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2018 Hits and Misses

12/31/2018

0 Comments

 
By Evan Oesterle
​

It is finally the end of 2018. We got Cavs-Warriors pt. 4, have Alabama-Clemson pt. 4 on the clock, Tom Brady is still going strong, and this is the wild Dow Jones Industrial Average for the year:
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I could do a lot of 2018 wrap up articles: Michigan football collapses again, Michigan basketball is awesome, Detroit sports are terrible, my year recap, etc. But in an era when the media has, in my opinion, become worse than ever before, I think an accountability check is most fitting. I often criticize national news outlets for being one sided, and sports media for being generally terrible and having no accountability. So here goes nothing. I’m going to recap as many of my takes I’ve made this year that I remember by sport, and classify them as hits or misses.

College Football

Hit: Tim Drevno holding Michigan’s offense back
Jim Harbaugh finally got rid of Tim Drevno, and the results were definitely positive. Michigan’s offense went from 85th to 24th (per S&P+). Now to say that the jump is all due to Drevno would be ignorant. Shea Patterson was way better than any of the three quarterbacks that Michigan had in 2017, and Ed Warinner did wonders with the offensive line. But in a vacuum, the play-calling improved (still much room for improvement), and the offense was much better without Drevno. Good riddance. Now Harbaugh needs to get rid of Pep Hamilton and find a real OC.

Miss: Michigan vs Notre Dame; Michigan vs Ohio State; Michigan vs Florida
After being extremely pessimistic about Michigan football for most of the 2017 season, I regained optimism when Shea transferred and was ruled eligible. I was sure Michigan would win in South Bend. 24-17. They lost a close game to a Notre Dame team that went 12-0 before getting demolished in the Cotton Bowl (CFP Semifinal) against Clemson. At the time, that game actually reassured me. There were some negatives, for sure, but Michigan dominated the second half. Then they won 10 games in a row. OSU was 10-1 with a blowout loss to Purdue and close, ugly wins against Nebraska, MSU, and Maryland. I was once again sure Michigan would win. 62-39. On November 24th, I didn’t think it could get any worse. And then as the bowl game started coming closer, I was once again sure Michigan would win. 4-0 all time against Florida. They were mediocre offensively all year. Their defense was solid, but our offense was better. No Bush, Gary, Higdon, and JBB hurt, but they’d be fine. 41-15. I hope my brother (who just got admitted to U of M) has a better 4 years of Michigan football as a student attending the University than I have. No more Michigan football talk (besides the next part of this article) until after the NCAA Tournament.

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Harbaugh is now 0-4 against Ohio State. Image via WWMT Western Michigan.
Sub-miss: Michigan covering crossing routes against Ohio State
Austin Falco requested this, and I owned up to it. I thought Don Brown and Co. would watch film and 1. Stop OSU’s primary source of passing offense: crossing routes and screens 2. Pressure Haskins to make him uncomfortable like Penn State did. I was incorrect. Don Brown and Co. did none of the above. I am disgusted typing this. Rant time: Michigan football has one national championship since World War 2. Ohio State has dominated the ‘rivalry’ for nearly two decades (aka my entire life). Where do our expectations as fans come from? National championships in the early 1900s against Yale and the Chicago YMCA? Bo’s legendary OSU wins (11-9-1) and Rose Bowl losses (2-8)? Seriously, where do these standards come from? Let me know.

Miss: Michigan Football recruiting class finishing strong
After the OSU blowout, I thought the recruiting class would fall apart. Jim Harbaugh, Matt Dudek, and Don Brown proved me wrong. Dax Hill temporarily flipped to Alabama, and it looked like the class was in trouble. But Hill recommitted on the early signing day (although he allegedly silent recommited a week before) and Michigan won some other small battles to finish with a top 10 class. They didn’t get Zach Harrison from Columbus, Ohio, but the fact that it was even a battle says something. I guess.

Miss: Northwestern Football
After Northwestern followed up a season opening win against Purdue with losses to Duke, Akron, and Michigan, I felt it was safe to rule them out of the Big Ten West race. Boy was I wrong. They finished conference play 8-1 (only loss was the Michigan game), challenged Notre Dame, and lost to OSU by less than Michigan. Kudos to Pat Fitzgerald. He may have earned himself an NFL job. (Or he could stay and lead Clemson transfer and former 5-star Hunter Johnson to another Big Ten West title)

Hit: Michigan State Football
This one goes back farther than just the past 365 days. I have firmly believed that MSU was a mediocre football team for the last 3 years. They went 3-9 in 2016 and were one of the unluckiest teams in the country. They went 10-3 in 2017 and won games against Michigan and Penn State teams that were definitely better than them. Now finally in 2018, they went 7-5. I feel validated. I’ll let Mike Valenti finish this point for me (I’d give you a specific part to listen to, but it is 100% pure gold so I recommend listening to all of it):
Truly epic. The Dantonio country club is in full force. Actually though, how is Dave Warner still employed. We’ll come back to Valenti for more help later.

