props to you. I barely made it this far writing. But I have to call out one last ‘hit’ for the year. This is definitely the softest paragraph I’ll ever write for this website, and I know I’m going to take a lot of flak for it. When I officially took over for JP back when he graduated in the spring, I had an ambitious set of goals that I wanted to accomplish for WCBN Sports. While they haven’t all been hit through one semester of my reign as supreme leader (I am a firm believer in setting loftier goals than are capable of being met as a motivator), I do want to say I am extremely proud of what has been done. We had 4 hours of radio airtime per week on 88.3 WCBN-FM-Ann Arbor (The Daily Sports Report 6-6:30 pm M-T and a Friday night slot from 7-9 pm that was used for a variety of sports broadcasts and extended DSRs), three additional football broadcasts on-air, covered football, volleyball, men’s soccer, men’s and women’s basketball, and hockey to varying degrees, conducted player interviews with members of the volleyball, men’s and women’s basketball, and baseball teams, expanded again in size, increased listenership across the board, and much more that can’t properly be put into words. This wouldn’t have been possible without former Executive Directors Jeremy Parks and David Carlson, the seniors who taught me how to fish (not in the literal sense) my freshman year including Leo Blavin and Dalton Potocki (who took me on my first road trip to Indiana), Morris Fabri, and Kevin Cline, and especially the executive board who not only tolerates me but has put in many hours of their own time to make everything possible: Alex Drain, Alex Kremer, Alex Hsi (yes we have three Alex’s), Daniel Thompson, Nick Hornburg, Nate Sorensen, Jack Molino, Max Brill, Austin Falco, and Emily Herard. If I could thank every individual member of WCBN Sports for their contributions over my first 2.5 years, I would, but I’m already running way over my page and word targets for this article. Lastly, I’d like to thank our generous donors (who I won’t name in this article for privacy and professional reasons) who make everything we do possible. Our professional grade equipment, uniforms, Soundcloud account, travel and this website would not be possible without all of them. I have 1.5 years left to accomplish a plethora of further goals, but I am so proud of what has already been done by our group to this day. So thank you, to all of you have contributed to making WCBN Sports into what it is today: definitely a hit.
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Alex Drain and Lucas Vargas broadcasted all the way through a lightning delay early in the game against Michigan State. Despite bitter cold and heavy wind, Alex and Lucas did not take a second off. Meanwhile, MSU student radio was nowhere to be found.
All opinions are my own. Stats compiled from ESPN, Kenpom, S&P+, USA Today, and Fox Sports.

Feel free to disagree with anything I wrote in the comments or on Twitter (@E____money).

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Miller's Mock Draft 2.0

12/25/2018

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Mock Draft 2.0
Andrew Miller

1) Arizona Cardinals- Nick Bosa EDGE, OSU
    The Cardinals are in a tight spot with this pick. They have probably the worst offensive line in the recent history of the NFL and a Quarterback who’s skillset makes it imperative to have at least a competent O-line. In that case, you could make the case for the Cardinals to take Alabama Tackle Jonathan Williams. Look for the Cardinals to trade down if they have this spot because they have 2 really good pass rushers in Markus Golden and Chandler Jones. Furthermore, I would put my money on Nick Bosa being the No.1 pick no matter who holds it. He is the best EDGE prospect since Myles Garrett and is in the class of prospect that Jadeveon and Garrett are in. He’s a twitchy athlete who can overpower and run past any Tackle, with minor injury concerns that will be shutdown by any competent medical staff. If the Cardinals do trade down, best believe they will have many suitors.

2) Oakland Raiders- Ed Oliver DT, Houston
    Somebody who can match Jon Gruden’s craziness is coming off the board at No.2, and while taking a DT as No.2 is not the most conventional move, the Raiders have the draft capital to take risks on elite talent. Ed Oliver is one of those elite talents. While the team could not go wrong with either Quinnen Williams or Oliver, Oliver is the clear prospect with a lot more potential. Simply put, people who are 6’3” 290 lbs should not be able to move like Ed Oliver does. If there was ever a player to compare to Aaron Donald, he is the one. Sure he didn’t put up the numbers at Houston, and had some spats with Coach Major Applewhite. That stuff doesn’t bother me because he was mostly double and triple teamed in college, and as long as he owns up to his behavior, GMs should forgive his “antics.”

3) NY Jets- Josh Allen EDGE, Kentucky
    The Jets are quietly on their way to building an elite defense. They have their core with Jamaal Addams, Avery Williamson, Darron Lee, and Leonard Williams; but they need a Pass-Rusher. Josh Allen comes off the board as the perfect antidote to their pass-rushing woes. Allen is the ultimate motor guy with a chip on his shoulder. As a player who didn’t even get an offer from Rutgers, he is uber athletic and powerful who can bull rush and still comeback into coverage when asked. He is the perfect fit for any defense and could be a star EDGE rusher the moment he steps on the field.

4) San Francisco 49ers- Greedy Williams CB, LSU
    Quinnen Williams is the best player available, but the 49ers can’t take 4 D-Lineman in 4 of the last 5 first rounds. Besides, Greedy Williams is as special as it gets at the CB position, of which they need a major upgrade. Watching Williams’ tape is not always fun because he lacks the INT numbers, but that is because he is so good at his man-to-man skills that opposing WRs are never open so no balls are ever thrown his way. I have not been enamored with a combination of man-to-man instincts and elite speed since Jalen Ramsey. Except in this case, there is no faux position controversy with Greedy. He is a lockdown, shutdown corner. My only question with Greedy is his ball skills, not that he doesn’t have them, he just has not had enough opportunity to show me consistency .That is honestly a nitpick, Greedy is one of the few can’t miss prospects in this entire class.

5) Jacksonville Jaguars- Justin Herbert QB, Oregon
    Finally, it seems as though the Blake Bortles era in Jacksonville is over and they can finally move on to an actual Quarterback. The roster is still a good mix of veterans on their contracts and rookies still playing on the rookie wage scale. They need a QB who won’t lose games fast and if they don’t get Flacco this offseason, why not just go for the best college prospect while you have the opportunity? Herbert doesn’t have elite arm strength, but he has a more than acceptable NFL arm. What sells Herbert is his ability to move out of the pocket and throw on the run. Jacksonville lived with the worst version of this for a while and now could finally have a guy who can actually throw a football. The only question will be, will Herbert declare? Well when he sees a guaranteed 8 million dollar signing bonus in front of his face and an awareness of the QB class next year that includes Jake Fromm and Tua Tagovailoa, I think he’ll declare.

6) Atlanta Falcons- Quinnen Williams DT, Alabama
    The Falcons need to do something about the run defense they have and beef up that defensive line somehow. Grady Jarrett is a big man up front but he needs help. In walks Quinnen Williams. He may be the “safe” prospect, but he is a monster up front and a monster against the run. No one is safe running up the gut if Grady Jarrett and Quinnen Williams are there to stop you. To me this is a no brainer pick for the Falcons and the pick should be in not 3 seconds into them being on the clock.

7) Detroit Lions- Devin White LB, LSU
    As a Lions fan it is hard for me to be unbiased when it comes to the Lion’s draft. Ideally, I would want a pass rusher here, but as the last of the elite talents in this class, Devin White to me is a no-brainer. To me White is the best Linebacker prospect in a decade. He’s faster than most safeties, and has ridiculous coverage skills as well as an insane motor. It may not be the biggest need and Trayvon Mullen will be enticing, but you cannot pass up a talent like White at No.7. Some fans may groan because the Lions already have Jarrad Davis. Jarrad Davis is a great run stopping LB with a good nose for the ball and excellent tackling skills. What White gives you is a center fielder at middle linebacker who can cover TEs and slot Receivers, chase down a broken-away  ball carrier for minimal gain (which has been a weakness for Davis), and he can even rush the passer on the edge, which is the Lions biggest need by far. To me the Lions need versaitility and elite talent for the culture change that is happening in Detroit, and Devin White is the perfect guy for that situation.

