We’ll start by discussing the basics of fantasy football and how it works. At the very basic level fantasy football is an interactive way to build your fantasy team of players (hence the name) by drafting players in a league of 8-12 in a normal draft or an auction draft. A normal draft (called a snake draft) has each owner picking a player in the first round, switching the draft order in the second, and continuing to switch the order repeatedly until the draft is done. A snake draft is the most common way to draft a fantasy team. An auction consists of having a certain amount of “money” that you can spend on players until your money runs out and you have a full team. The auction draft borrows from the concept of a salary cap, where owners must manage their spending responsibly in order to build a balanced roster. Regardless of how you draft, this article will give you relevant tips that can help you build your best fantasy team.
Once you draft your team and set your starting lineup (a lineup in which you can make substitutions on a week-by-week basis), it’s now time to watch your team rack up points. In most fantasy leagues there are 2 types of scoring systems, standard scoring and PPR. Standard scoring basically means that your players will be rewarded for accumulating yards and scoring touchdowns. For example, your standard scoring for a QB is 1 point for every 25 yards thrown, 4 points for a touchdown pass, -2 points for an interception, 1 point for every 10 yards rushed, and 6 points for every rushing touchdown. As you can probably guess from its name, the standard scoring system is the most common type of scoring in fantasy football. The second type of scoring is what is known as PPR, adding extra points for every reception while otherwise adhering to the standard format.. While this might not seem like a big deal, it actually alters the entire way you should be drafting your team. It means that running backs that can catch passes (such as Theo Riddick of the Detroit Lions) are much more valuable even though they may not score as many touchdowns or rush for as many yards as other running backs. It also means that receivers who catch more balls are draftable even if they don’t put up as many touchdowns as others. While there are other types of fantasy scoring, these are the main 2 you will run into when drafting your team.
Tips to Drafting Your Best Possible Roster
I’ve read through article after article looking for the best tips and tricks to get the most out of your roster. However, I’ve found that the more you draft, the more you’ll notice tendencies that allow you to get ahead of your opponents. Here are a few tips that I use when drafting. The biggest mistake I see people make is drafting defenses/kickers too early. The nice thing about (most) fantasy leagues is that you don’t have to draft individual defenders and instead draft team defenses as a package (as well as their special teams counterpart). I personally believe that you shouldn’t draft a defense and a kicker until the final 2 rounds of the draft. The reason I shy away from kickers is simply because they aren’t that valuable. They’re only as good as their offense and all score about the same amount of points. Let’s take a look at last year’s numbers to support this theory. The top kicker last year, Stephen Gostkowski of the Patriots, scored 153 points with an average of 9.6 points/week. Assuming you’re in a 10-team league with standard scoring, the 10th best kicker of last year was Brandon McManus of the Broncos. McManus raked in 127 points with an average of 7.9/week. This means that the difference between the top kicker and the bottom in a 10-man league is less than 2 points/week. Those 2 points aren’t worth a higher draft slot because of the value you’ll be getting by drafting a running back/wide receiver for your bench for when bye weeks come around or the injury bug hits your starting lineup. The same is to be said for defense/special teams picks. Picking a defense is a little trickier because you aren’t just drafting a defense; you’re drafting the team’s entire schedule. The difference between the top defense (the Denver Broncos) and the 10th best defense (the St. Louis Rams) is 4 points per week. Once again, those points aren’t worth the value you’ll be getting for a solid RB/WR.
This brings us to our next topic, strength of schedule. This is an important point to understand because this is who your offensive players will be facing off against. Each team’s defense is good against certain types of offenses, so we’ll start off with the best and worst pass defenses for the upcoming season. The following projections for easiest/toughest schedules per position are courtesy of Fantasy Draftbook Football Magazine. They look at a variety of categories to pick the best and worst defenses against the QB, RB, and WR including how they performed in 2015, any new offseason acquisitions/releases, new coaching staff or new defensive alignment, and computer projections of games in the upcoming season. For more information please visit footballdiehards.com. The top 3 defenses against the pass in 2016 are the Broncos, Seahawks, and Bengals, respectively, while the bottom 3 defenses against the pass are the Eagles, Giants, and the Saints as the worst team against defending QBs. One name to keep an eye on is Tony Romo of the Dallas Cowboys. He statistically has the easiest schedule of every QB in the league. The main reason is because he will be facing the Giants (31st-ranked against opposing QBs), Eagles (30th), and Redskins (24th) twice as well as the Browns (27th), Steelers (26th), and the Bears (23rd). We can then turn our attention to run defense. Three backs to keep an eye on for the upcoming fantasy season are Thomas Rawls of the Seahawks, Doug Martin of the Buccaneers, and Ezekiel Elliot of the Cowboys. Finally let’s look at some receivers with a favorable 2016 schedule. 3 names to draft highly Markus Wheaton of the Steelers, A.J. Green of the Bengals, and Dez Bryant of the Cowboys. While it is difficult to look at each player’s schedule in the middle of the draft, do your best highlight specific players whose schedules look favorable.