NFL


Hit: Sam Darnold and Lamar Jackson
I said before the draft that I wouldn’t touch any quarterback besides Sam Darnold and Lamar Jackson in the first round. Darnold led the NFL in QBR over the last 6 weeks of the season and Jackson led his team to the playoffs. While I was very wrong about one other rookie quarterback (I’ll talk about him later), I was definitely right about Darnold and Jackson. Darnold has a very bright future. The Jets have a bunch of cap space, a star safety in Jamal Adams, and a high draft pick. I anticipate their head coach opening being one of the most desirable this offseason. I don’t know if Jackson is the long term answer for Baltimore, but he had a great rookie year as teams struggled to defend the Ravens dynamic rushing attack. The Ravens went 6-1 after he took over as the starter, and even though he isn’t an excellent passer yet, at the end of the day winning football games is how most quarterbacks are measured (which is incorrect, stupid, and unfair but true).

Hit: Chicago Bears
Even before they traded for Khalil Mack, I thought the Bears would win the NFC North. Part of that was a lack of faith in the rest of the division: Lions hampered by Stafford’s contract (more on that later), Vikings hampered by Kirk Cousins’ contract, Aaron Rodgers sucking. They had a promising young quarterback in Mitch Trubisky, as well as a solid line, good backs in Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, and added some good pass catchers (Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Taylor Gabriel). But I was more excited about the defense. Safeties Eddie Jackson and Adrian Amos, edge rusher Leonard Floyd, linebacker Danny Trevathan, and corners Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara were enough for me to be sold. Add Khalil Mack to the equation and what do you get? NFC North Champs who get to host a playoff game against the reigning champions this weekend. Their ceiling is probably the NFC Championship game though.

Miss: Baker Mayfield
I deserve the Colin Cowherd treatment from Baker. I thought the Browns wasted their pick on Johnny Manziel 2.0. Yikes. Mayfield is a baller and led the Browns to a 7-8-1 record. They’re gonna be a real problem next year. They’ve got good talent on defense, and Nick Chubb is a great running back, but Mayfield is the real difference maker here. The Browns went 5-3 after Hue Jackson was fired, with the losses coming against 3 playoff teams/division winners: the Chiefs, Texans, and Ravens. With a whole bunch of cap space and a finally competent coaching staff and quarterback, watch out. Believeland is back, and not for Lebron this time.
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Baker Mayfield proved Colin Cowherd, me, and many others wrong this season while breaking the rookie touchdown pass record (27). Image via Oklahoma Channel 4 News.
Miss: Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks
These might deserve to be separate points, but I’m at 3 pages and not close to being halfway done, so I need to start being more brief. I thought the Seahawks were toast. They haven’t had an offensive line in a couple years. The whole Legion of Boom + Michael Bennett + Jimmy Graham all said bye. Kudos to Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson for making me eat my words. I also thought Dak got exposed last year without Elliot and the Cowboys were in for a rough season. Their young defense put together an excellent season (what’s up Jourdan Lewis and Taco Charlton?) led by draft steal Jaylon Smith, and Dak and Zeke rebounded. Whether the Cowboys team is morally comfortable (Elliott and Defensive End Randy Gregory both have off the field issues) is a different conversation for a different day, but this team is fun to watch on the field. These teams will me Saturday in Dallas, and the winner will likely head to New Orleans and lose to the Saints, but it’s safe to say that both had solid seasons.

Sub-hit: Amari Cooper Trade
I received heavy criticism for liking the Cowboys trade. Weird that a 24-year old former Alabama receiver is actually a stud when put in the right situation. Who could've guessed? Oh, I did. I’m trying not to gloat to much on my hits, because some of these misses are humbling, but I got a lot of crap for this one, so it had to happen.