8) NY GIANTS- Trayvon Mullen CB, Clemson
    I don’t understand why more scouts are not high on Trayvon Mullen in this class. He’s the ideal size, he's got good man-to-man skills, and he’s quick. After Greedy it really comes down to pick your poison with CB prospects. For me I’ll take Mullen and his high floor. This is what the Giants need from this draft: a beefed up O-Line and secondary. The Giants somehow have Eli Manning for another year, which may turn out to be a smart decision so they can punt for next year’s class of Tua and Fromm. In fact. look for the Giants to trade down from this pick to accumulate assets in case they need to trade up in the draft next year. (Don’t count on it with a 1 year older Eli Manning.)

9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Deionte Thompson S, Alabama
    This pick is the Bucs making up for last year. They were primed to take Derwin James and passed up on him for Vita Vea. The Bucs’ secondary is horrendous. Vernon Hargreaves has not become what I thought he could be. The Bucs could improve that with the best center fielder in this draft. Deionte Thompson to me is a better prospect than Minkah Fitzpatrick, he is clearly a better safety in the box and has much better ball skills. The only place Minkah has him is straight up speed (but few can outrun Minkah in the first place). The Bucs are one of the interesting teams in the draft because they need to move on from Jameis Winston, but they cannot afford to overvalue a player in this draft.

10) Buffalo Bills- Jonah Williams OT, Alabama
    The Bills are ascending under rookie QB Josh Allen. Let’s get him some protection, Jonah Williams is by far and away the best lineman in this draft. He has started at Tackle for Alabama since game 1 as a true freshman. That’s telling. Draft “experts” will tell you he is a guard because he is a little undersized at 6’5”, but I don’t care. It feels as though that the NFL won’t let you be a tackle unless you are 6’7”. Jonah Williams is DEFINITELY a tackle. He is the best pass blocker in this draft, and his run blocking technique is stellar. He may not be the most athletic guy on the field, but he should be able to handle NFL DEs with ease. This team needs a little bit of everything on offense, and since there is no receiver worth taking this early, they may as well take a talent like Williams.

11) Green Bay Packers- Jachai Polite EDGE, Florida
    The Green Bay Packers are going to have to make sure that Mike Daniels’ medicals are okay if they are gonna be move on with a plan going forward. However, the Packers’ main problem in McCarthey has already been taken care of, but their second main problem needs to be addressed, and that is the pass-rush. Try as they might Clay Matthews can no longer be the featured pass-rusher anymore, and Nick Perry is good but no game changer. They need to get more athletic at the position and in comes Jachai Polite. He’s an uber-twitchy athlete who will shine the moment the combine hits. He was made to blow by defenders and that is what Green Bay lacks. They need people who can convert speed to power instead of just big bodied bruisers (which they already had). In my opinion Polite will be THE riser of the draft and Green Bay Should be happy to have him.

12) Carolina Panthers- Montez Sweat EDGE, Miss St.
    Montez Sweat is big, he’s fast, he’s powerful, he converts speed to power. These are all traits that do not describe the Carolina pass-rush. This team is too talented and well coached to be picking this high, and their big problem is that they let teams back into games by not being able to rush the passer late. Montez could be a top 10 player in this class if you can overlook the off-field issues. That will be up to each NFL team, but for the purposes of this mock, he is a perfect fit in Carolina.

13) Denver Broncos- Deandre Baker CB, Georgia
    The Broncos are in a predicament because they really need an upgrade at receiver, but there is no one worth taking, The Broncos need a little bit of everything outside their front 7, and it is not incredibly clear where they should start. Perhaps CB is a good place to start, especially with the injury to Chris Harris. This team needs a guy who can cover in zone because they clearly miss Aqib Talib. There could be an argument in taking a Quarterback, but I think GM John Elway does not wanna make that error again. I think he will correctly punt for next year's draft and build a team around a better QB class.

14) Cincinnati Bengals- Rashan Gary DL, Michigan
    In all honesty, this is too low for Rashan Gary to go. He will not last until No.14, let me be clear. He is a physical specimen and the moment he gets to the combine he could be a top 7 player. His lack of production is not as concerning to me considering he got double and triple teamed on most plays with two other good pass rushers still on Michigan’s blitz-happy defense. The tape won’t be great either because he played out of position at Michigan. He is not an EDGE rusher, he can rush off the edge but his ideal role is interior penetrator à la Cam Jordan. Whatever team lands him will be intrigued by his upside. With the Bengals they will get Geno Atkins side-kick and replacement, as well as a gifted interior rusher who can help with the worst run defense in football.

15) Cleveland Browns- Byron Murphy CB, Washington
    The Cleveland Browns have maybe the best, most exciting young roster in football. They really do have a lot of everything, but they could use another CB opposite Denzel Ward. Byron Murphy has really impressed me with his quickness and change of direction. His man-to-man skills are also very impressive. He may be moved inside to a slot role in the NFL, but there is nothing wrong with having the intermediate of the field filled. The Browns should be the most interesting team in the NFL this year and have the draft capital to plug up every hole.

16) Miami Dolphins- Brian Burns EDGE, FSU
    For what feels like the 5th year in a row, it is unclear whether the Miami Dolphins should or will move on from Ryan Tannehill. For my money, one more year can’t hurt and Cam Wake can’t play forever (try as he might). Charles Harris has not really done anything so why not hedge their bets on athletic pass rushers? Not flashy but definitely well needed.

17) Washington Redskins- Dwayne Haskins QB, OSU
    By all appearances, Alex Smith's NFL career may be over. It is time for a new era in Washington that has never truly moved on from the RG3 debacle. They need to build around a new quarterback. And truth be told, Haskins is not that far off from Herbert. He has an ok arm, with a good release on the ball. He is clearly mobile and can make down the field throws. I think he is a relatively safe Quarterback prospect. The question is does he have star potential, but in the right situation, anyone can be good in the NFL. He will go to Washington with a great O-Line, and solid receivers with plenty of potential along with Derrius Guice.

18) Philadelphia Eagles- Mack Wilson LB, Alabama.
    A lot of the strength of this class, the former Super Bowl champs already have. They have pass-rushers and Lineman, they NEED CB help. After the top 4 there is a drop off in talent, and Mack Wilson is no consolation prize. He is an athletic game changing LB in the middle of the field. With the Eagles unsure of the future of Jordan Hicks; they could sure use a replacement in the middle of the field. Wilson is great in coverage, and recognizing and diagnosing plays. I think the Eagles can worry about their secondary later and take elite talent right away.

19) Indianapolis Colts- Jeffery Simmons DL, Miss St
    Yet another top D-Lineman falls due to other needs. Yet in this case he falls to a team that really needs a space-eater up front. The Indianapolis Colts have more money than any other team to spend in free agency so we don’t know what they will look to do come draft night, but I know Chris Ballard has an eye for talent and will see Simmons much in the same vein as a player he helped draft in Kansas City, and another Miss St alum, Chris Jones. With all that draft capitall do not be surprised if the Colts are a Super Bowl favorite this time next year.

20) Tennessee Titans- Noah Fant TE, Iowa
    It sucks when a career underrated player like Delanie Walker has to leave due to injury but this is where we sit. In drafting Noah Fant, they draft the best TE prospect since OJ Howard and with the production that Howard didn’t have. He is quick and maybe one of the best route runners regardless of position in this class. Plus, you know if you get an Iowa degree, that automatically makes you tough. This should be a no brainer for the Titans if he’s available.

21) Minnesota Vikings- Yodny Cajuste OT, WVU
    The Minnesota O-Line has continuously been the Achilles heel of the Vikings all season. Teams know that you can just rush the edges and give Kirk Cousins no time to throw the ball. If they could find a way to move opposing lines, this offense could be special. The Vikes could go with Greg Little, but I have way more questions about whether or not he could bust, despite his potential. Yodney is just a massive mauler who is a starting Tackle the moment he hits the field. Sometimes safe isn’t sexy, but it gets the job done.

22) Seattle Seahawks- Dre’Mont Jones DL, OSU
    The Seattle Seahawks have quickly turned their roster into a contender out of nowhere. However, they need to quickly fix the run defense on this team if they are going to contend with the Sean McVays and Kyle Shanahans of the world. They have no real DTs who really scare you, unless you like Malik McDowell. Dre’Mont Jones can come in and already be one of their best run-stuffers. He’s big and powerful, which is a good counterpoint to their speed based defense.

23) Baltimore Ravens- N’Keal Harry WR, ASU
    It feels as though the Ravens have been looking for a WR for the last five drafts. They tried getting 2 TEs, and that hasn’t looked incredibly successful yet. They have a bunch of guys who can fill a role in an offense but they need a go-to guy. Harry is an enigma: he is a 6’4” receiver who is great after the catch, but doesn’t necessarily wow you with his ball skills. I think this is the perfect fit for a guy like Lamar. A big target where if he refines his ball skills can catch over any CB, and even more so get a lot after the catch when the play breaks down and Lamar wants to scramble. At the end of the day the first draft after the Ozzie Newsome era will give the Ravens the one thing Ozzie could never draft.

24) Pittsburgh Steelers- Clelin Ferrell EDGE, Clemson
    The Steelers have found their No.1 pass-rusher in TJ Watt. They could use a No.2 guy, and that is probably what Clelin Ferrell will succeed at in the next level. Clelin Ferrell is an okay athlete, but it’s his instincts and technique that will allow him to succeed at the next level. He has the ability to play in any scheme and be successful; however due to his lack of athleticism, he is not suited to be a team's go-to pass rusher. Luckily for Ferrell ,he will be able to shine when teams are focusing in on TJ Watt and the combo of Tuitt and Heyward.

25) Oakland Raiders (via DAL)- Devin Bush LB, Michigan
    The Raiders defensive woes go way beyond just the interior pass rush, it’s everywhere. Teams regularly pass up the middle and make long gains on the runs once they get through the first level of the defense. Devin Bush is a stud Linebacker whose main job will be to clean up all the messes the front seven cause. If there is someone who gets a glimmer of open space, best believe that Devin Bush will clean up the gap real fast. Devin Bush is one of my favorite players in this class, and to me he almost screams “Raiders Football”; tough and physical with deceptive speed. The Raiders will have a long ways to go, but with 3 first round picks, they have a lot of room to work with.

26) New England Patriots- Irv Smith Jr. TE, Alabama
    It’s time. The Patriots have to start getting ready to replace a guy who is almost synonymous with Patriots football. Yet it is not Tom Brady. I would go Daniel Jones here, but I think the idea of selecting a player who will not be able to help win right away in the first round has to be incompatible with the cyborg known as Bill Belichick. Irv Smith is a guy who can come in, play with Gronk, and eventually take his place. With the Patriots seamless transition into a run-first football team, they could use the draft's best blocking TE in order to make it easier on Sony Michel. Not only is he a good blocker, he is a great route runner and can be lined up all around the field, if need be. Plus, it also works into Bill Belichick being unable to resist a Nick Saban coached player.

27) Oakland Raiders (Via CHI)- D.K. Metcalf WR. Ole Miss
    The Raiders need to get their replacement for Amari Cooper. They may as well swing for the fences with D.K. Metcalf. Metcalf would be the No.1 receiver in this class if it weren’t for his medical issues. Of all the receivers in this draft, he may be the only one with top 10 receiver potential. However the tape of him is not very consistent in terms of his route running ability, and his medicals are a legit concern. However, on tape his athleticism popped as much as any top receiver in the past few draft classes. At the beginning of the year everyone believed that AJ Brown was the top receiver in this class and now it turns out it is his own teammate. The Jon Gruden era wanted a rebuild, well with 3 picks in the first it better have been worth Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper.

28) Kansas City Chiefs- David Montgomery RB, ISU
    The Kansas City offense is really missing its running attack. Patching it up with Spencer Ware and Damien Williams has only resulted in straight losses and forcing Mahomes to win on his own (which is a task he might be up to). This team has to get a power run game back, and no one defines power run in this class like David Montgomery. There is no better in between the tackles runner in this class. He epitomizes the North to South run attitude. It remains to be seen how he will run in the 40, but on tape he is deceptively fast. It may be a reach for a running back this early in the draft, but the Chiefs can’t afford to continue relying only on the passing game if they wanna make the best of this Super Bowl window.
    
29) Houston Texans- Greg Little OT, Ole Miss
    This pick kind of reminds me of the recently Seattle Seahawks strategy. Draft the best Tackle no matter what, even if he has bust potential. And yes, Greg Little has bust potential, but Greg Little has more potential than any tackle in this draft, even Jonah Williams. He is the most athletic of the group, yet matches up with the 6’6/7” size needed to pass the scout's questions. The only downside is that he is unrefined in his technique. The Texans desperately need to upgrade at the Tackle position. Even though the interior line has improved recently, Martinas Rankin is still a liability on the line. What is hurting Deshaun Watson this year has been the little time he has to throw until he has to scramble. Greg Little may be a risk, but it is a necessary risk.

30) LA Rams- Elgton Jenkins OC, Miss St
    The Rams are an interesting team to predict. They kinda have needs everywhere, yet nowhere at the same time. They need pass-rushers, but have some developing and Aaron Donald. They could use a CB in case they need to replace Peters and Talib, but they have time to address that. With the 30th pick I suggest they take the best player at a position they are of low key need in. The Tackles and offensive scheme are great in LA. Todd Gurley can hide a lot of weak points, but it should be obvious that the interior of the Rams O-Line is a problem. They constantly have to pull guards, and it puts Goff in danger if his first target isn’t there. Most of the time in a Sean McVay offense it is, but they could use help on the interior. Easily the best center in the class, he can play guard if John Sullivan plans to keep playing or step right into center if need be. Could you imagine a world where Todd Gurley’s life is easier, and Jared Goff is given more time. I’d be even more scared for opposing defenses.

31) LA Chargers- David Edwards OT, Wisconsin
    The LA Chargers have very few holes on their team except for one and that is Linebacker. Well in this instance there is no Linebacker worth taking in the first round after White, Wilson and Bush. If there is no Linebacker to take it NEVER hurts to beef up an Offensive Line. David Edwards may exclusively be a Right Tackle in the NFL, but that should not be an issue. Wisconsin Linemen always come out strong and ready to be physical. Plus, the Chargers have improved on the interior of the line, but the Tackles are a bit of a weakness. Make life easier for Melvin Gordon and Philip Rivers.

32) Green Bay Packers (via NO)- Marquise Brown WR, Oklahoma
    It never hurts to help Aaron Rodgers and get him more weapons. The Packers have been looking for a No.2 opposite Davante Adams for what seems like forever. With Randall Cobb set to hit Free Agency, it seems like the perfect time to get a new slot target. Marquise Brown would thrive in an offense led by Rodgers. He is the best route runner in this class, and has great after the catch ability. With Davante running deep routes, and Equanimeous being a deep 50/50 catcher, Marquise Brown will step in as Aaron’s go to safety and yard-getter.



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Ranking the 10 Best Prospects for the Detroit Tigers

12/19/2018

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By: Alex Drain

We’re now 100 days from the start of the MLB season. The Detroit Tigers are likely headed for another subpar season in the midst of their rebuilding project, but there will be plenty of intrigue in 2019 at the minor league level. As a result, I am here to issue my rankings for the top 10 prospects in the farm system of the Detroit Tigers. Let’s start in at #1:

1. Casey Mize, RHP. Age in 2019: 22. Minor League Location: AA. ETA: 2020

Mize is the best prospect in the Detroit system and one of baseball’s premier prospects after being the undisputed #1 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft. The right-hander from Auburn had a stellar three year career in the SEC, going from an unheralded high school prospect to the ace of the staff. Defined by his pinpoint fastball command, Mize’s heater sits in the mid-90s and his strikeout pitch is a filthy splitter, alongside an improving slider. Mize only pitched a few innings in the minor league squads last year after logging a career high 114.2 innings in college, so 2019 will be the first real glimpse of Mize in the Tigers’s system. He will likely start in Double A Erie but given his status as an elite college pitcher, he should be on the fast track to the MLB. A look at past highly regarded college pitchers reveals them to generally make the MLB within a year or two of being drafted, so assuming Mize does okay in AA/AAA, it is reasonable to expect him to debut in Detroit in 2020. Mize has legitimate top of the rotation stuff and is already quite polished, he just needs to continue to improve going forward.