Hit: Patrick Mahomes
I’ve been high on Mahomes since his Texas Tech days. But this one is a special shoutout to my dad and brother. After the first game of the season, I said Mahomes was already the best QB in the league. They told me it was a ridiculous hot take and joked about it for months. Yikes. This might be my biggest hit of all of them this year because I was so sure and so right.
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Patrick Mahomes is the likely NFL MVP after an incredible season where he threw for 50 touchdowns and led the Chiefs to the 1 seed in the AFC. Image via USA Today.
Hit: Matthew Stafford contract and quarterback contracts in general
If I made this take this year, it would be my best. But I made it a long time ago. When Stafford was due for a contract extension, I said I wanted the Lions to let him walk. Almost everyone I know thought I was insane. Let me be clear: a team could win a Super Bowl with Matthew Stafford as its starting QB. What a team can’t do is win a Super Bowl with Matthew Stafford’s contract. Before I get into the details of this, I don’t begrudge Stafford for getting paid. But what I can say is he doesn’t care about winning and the ‘back’ and ‘lack of talent’ around him excuses are garbage. Mike Valenti and I share a very strong opinion on Stafford (more gold; if you’re a Stafford slappie, don’t listen; if you live in reality, please listen):
There will be more Valenti later, don’t worry. But I need to finish my point, because this is a take that arose this year. I’ve really gone down a rabbit hole with quarterback salaries, but I am so convinced my theory is correct that I have to share it: In 1994, Steve Young’s 49ers won the Super Bowl while paying him 13.1% of the salary cap. A quarterback can’t be paid more than that (a higher % of the salary cap) and win the Super Bowl. Proof:
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As displayed, the average salary of a QB to win the Super Bowl since Young is under 7%. What’s the explanation for this? NFL teams have 53 man rosters. If you pay one player 13%, that leaves 87% for the other 52 combined. This year, that would mean paying the other 52 players an average of $2.83 million. You simply can’t build an elite roster with that little remaining money. It’s no wonder then, that the 6 highest paid QBs teams all missed the playoffs this year:

Aaron Rodgers: $33.5M
Matt Ryan: $30M
Kirk Cousins: $28M
Jimmy Garoppolo: $27.5M (Injured for most of the season)
Matthew Stafford: $27M
Derek Carr: $25M

Their teams combined for 31 total wins (an average of less than 6 for each of those teams), and only Cousins’ Vikings were still alive by week 17. Yikes.

One more point on this, there is basically no correlation between Quarterback salary and team wins over the last 5 seasons:
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What does this mean? That a lot of winning in the NFL has to do with luck. Tom Brady taking a hometown discount? That’s helped the Patriots sustain their dynasty for as long as they have. Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Mitch Trubisky, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson. This group of seven quarterbacks (along with Jimmy Garoppolo, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold) are widely regarded as the NFL’s next group of star quarterbacks. But all 7 are in the playoffs. 6 of them won their division this season, and the one that didn’t, Carson Wentz, was injured for half the year. What do they all have in common besides being in the playoffs? Rookie contracts. Getting elite quarterback play on a rookie scale deal allows teams to construct elite rosters around them. The Rams (Aaron Donald) and Chiefs (Justin Houston) have the two highest paid defensive players in the NFL and can afford it because of those rookie contracts for Mahomes and Goff. So what’s the key to quarterbacks and winning in the NFL? Hitting on your draft picks and getting lucky.

College Basketball

Hit: John Beilein > Tom Izzo
This is another take that goes back farther than 2018. To be clear, Izzo’s body of work is better than Beilein’s. He won a national championship and has produced more NBA stars. But Izzo has lost more than a step. Three consecutive years of losing during the first weekend of the tournament? Yikes. Three straight losses to Beilein? Yikes. A draft bust in Deyonta Davis? Yikes. Wasting Jaren Jackson who looks like a steal for the Grizzlies after being taken 4th overall? YIKES. Mike Valenti, take it away:
The flipside of this is that John Beilein has been incredible for the Wolverines. He’s done what Jim Harbaugh, Mark Dantonio, and Tom Izzo have failed to do: adapt. After years of his teams being known for offense efficiency and sharp-shooting, Beilein brought in Billy Donlon 2 seasons ago to be the defensive coordinator. Donlon has since left for Northwestern (who has also improved defensively since his arrival), but in 2017 under Donlon, Michigan improved from 50th overall and 92nd in adjusted defensive efficiency to 20th overall and 69th defensively. They lost a heartbreaker in the Sweet 16 and Donlon left for Northwestern. So what did Coach B do? He went and got Luke Yaklich. Home run hire. Michigan finished 2018 7th overall and 3rd(!!!) in defensive efficiency, and made it all the way to the National Championship game before falling to one of the 3 best college basketball teams of my life in Villanova. They’re currently 4th overall and 4th in defensive efficiency as well as being one of only 4 undefeated teams in Division 1. Congrats John, you figured out your weakness, and adapted. Can you please teach Harbaugh how to do the same?