2. Matt Manning, RHP. Age in 2019: 21. Minor League Location: AA. ETA: 2020

When Matt Manning was picked in the top ten of the 2016 MLB Draft by the Tigers, it was regarded as a boom or bust selection and perhaps too risky for a top ten pick. Manning was the definition of raw at the time, having only pitched in high school for a few years prior to being selected, and he had the option of playing college basketball instead. Since being selected, Manning has begun to work his way through the Tigers’s system and he is coming off of a phenomenal 2018 season that has many beginning to regard him as the making of a potential premier MLB pitching prospect. At 6’6”, Manning has the ideal frame for a power righty in the modern MLB, with his fastball already touching high 90s and the hope would be to have it sit consistently in the 95 mph range. His other deliveries, including his power curve, are still coming along, but with time have the potential to be plus strikeout pitches. Manning started 2018 in Single A West Michigan, still struggling with command on occasion but he largely overpowered those hitters, racking up 76 K’s in 55 innings, earning him a promotion to High A Lakeland. There he posted a tremendous statline of a 2.98 ERA and 0.99 WHIP paired with 65 K’s in 51.1 innings, and most importantly had much better command. That earned him another promotion to Double A Erie, where he only made two starts before the season ended. Set to be just 21 years old in 2019, expect the Tigers to continue to be patient with Manning, wanting to delicately craft him, which likely means he will be in Erie for most or all of 2019. His peak projection is pure dominance and is probably higher than Mize’s, due to his size. He’s still got a long way to go, but his development has been a pure joy to watch for Tigers fans for someone who was regarded as such a risky pick.

3. Isaac Paredes, SS. Age in 2019: 20. Minor League Location: AA. ETA: 2020.

Once considered a throw-in as part of the Justin Wilson trade, Paredes has suddenly shot up through the Tigers’s farm system and rendered the trade he was a part of to be a gift that keeps on giving to Detroit baseball fans. Paredes is only going to be 20 years old in February, which is one of his greatest attributes as a prospect: that he’s so far ahead of his age. The young Mexican shortstop was long regarded as an under-the-radar prospect, but is finally starting to get some recognition after a standout 2018. He started the year in High A Lakeland, posting a .783 OPS while playing against players who were an average of 3.5 years older than him, earning him a Florida State League All-Star game selection and a promotion to Double AA Erie. Even more impressive is what he did in Erie, posting an .864 OPS across 40 games to close out the season, playing against players who were an average of 5.5 years older than him. Paredes’s most promising ability is that he seems to project as a plus MLB hitter. While he hasn’t always hit for average, he knows how to take a walk, posting OBP’s of about 80 points higher than his batting average across different minor league levels, and he has emerging power. In 158 games across Single A, Double AA, and the Mexican Fall League, Paredes swatted 18 homers, despite still being just 19. As he continues to get stronger and more mature, it’s not hard to see how Paredes could eclipse 20 homers in the majors, with potentially higher power possible. It remains to be seen if Paredes can stick at shortstop long-term, as his arm is pretty good but his speed and range are somewhat reminiscent of Jhonny Peralta, which lead many to think he might have to slide over to 2nd or 3rd. Regardless, his ahead-of-the-curve development means he will start 2019 in Double A Erie and has the potential to reach Triple A Toledo by the end of the year. The Tigers don’t want to rush him, but if he continues to hold his own against players much older than him, it may not be long before we see Paredes in the show.

4. Daz Cameron, OF. Age in 2019: 22. Minor League Location: AAA. ETA: 2019.

Every Tigers fan knows that Comerica Park is a remarkably expansive centerfield that requires the perfect kind of athlete to adequately play a full season out there. The good news for the Tigers is that their farm system seems to have a promising prospect tailor-made for that job: Daz Cameron. Cameron was a former first round pick of the Houston Astros and was considered a Top 100 MLB Prospect prior to a dreadful 2016 season that saw him fall off the radar. He had a solid 2017 that redeemed him as a prospect and a campaign that also saw him traded to Detroit in exchange for Justin Verlander. In 2018, Cameron had a monster season that may well land him back firmly on the Top 100 lists and has him knocking on the door of the MLB. Cameron started 2018 in High A Lakeland and was moved up to Double AA Erie after about 50 games. In Erie he posted an .837 OPS across about 50 games, which earned him a late season promotion to Toledo, where he played about 15 games before the season concluded. He played 20 games in the Arizona Fall League following the season, where he quadruple slashed .342/.435/.468/.903. Cameron is regarded as an above average fielder, with a strong arm and good speed, all of which make him a natural fit to be a Comerica Park center fielder. However, it’s the improving bat that helps his overall prospect outlook. Cameron stole 33 bases in the 146 games he played in 2018 across the four leagues and while he hit just 9 homers, he had hit 14 in 2017, so there is still the potential to be a future 20/20 guy. Regardless, his mix of defense and offense put him on the doorstep of the MLB, likely to start the season in Triple A Toledo, with the chance to earn an MLB call-up at some point this season.

5. Franklin Perez, RHP. Age in 2019: 21. Minor League Location: AA. ETA: 2020

Unlike all of those prior prospects, who had stellar 2018 campaigns, Perez had a very, very bad 2018, though most of it was not his fault. The young Venezuelan righty ran into serious injury issues in 2018, problems that essentially wiped out his entire season. He suffered a lat strain in March and then had right shoulder tightness in July, leading the Tigers to shut him down. All in all, he pitched a grand total of 19.1 innings in 2018, struggling mightily in all of them. Prior to this past season, Perez was regarded as a top 50 prospect in all of baseball, and at the time, was the prize of the Tigers’s system. He still has the chance to reach that ceiling, but 2019 will be crucial. The good news for Perez is that the lost year isn’t the worst thing ever, since he was already so far ahead of the curve, having reached AA at age 19 in 2017, when he was traded from Houston to Detroit as the centerpiece of the Verlander trade. He will only be 21 in 2019, so there is still plenty of time for Perez to improve and mature. The Tigers will likely place him in Double A Erie, assuming he shows up ready and healthy for Spring Training. At his peak, Perez could be a top of the rotation starter and his floor was pegged to be a solid MLB starter. He sports a mid-90s fastball and a curveball with the potential to be a plus-MLB pitch. He might be the top prospect to watch in the Tigers's system in 2019, as he needs a strong campaign, but given how quickly he progressed through the minors prior to his injuries, if he can be fully healthy, there’s no reason to believe he won’t get back on track.

6. Beau Burrows, RHP. Age in 2019: 22. Minor League Location: AAA. ETA: 2019.

Burrows was the Tigers’s first round selection in 2015, taken late in the first round and he’s slowly moved his way up through the farm system. In 2018, Burrows spent the entire year in Double A Erie and it was overall a pretty solid season. The final statline of a 4.10 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP weren’t terribly impressive, though it was a tale of two seasons, as Burrows had a 3.63 ERA across his first 17 starts, before tailing off considerably in his last nine. The right-handed Texan is led by his power fastball, which has the chance to be a plus-MLB pitch. His secondary stuff is not great and will need to continually be refined moving forward. The ceiling for Burrows is not as high as it is for Mize, Manning, or Perez, but he could certainly become a middle of the rotation guy if things pan out. If they don’t, he may become simply a bullpen arm, which is not a terrible scenario. I’m not sure if the Tigers will send Burrows back to Erie, though I think he’ll start in Toledo. He would ideally spend almost the whole season in Toledo, maybe getting a September call-up to Detroit, or a spot start here or there, hoping to fully break through in 2020.

7. Alex Faedo, RHP. Age in 2019: 23. Minor League Location: AA. ETA: 2019.  

In the run up to the 2017 MLB Draft, Florida RHP Alex Faedo was considered a top three prospect and a potential #1 overall selection. His junior season with the Gators saw Faedo suffer injuries, though he rebounded in time to put on a dominant outing in the College World Series, helping Florida win it all. The Tigers, who had a mid-first round selection, picked Faedo despite the injury concerns, and immediately shut him down because he had already pitched 123 innings. At the time, it was seen as a steal and Faedo was in the 50-60 range on most prospect lists entering 2018. Then things went haywire. Faedo was good, but not dominant, in High A Lakeland and was moved up to Erie where he struggled big time. Across 12 starts, Faedo had a 4.95 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. Most concerningly, he gave up 15 homers in 60 innings, getting smacked around with ease. All of this dates back to a loss in fastball velocity, which dropped from the 93-96 range he had in college to just 90-92 mph this past season. No one is really sure what happened, but it’s not a good sign. Perhaps it was residual from injury or due to bad conditioning, but regardless, Faedo needs to either figure out how to pitch without an electric fastball, or show he can regain that heat. I’m not sure if he will start in AA or AAA this year, but given his college pedigree, he’s the type of guy who should be on the fast track to the MLB. The guy the Tigers thought they were getting out of college could be an above-average MLB starter. The one from last year? Probably not an MLB pitcher at all. 2019 is a huge year for Faedo.

8. Willi Castro, SS. Age in 2019: 22. Minor League Location: AAA. ETA: 2019/2020.

The Tigers acquired Willi Castro at last year’s trade deadline in a deal that sent Leonys Martin to Cleveland. All things considered, it was a tremendous trade for a largely meaningless rental in Martin. So who is Castro? He is a soon-to-be 22 year-old shortstop from Puerto Rico who was considered a legitimate prospect when the Tigers acquired him. At that time, he was struggling in Double A on the heels of a solid 2017. After the trade, he lit Eire on fire and earned a brief promotion to Toledo before the year ended. All in all between Akron and Erie, his 2018 AA stat-line was .263/.317/.397/.714, with 9 HR’s and 17 steals. He’s a rather well-rounded prospect, with that solid but not great bat, as well as being pretty fast and with a good arm, though inconsistent defense. He’s the most well-rounded SS in the Tigers’s system and has a good chance to reach the major leagues. What’s his projection when he gets there? Not sure, but he has the chance to be a starting shortstop in the show if he can continue to hit for average as he likely plays 2019 in Toledo and cleans up some of the defensive inconsistencies.

9. Parker Meadows, OF. Age in 2019: 19. Minor League Location: A-/A. ETA: 2022.

The Tigers decided to switch up their draft strategy in 2018 and go for guys with high upside and Meadows was the manifestation of that in the early second round. The outfielder from Georgia was tabbed by the Tigers because of his high potential, though he still has a very long way to go. Meadows comes from a promising bloodline, as he is the brother of Austin Meadows, a former first round pick and now the starting outfielder for the Pirates. Parker projects similar to his brother: an all-around athlete who can be a good defender, base stealing threat, and plus hitter. At 6’5”, Parker has the ability to have a bit more power than Austin, though he will need to grow into his frame considerably. At his peak he could be a starting MLB outfielder and a 20/20 threat. But once again, he’s only 19 years old, so that much is a long way away. After being drafted, he went to Rookie Ball and then to Low A Connecticut and posted solid numbers. He’ll likely start 2019 in either Low A or Single A. Don’t expect to see Meadows anytime before 2021, and that would only be if he becomes an absolute stud. More likely is that he would arrive in Detroit in  2022 or later, but he’s still a valuable name in the Tigers’s system.

10. Jake Rogers, C. Age in 2019: 24. Minor League Location: AAA. ETA: 2020.

The final piece of the Verlander trade, Rogers was the top catcher in the Houston system when he was dealt to Detroit. Rogers was a third round pick out of Tulane in the 2016 MLB Draft and quickly began to work his way up through the minor leagues. The plus side to Jake Rogers is that he is a tremendous defensive player, which is pretty darn valuable at the catcher position. Here’s a clip of him throwing out a solid minor league base stealer by a country mile. MLB Pipeline voted him the best defensive catching prospect in all of baseball before the 2018 season. The question with Rogers is whether he will be able to hit enough to be a starting major league catcher. The answer is very murky. Last year he was in Double A Erie and he had a tale of two seasons: in the first 37 games (152 PA), he hit a ghastly .157/.240/.224/.464 with 47 K and just 3 HR. In the final 62 games (256 PA), he hit .257/.344/.528/.871, with 65 K and 14 HR. Which one is the real Jake Rogers? Hard to tell. His full season statline as a result was .219/.305/.412/.717, which isn’t great, but the total 17 HR’s is a plus and the fact he can draw walks is important. Rogers, by being a catcher, doesn’t need to be a great hitter if he’s such a plus defensively and has some power, but he certainly can’t perform like he did at the start of last season. 2019 will be an important season for the soon-to-be 24 year-old catcher, as he will likely be in Triple A Toledo, on the doorstep of the major leagues. He needs to show he can be a steady offensive player to work himself prominently into Detroit’s future plans.

Just missed the cut:
  • Kyle Funkhouser, RHP
  • Kody Clemens, 2B
  • Carlos Guzman, RHP

Graduating:
  • Dawel Lugo, 2B
  • Christin Stewart, OF

Conclusion:
The Tigers have done a solid job replenishing their farm system with overall talent. I’m not a prospect guru, so I can’t rank the MLB systems, but the early lists seem to suggest that Detroit’s system has now been elevated to the 7-13 range of good but not elite. Since the team officially entered “rebuilding mode” at the 2017 deadline, they’ve added 7 of the 10 players on this list, either through trade or high draft picks due to the disastrous 2017 season, as well as adding Jeimer Candelario, who’s now on the MLB team. That’s a pretty solid job of adding talent, but there is still a lot more work to do, given how barren the system was before 2017. As noted in this list, the team is very heavy on arms but pretty light on bats, which is something that will need to be rectified going forward. Additionally, they are really thin at first base and could use more outfield and catcher prospects in the future. However, more than anything else, the team simply needs elite prospects. They’ve got a lot of guys at a lot of different positions. Castro at SS, Clemens at 2B, Paredes at SS/3B, Cameron in CF, Rogers at C, as well as the bulk of their starting pitching prospects. Many of those names will probably see the MLB and are all good bets to get there. However, the system lacks the big time, dynamite prospect. The White Sox have Eloy Jimenez, the Blue Jays Vlad Guerrero Jr., the Padres Fernando Tatis Jr., the Braves have Ronald Alcuña. The Tigers are yet to possess that crown jewel type guy. Manning or Mize could easily become that, they just aren’t there yet, which is something to monitor going forward. 2019 should bring another infusion of talent into the system as well. The Tigers will have the #5 overall pick in the Draft, which will give them the ability to add another top tier prospect to the system, and they can trade guys in season as well, Castellanos and the newly-signed Tyson Ross come to mind, as well as the potential question over Michael Fulmer and Matt Boyd. For now, things are coming along and a lot of the new blood should hit the MLB within the next two years, but there is still more progress to be made before the rebuild turns a corner
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NFL MVP Race Resume Rundown

12/9/2018

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MVP Resume Breakdown as NFL Season Enters 4th Quarter
By Daniel Thompson