Miss: Virginia NCAA Tournament Run
When the brackets came out on Selection Sunday last year, I thought Michigan had a great chance at a Final Four run. I thought MSU got screwed by having Duke and Kansas in their region, but Tom Izzo made sure they didn’t have to play any of them (see the Valenti video for more). What I was most sure of: Virginia had a cakewalk to San Antonio. I was sure that Tony Bennett would overcome his tournament struggles and make his first national semifinal appearance. I literally could not have been more wrong. Bennett’s Virginia squad wasn’t just the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed ever, they got blown out by a team that look like a 16 seed one game later against Kansas State. All credit to UMBC, but Tony Bennett, what the hell?
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UMBC was the first 16 seed to ever upset a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Image via Sports Illustrated.
NBA (I’m rapid firing these since I’ve written way, way too much)

Hit: Kawhi Leonard still being a top 5 player. Sorry San Antonio. Could the Raptors actually win the East?

Miss: Russell Westbrook being a superstar. I even said he was better than Kevin Durant one time. Ouch.

Hit: Luka Doncic being the best player in the 2018 draft and having superstar potential.

Miss: Ben Simmons blossoming into a superstar and the 76ers making a deep playoff run last season.

Hit: The Blake trade ruining the Pistons organization even more than it already was. I hate Tom Gores. He’s the second worst owner in the league behind Dan Gilbert.

Hit: The Rockets seriously challenging the Warriors last season. If Chris Paul doesn’t pull his hamstring, the Rockets win the series.  (Chris Paul's contract has destroyed the Rockets)​
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Chris Paul injured his hamstring late in game 5 against the Warriors. Image via Yahoo! Sports.
Everything else

Miss: Elon Musk

Mid-summer, I staunchly defended Elon Musk in our WCBN Sports GroupMe (if you know me well, you know that I, along with many others, spend an unhealthy amount of time debating sports in that GroupMe). This one is specifically for Dalton Potocki, Morris Fabri, Jeremy Parks, and Nate Sorensen, and let me tell you, it hurts to write this. While I maintain that Musk has accomplished much in his career and is brilliant, he has acted like an absolute idiot this year. Congrats Elon, you made me look like an idiot for defending you too. I won’t get into the specifics, but yikes.

Hit: WCBN Sports
If you’ve made it this far in the article, props to you. I barely made it this far writing. But I have to call out one last ‘hit’ for the year. This is definitely the softest paragraph I’ll ever write for this website, and I know I’m going to take a lot of flak for it. When I officially took over for JP back when he graduated in the spring, I had an ambitious set of goals that I wanted to accomplish for WCBN Sports. While they haven’t all been hit through one semester of my reign as supreme leader (I am a firm believer in setting loftier goals than are capable of being met as a motivator), I do want to say I am extremely proud of what has been done. We had 4 hours of radio airtime per week on 88.3 WCBN-FM-Ann Arbor (The Daily Sports Report 6-6:30 pm M-T and a Friday night slot from 7-9 pm that was used for a variety of sports broadcasts and extended DSRs), three additional football broadcasts on-air, covered football, volleyball, men’s soccer, men’s and women’s basketball, and hockey to varying degrees, conducted player interviews with members of the volleyball, men’s and women’s basketball, and baseball teams, expanded again in size, increased listenership across the board, and much more that can’t properly be put into words. This wouldn’t have been possible without former Executive Directors Jeremy Parks and David Carlson, the seniors who taught me how to fish (not in the literal sense) my freshman year including Leo Blavin and Dalton Potocki (who took me on my first road trip to Indiana), Morris Fabri, and Kevin Cline, and especially the executive board who not only tolerates me but has put in many hours of their own time to make everything possible: Alex Drain, Alex Kremer, Alex Hsi (yes we have three Alex’s), Daniel Thompson, Nick Hornburg, Nate Sorensen, Jack Molino, Max Brill, Austin Falco, and Emily Herard. If I could thank every individual member of WCBN Sports for their contributions over my first 2.5 years, I would, but I’m already running way over my page and word targets for this article. Lastly, I’d like to thank our generous donors (who I won’t name in this article for privacy and professional reasons) who make everything we do possible. Our professional grade equipment, uniforms, Soundcloud account, travel and this website would not be possible without all of them. I have 1.5 years left to accomplish a plethora of further goals, but I am so proud of what has already been done by our group to this day. So thank you, to all of you have contributed to making WCBN Sports into what it is today: definitely a hit.
Picture
Alex Drain and Lucas Vargas broadcasted all the way through a lightning delay early in the game against Michigan State. Despite bitter cold and heavy wind, Alex and Lucas did not take a second off. Meanwhile, MSU student radio was nowhere to be found.
All opinions are my own. Stats compiled from ESPN, Kenpom, S&P+, USA Today, and Fox Sports.

Feel free to disagree with anything I wrote in the comments or on Twitter (@E____money).

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