    With the season officially 75% of the way done, the MVP race is about as hot as it gets right now. Every team has 4 games remaining, meaning there’s plenty of time for any of the front runners to improve their resume or ruin their shot at earning the MVP. This year’s race is particularly interesting to me because there has been a bit of a changing of the guard at the top of the QB position. Tom Brady has still been a top 10 quarterback this season, but is finally beginning to look like the years have caught up on him. It’s irrefutable that Brady hasn’t been less dominant since the early 2000s, and 2018 has been debatably the worst season of his career barring injury and his rookie season as a fourth-string QB. All signs are pointing to 2018 being the first year in which Brady doesn’t receive a vote for MVP since 2012. Likewise, Aaron Rodgers has been good, but has failed to live up to his lofty standards so far as well. His team’s record certainly keeps him out of the MVP conversation, and in all likelihood have to win out and get lucky to make the playoffs. While Rodgers has been out of the picture in two of the previous five seasons due to injury, this is the first season in a while where Rodgers doesn’t seem to be able to will the Packers to victory. Of course, the other QB who has been consistently been at the top of the QB hierarchy for the past half-decade is MVP contender Drew Brees -- but more on him later. Of course, the 2018 NFL season cannot be discussed without Patrick Mahomes. His performance this year has exceeded the wildest dreams of Chiefs fans and it looks like Mahomes will be in the MVP conversation for years to come. Jared Goff leads the team with the best record in the league and is fourth in yards, TDs, and passer rating. Andrew Luck has quieted the critics this season after disappearing for nearly three years, but he’s not in the MVP race this year. Five first round rookie QBs all have multiple wins under their belts now, and Mitch Trubisky and DeShaun Watson lead a pair of 8-3 teams. It does finally feel like the long anticipated transition from the old-guard of NFL QBs is underway, and with it a new batch of players to award MVPs. Every player I will consider has never won the award previously, so voter fatigue will not be an element in this conversation for the first time in years. With all the pieces set up for the most interesting MVP race in years, I’ll be breaking down the campaigns for the four QBs and two RBs who still have a chance.


Patrick Mahomes, QB Kansas City Chiefs
    Of course, this race has two heavy favorites: Mahomes and Brees. QBs have won 5 consecutive MVPs, and these two QBs have been the two best all season, and in almost every way have put together near carbon copy resumes this season. Statistically, these have definitely been the two best QBs with both QBs leading in several categories. Winningly, both command 10-2 teams, with the slight advantage going to Mahomes, whose Chiefs are currently in first place of the AFC and control their seeding destiny. Mahomes’ real advantage comes in how much he has transformed this offense from last year. Brees has been the starter for nearly every game in New Orleans since 2006, so no one really has any clue what this offense would look like without him. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have undergone a nearly unprecedented offensive explosion from 2017 to 2018. This metamorphosis is especially impressive when you consider that Mahomes took over for a respectable starter in Alex Smith, who clearly had been keeping the Redskins afloat prior to his injury. Of course, both the Saints’ and Chiefs’ offenses are loaded with talent outside of QB, but the Chiefs have gone from an elite offense in 2017 to being an all-time great offense in 2018 thanks to Patrick Mahomes. Using Football Outsiders’ DVOA offensive efficiency metric, the Chiefs had the 4th best offense in the NFL in 2017 with a 15.7% offensive efficiency. In 2018 their offensive DVOA has soared up to 39.0% (+23.3%), good enough for 4th highest of all time. I tried to find a similar positive jump in recent years, and there just isn't one. The best comparison I could find is Peyton Manning falling from elite in 2014 to a bad back-up QB in 2015. In 2014 the Broncos came in at an even 20.0% DVOA and then fell off a cliff along with Peyton Manning in 2014, with a -8.7% (-28.7%) DVOA. Of course, neither of these changes were entirely in the QB, but Mahomes has made Alex Smith look like a back-up quarterback, which speaks volumes to how good he’s been this season, and would suggest Mahomes’ play style has spread the field and allowed everyone in offense to shine. In more traditional stats, Mahomes leads the league with 41 TDs (9 ahead of second) and is only 22 yards behind Ben Roethlisberger in passing yards with 3923. The only real blemish on his resume is his 10 INTs, five of which came in the Patriots and Rams games.

Drew Brees, QB New Orleans Saints
    Brees, has just about every reason to vote Mahomes going for himself as well. His impact on his offense might be easier to overlook due to his consistency for over a decade, but that also plays out in his favor in the sense that votres may be compelled to vote for the best QB to never win MVP while they still can. Make no mistake, if Brees wins this year, the MVP will not be a lifetime achievement award. He has been debatably the best QB in the league and plays for debatably the best team. His lack of bad plays and bag games probably would have made him the favorite. Until he had a bad game filled with ugly plays. This award was Brees’ to lose until his no-good very bad Thursday against the Cowboys. He still has debatably the best statistics in the league, but Mahomes has not been contained like that once this season. Brees was limited to 39 first half passing yards, and 127 passing yards total, including an interception that may have been the worst of his career. Brees still has plenty of time to recover, but he may need some help. Ultimately, I think MVP voters think more about season storylines than stats, but Brees has certainly avoided the negative plays that may have cost an already talented team. While Brees has thrown for 11 less touchdowns and over 600 less yards, he has thrown three interceptions to Mahomes’ 1o and taken 12 sacks to Mahomes’ 20. A criticism of Brees could be that he throws more screens in the backfield to great athletes, making his job easier than Mahomes’. However, Brees ranks 11th in air yards per completion while Mahomes ranks 6th, per NFL Next Gen Stats. So neither QB has been remarkable in that department, but both are good. Eclipsing Peyton Manning in all-time passing yardage will certainly only do Brees favors come voting time. Statistically, these two QBs are close enough that I think most voters will come down to picking whichever narrative they like best: the sophomore QB who has transformed his team, or the reliable legend who is flourishing while he has a competitive team again.

Jared Goff, QB Saint Louis Rams
    The argument for Goff comes down to him being one of the best QBs and playing for the team with the best record in the NFL. There is no doubt that the Rams are a great team, if not the best in the league and Goff has had a fantastic season. I don’t believe that many voters out there think Goff is the best QB in the NFL, but he is 4th in passing yards, 6th in TDs, 4th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, and probably most importantly, tied for first in 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives. Only DeShaun Watson also has four of each. I definitely anticipate Goff to receive a few votes for making a ton of crucial plays for the team that will probably be the Super Bowl favorites by the time the ballots are cast. Maybe any other QB wouldn’t have gotten the Rams to this record, nor made them the favorites to win to win the Super Bowl. More certainly, Goff will need to either have an out of this world final quarter to the season, or the other top QBs will have to fall apart.

Philip Rivers, QB Los Angeles Chargers

   The last QB in this race is a long-shot for now, but has an outside chance of wiping out a front-runner and boasts an incredibly similar profile to Drew Brees. The Chargers are a very good and complete team this season, as everyone knows but no one seems to care about. The national indifference to the Chargers is reasonable as they are stuck in the fast lane to a wild card bid thanks to a Week 1 loss at home to the Chiefs, but they’ve remained within striking distance. At one game behind, their biggest blunder was picking the Broncos to end a six-game winning streak against. Even if the Chargers got a potential record-tying win in Kansas City Week 15, they’ll still be in second in the West because of division winning percentage, barring a KC loss to Oakland. After beating the Steelers on Sunday night, if the Chargers can beat the Chiefs they will have a legitimate argument for being the best team in the AFC, and a real shot at earning that all-important first seed. Should the Chargers win the AFC West, it would become a lot more difficult for voters to pick Mahomes over Rivers. In fact, the last time a QB won MVP without winning his division was Peyton Manning in 2008. The, “if not now, then win?” effect would neutralize one of Brees’ biggest advantages. Should the Chargers win the AFC West, Rivers would not have to up his game much at all to post near-identical stats on the season as Brees and ride a recency bias to a blindside MVP win.

Todd Gurley, RB Saint Louis Rams

    Todd Gurley suffers from the same burden that most of these candidates. His offense is so good, that it would still be great with an average player at his position, which is why I see his campaign is doomed. Although nearly everyone would agree that Gurley is a better RB than Goff is a QB, I just can’t see a running back winning MVP in today’s NFL while a part of such a good team. Gurley's numbers He’s first in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and yards from scrimmage this season. However, his numbers aren’t really any better from last season and he still lost to the best QB in the league in 2017. Gurley’s numbers are still about on par for the best RB in the league any given season, meanwhile the bar has been raised for QBs by this year’s performances. There is a running back, however; that I think really has posted numbers that could earn him the MVP should the quarterbacks fall apart.


Ezekiel Elliott, RB Dallas Cowboys
    At a quick glance, Elliott has been nearly as good as Gurley. He’s rushed for 26 less yards and produced 77 less yards from scrimmage as Gurley. It’s quite astonishing to me that he hasn’t received more nominations from the media, especially since he wears a star on his helmet. Elliott's yards per touch numbers are worse, but that’s where I believe his value lies. The one thing Elliott has that Gurley doesn’t, is that his team needs him, and needs him badly. The Rams are a playoff team without Gurley, no doubt about it. The Cowboys were a laughing stock for  half the season, and it’s widely believed that Dak needs Zeke to keep defenses honest if he is to have any success throwing the ball. Before the trade for Amari Cooper, he was the only threat on Dallas’ offense beside linemen. Accordingly, Zeke has been trusted with seven more carries and receptions than Gurley this season. The Cowboys are 7-5 and will probably make the playoffs, with the biggest offensive contribution coming from their RB. The last RB to win the MVP was of course Adrian Peterson who accounted for 41.6% of the Vikings’ yards from scrimmage that season. Elliott hasn’t been nearly that good, but he has produced 37.0% of the Cowboys’ total offense. Compare that to Gurley, who has only accounted for 30.3% of the Rams’ total yardage. Zeke is just objectively more important to his team, and if the quarterbacks this year were to collectively blow it down the stretch, Elliot deserves serious MVP consideration. This Cowboys team is red-hot and needs Zeke like Jerry Jones needs media attention. I’m not sure how his season isn’t more publicized. He ticks all of the boxes.

The stats used in this article all come from the following sources
pro-football-refernce.com
footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

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Just how good can Michigan basketball be?

12/7/2018

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Picture
By: Alex Drain

At the outset of this season, I set my personal expectation for Michigan Basketball to be pretty modest. I expected roughly a top four NCAA Tournament seed and a sweet 16 appearance. I did not, however, seriously expect the Wolverines to be a national title contender. And if I had, I would not have expected it to be revealed in early December. After all, at this time last season, the eventual national runner-up Wolverines were languishing in uncertainty after losing to a not-very-good LSU team in Maui and choking a game away against Ohio State.


Yet defying expectations, Michigan basketball is currently 9-0 and #5 in the country and playing about as good as any team out there. They’ve already blown out blueblood programs like North Carolina and Villanova and dispatched conference foes Purdue and Northwestern. Their red hot success has already acquired recognition from national outlets, such as The Ringer, SB Nation, CBS Sports, and ESPN. It seems like everyone is noticing how good this team currently is, which brings us to the central question: just how good can this team be and are they a national title… favorite?

How good the team is currently

Pretty darn good.

Oh you want details?

Details:

They are currently the KenPom #4 team, but since we’re still just over a month into the season, some of those numbers are accounting for preseason, when Michigan was expected to be a fringe top 25 team and many of the other elite teams were not. Removing those preseason factors on BartTorvik.com’s T-Rank (a very similar metric) reveals Michigan to be the best team in the country, just narrowly ahead of Duke. Most notably, Michigan’s defense is suffocating, ranking #1 in KenPom for the whole season, as well as #1 in the T-Rank minus preseason expectations. Not just that, but Michigan’s defense is so much better than its peers: in both of those two metrics, the nation’s #2 defense is closer to #7 than to #1 Michigan. In the first nine games played, Michigan has gone up against two of the nation’s top ten offenses, Purdue and North Carolina, and held both to under a point per possession, as well as under 70 points total.

The defining characteristics of Michigan’s defense are not allowing many three point attempts, not fouling, and sporting the nation’s top 2 point field goal defense. It starts with point guard Zavier Simpson, who is unquestionably the nation’s best defensive point guard. He is the type of player who can just wipe whoever he’s guarding right off the map. He did it to Jalen Brunson in the national title game and Cassius Winston last year, and to Carsen Edwards and Coby White this year. There’s also Charles Matthews, an elite perimeter defender, and Jon Teske, a game-altering rim protector. Even Jordan Poole and Ignas Brazdeikis, who were not supposed to be good defensively, have been above-average on that end. Add it up and you have a defense that is currently the best, but has the chance to be one of the best in modern college history.

But outside the defense, the offense isn’t anything to complain about. While it’s not the break-neck unit of Michigan teams past, it is still either top 20 (KP) or top 30 (T-R), depending on which metric you use. Additionally, there’s decent evidence that two grizzly offensive games to start the season against cupcake opponents (Norfolk St. and Holy Cross) are weighing the numbers down, as since that point, Michigan’s adjusted offense has been top 10, to go with the still impenetrable defense. The team has good three point shooters (Poole, Brazdeikis, Brooks, and Livers), a deadly pick-and-roll combo (Simpson and Teske), and overall, just guys who know how to get buckets in big moments, whether it’s Charles Matthews’s silky turn-around jumpers, Jordan Poole’s tenacious drives, or Brazdeikis’s fearless playing style. The ability to get big shots helped stem the tide even as Tuesday’s game against Northwestern seemed to be slipping away.

Finally, there’s just the general impressiveness factor. Michigan isn’t just beating teams: by and large, they’re annihilating them. Despite playing a schedule that includes four “Quadrant 1” games, Michigan has won all nine games but one by at least 17 points, with an average margin of victory for the season of 19.2 points. They’ve led by at least 15 points at one juncture in every single game they’ve played so far.

Can they get better?

Sure. The voice of one of your elementary school teachers rattles in your head as you hear me say “there’s always room for improvement”. When I say that I mostly mean offensively, because the way the defense is right now is more than enough to win a national championship and it feels unrealistic to expect much improvement. Offensively there is room for growth. The game with Northwestern showcased potential issues that arise if teams stop guarding the offensively limited Zavier Simpson altogether. The Wolverines will have to find a solution to that and integrating Isaiah Livers into the offense more actively is something to look into.

The other area is depth. Last year’s Michigan team was pretty deep, often playing 9 guys in the rotation in a given game. This year’s team plays a tight seven. That’s been okay because the starting lineup gels so well together and is playing at such a high level that Michigan has been able to obliterate opponents with just that group alone. Furthermore because Michigan doesn’t foul, it allows them to avoid situations where they need to use more guys. But it won’t be enough as the season goes on, since the occasional foul-happy game will happen (like say the Northwestern affair) and because injuries are natural. Michigan’s bench currently consists of Brooks and Livers, as well as backup C Austin Davis and a whole bunch of freshmen. Livers and Brooks are fine but Davis’s appearances have been ghastly and have increased the load on Teske’s shoulders. At the bare minimum, the Wolverines need another big man to develop unless Davis magically turns it around, and another guard wouldn’t be bad. The most obvious options for those roles are freshmen Brandon Johns (PF) and David DeJulius (PG). Both of whom were pretty sought after recruits and haven’t looked bad in the little time we’ve seen of them. It is imperative for Michigan to use this next month of easier games (more on that in a minute) to bring those guys up to speed.

What the future holds and the national picture

Amazingly, the Wolverines are nearly certain to make it to January undefeated and have a very good chance to get to Martin Luther King weekend still unscathed. That’s because Michigan closes out December with four games against teams they have >96% win probabilities against, followed by an early January Big Ten slate that gives Michigan >80% win probability against every team they see until they head to Wisconsin on Jan. 19. If they made it to Wisconsin undefeated, they would be 17-0 and undoubtedly top three in the nation. The Big Ten is a much stronger conference in 2018-19 than it was the last few years and winning it is going to require beating some solid teams on the road in hostile environments. Torvik currently projects Michigan to finish 16-4 in the Big Ten (winning it by a solid three games) and thus 27-4 overall. Right now that feels like a pretty reasonable projection for how the regular season will play out. If that’s the case, then the Maize and Blue would have a very good chance of securing the program’s first #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament since 1993 and would instantly become a favorite to reach the Final Four.

But in terms of a national picture, where does this team stack up alongside some of the other national names? Right now with the way Michigan is playing, they have as good of a case for national #1 as anybody. Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Virginia seem to be the big four teams alongside Michigan making up the nation’s top tier, but no one is demolishing teams like the Wolverines are. This Michigan team is already special, but they have a very real chance to end March Madness as the last team standing.

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What to make of the Red Wings' Surprising Start

12/2/2018

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By: Alex Drain

The date was October 26 and the Detroit Red Wings were 1-7-2, dead last in the NHL. At that point in the very young NHL season, things were about going as expected for the boys in the winged wheel. After finishing in the bottom five a year ago and being projected to be the worst team in the NHL, a dreadful start to the season was not unusual. Since then, however, things have taken a strange turn, with the Red Wings going 11-4-1 in their last 16 games. So as I did back in June when the Detroit Tigers had an odd start to their season before reverting to the mean, I’m here to examine how things have gotten to this point, and what to expect going forward.

What’s going well for the Wings?

There have been three important storylines for this Detroit squad, but all fall under the overarching theme of youth. While the Red Wings have been dogged in the past (rightfully so) for being a team of aging vets, this year’s team has seen a transfer of power towards younger players, with 5 of the top 8 scorers on the team being age 24 or younger. The first storyline has been the continued improvement of Dylan Larkin. Hopefully in a few weeks I’ll have a full Dylan Larkin appreciation post but I can paraphrase how good he’s been. Larkin has 22 points in 26 games, but most importantly, he has 10 goals, which is significant given he had just 16 a year ago (16 goals and 47 assists in 2017-18 for Larkin). Larkin is affecting every game he plays in in far more ways than what can show up on the stat-sheet. Most indicative of his transformation is the way he’s driving possession like never before. Larkin’s corsi for % (indicates what percent of the game your team has the puck when you’re on the ice) is a career high 54%, compared to a 50.5% a year ago. More astonishing is that relative to his team: Larkin’s corsi relative is an incredible 10.1%, which ranks in the top 5 in the NHL among centers who have played at least 15 games. Larkin has become a leader, a goal scorer, a distributor, and a guy who plays both ends well. At just 22 years old, Larkin is now Detroit’s most indispensible player and the cornerstone of their rebuild, with a real chance to become a star in this league.

But beyond Larkin, the Red Wings have seen something even more important occur: the emergence of Dennis Cholowski. As I wrote about in the summer, the Red Wings had a lot of defensive prospects, but no one who looked like an impact player. Now, they appear to have someone who has a shot to be that. Their 2016 first round pick, Cholowski was considered a reach at the time but has since proven to be more promising than expected. At just 20 years old, Cholowski is already logging nearly 20 minutes a night and looks like one of the Red Wings’ top two defensemen already. With 4 goals and 8 assists in 24 games, Cholowski has drawn praise from local and national outlets alike. He’s got a long way to go in his development process before we can crown him a defensive centerpiece, but at long last, there’s a glimmer of hope on the Red Wings’ blue line.

The third factor that’s been a pleasure to watch is Andreas Athanasiou. Arguably the most vexing player on the Red Wings’ roster, AA is a player loaded with skill and speed, yet had his NHL career defined as being something of a conundrum. In his two NHL seasons with at least 64 games played, he never had more than 33 points nor 18 goals in a season. This season in just 22 games, he’s already got 11 goals and 5 assists for 16 points, putting him on pace for 36 goals and 53 points. While he’ll most definitely cool off, he’s flashing a more complete and polished side to his game that we’ve never seen before and quite frankly, it is tantalizing. If he could simply hit 25 goals this year, he would affirm himself as a central forward in the Detroit rebuilding plan, rather than his previous fringe status. Additionally, he’s shaken some of the notions about himself as simply an offensive cherry-picker, as his Corsi Relative is 2.2%. Besides Athanasiou, the Wings have gotten solid offensive showings from some of their other younger forwards, as Anthony Mantha continues to be Johan Franzen reincarnate, on pace for 30 goals but in the most frustratingly streaky of fashions, and Tyler Bertuzzi continues to be a pleasant surprise, with 9 goals and 7 assists in 26 games. I suppose I should also shout out Jimmy Howard, who is fulfilling the Sparky Anderson Contract Year Prophecy by posting one of the best save percentages of his career and giving the Wings a healthy trade chip, and the same can be said for Gustav Nyquist, who, while not scoring many goals, has been a tremendous playmaker and is racking up the assists.

What to expect going forward

No matter how much fun this mini-run has been, we can’t expect it to last. By account of most stats besides record, the Wings are not a good team. They’re 21st in goals scored per game and 25th in goals allowed per game. They don’t possess the puck much and a number of the wins on this streak of games have come in overtime or shootouts, which suggest an element of luck which is not replicable going forward. However, even if the team cools off in wins and losses, that doesn’t mean there won’t continue to be valuable growth. Seeing how Larkin, Mantha, Athanasiou, Bertuzzi, Cholowski, and rookie Michael Rasmussen play going forward is infinitely more important than whatever the team’s record may be.

Indeed, a best case scenario for the Red Wings is probably one where they continue to get good results from the younger players but the overall team record sags, keeping them close enough to the bottom that they can get a high draft pick in June and cash in for another elite talent. Despite this string of good games, Detroit is still only 6 points from last in the NHL and a correction to the mean could quickly deposit them back into the bottom-five cellar, the type of spot you want to be in to score a top draft pick.

Other things to watch in the near future is whether we see Filip Zadina, the Red Wings’ #1 prospect and the 6th overall pick in June’s draft, who was considered one of three best talents in that draft. The Red Wings have stashed Zadina in Grand Rapids, where he’s still learning the ropes of professional hockey. I wouldn’t expect to see much of Zadina this year, but in a post trade-deadline world where a spot opens up on the NHL roster, we could see a call-up. The same can be said for defenseman Filip Hronek, who played 6 games with Detroit at the start of the year before returning to Grand Rapids. Having just turned 21, there’s no rush to get Hronek back to Detroit, but if he continues to light up the AHL (13 points in 15 games), it’ll be awfully hard not to give him a longer look this season. Again, this is also contingent on trade deadline possibilities.

Speaking of which, the trade deadline will be another key factor to watch in the near future. Even though the team has been hot as of late, GM Ken Holland and the front office have not changed their outlook on the season according to sources, and remain very comfortable with the possibility of trading veterans at the deadline. The most prominent and likely name to go is Jimmy Howard. In the last year of his contract, Howard has been the starter (or co-starter) with the Red Wings for 10 seasons, and it will be hard to see Howard go. However, this is a rebuilding project and Howard is an asset given the way he’s been playing. While he is a 34 year-old rental, there are already several suitors mentioned, most notably the St. Louis Blues. The Red Wings are rumored to be holding out to try and get a first-round pick for Howard, which would be a coup quite frankly. There is also the reality that they may pull the trigger in the next few weeks, since you can never know how much longer Howard can keep up the stellar level of play he’s been at this season. Anything higher than a 3rd round pick or a solid prospect would be a good return for a veteran piece like Howard.

Gustav Nyquist is also likely to go, and while he won’t fetch as much as Tomas Tatar did a year ago, the Red Wings can certainly get a pick or two for him. Beyond those two, Mike Green is one to watch. Green was going to be dealt a year ago but his back injuries prevented him from leaving town and Detroit re-signed him in the offseason. He’s not a rental this year, but that could theoretically improve his value if someone really wanted him. He’s having a good offensive season and has been steady enough for a trade to make sense. Thomas Vanek will be on the trading block as well, but I’m not sure how much he could really fetch and whether the Red Wings would be willing to do that.

All in all, the season has largely been going according to plan, or at least how Red Wings fans hoped. There’s been continued growth in the young core and the team has been competitive, yet they’re also close enough to the bottom of the league to put them in a good spot for June. I don’t expect this run to last much longer, but the bigger storylines of this season could persist. And that is welcome news to Red Wings fans.
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