Moving on with our tips for the best fantasy team, we get to something I follow religiously, don’t draft rookies. This is not to say that there aren’t any rookies worth taking in your draft, there have been many rookies in the past that test this theory. However, the reason I stay away from rookies is because they aren’t tested. The hype that is built around rookies in the NFL is because of the monster numbers they put up in college. They are taken highly because they are electric and untested. Let’s look at last year’s Ameer Abdullah hype train. Abdullah was owned in 84% in ESPN standard leagues, yet finished with 141 points, good for 23rd in the NFL. I get it; Ezekiel Elliot out of Ohio State is a sexy option at running back. I know that I just advocated his easy 2016 schedule. However my suggestion is to steer clear of any and all rookies, as the risk does not outweigh the small reward you will get from an over performing rookie.
My next tip for drafting is to stay away from QBs early. I know what you’re all thinking, I’m crazy, right? If you look at the point totals from quarterbacks they score way more points than any other position, yet I’m telling you to stay far away from these guys. Allow me to explain. The reason I say to stay clear of QBs early is similar to why you must avoid D/ST and kickers until the last rounds: there is similar value across the board of QBs compared to running backs and receivers. Here are some numbers to prove that point: The top fantasy scoring QB was Carolina’s Cam Newton with 389 points (24/week). The 12th place fantasy QB was San Diego’s Philip Rivers with 285 points (18/week). This means that the 12th ranked QB scored 73% of the points the top ranked QB raked in. With this in mind let’s move to the ever-so-scarce running back position. The top ranked RB last year was Atlanta’s Devonta Freeman with 262 points (16/week), while the 12th ranked RB was Indianapolis’ Frank Gore with 168 points (11/week). Gore scored 64% of what Freeman scored in Atlanta. This should show you that while quarterbacks do score the most points, the difference between the top guy and the middle-of-the-road guys isn’t as great as with running backs. To push the point even further, the top wide receiver of last year Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown with 295 points (18/week) while the 12th ranked WR was the New York Jets’ Eric Decker with 193 points (12/week). Eric Decker’s point total comes out to 65% of Brown’s 295. In conclusion, running backs are the most important to draft early because the value dies out long before QBs will (don’t worry, unless you’re in a 32 owner league you will be getting a starting QB!) Draft backs and receivers early and often, and steer clear of the early-round QBs.
My final piece of advice for this season of fantasy football is to avoid drafting high if possible. If you’ve ever seen the hit show “The League”, you might recall scenes of them doing weird contests to decide the first overall pick. While it’s true that, the first overall pick[CP1] will get you Antonio Brown, it means that you won’t be picking again until the last pick of the second draft round in a snake draft. Likewise, in an auction draft, spending highly on top players will leave your team bereft of depth when you must spend minimal cash to fill out your team. In most leagues, you will have your pick order randomized. However, if possible, stay away from the top 4 picks and get yourself somewhere in the middle.
The 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Football Player Rankings
Ok, so you’ve sat through an entire article (and obviously haven’t skipped anything) and now you’ve finally come to what you’ve been looking for this whole time, the 2016 fantasy football player rankings. This ranking system should not be followed religiously, and instead should be used to as a guide to break a tie between two players you’re highly interested in. Let me say it again… Don’t follow this list religiously, or you will have a bad team and will have very little fun drafting. Take some risks, find some sleepers, and feel good with the roster you’ve drafted. These rankings were made by comparing 4 different “professional” top 100s, and averaging each player’s rank together to make a list of the top 100 players. They are based on the rankings of ESPN’s Matthew Berry, the staff at NFL.com, Fox Sports’ Ryan Fowler, and SI’s Michael Beller. The number next to their name is the average position they were ranked in the top 100 lists, players were given the score ‘101’ if they did not appear in one or more of the rankings. So without further ado, here are your top 100 players for the upcoming season:
1. Antonio Brown (1.00)
2. Odell Beckahm Jr. (2.50)
3. Julio Jones (3.00)
4. Todd Gurley (4.25)
5. Adrian Peterson (6.00)
6. DeAndre Hopkins (7.50)
7. David Johnson (7.50)
8. Ezekiel Elliot (9.25)
9. A.J. Green (10.00)
10. Dez Bryant (10.25)
11. Rob Gronkowski (11.00)
12. Lamar Miller (11.50)
13. Jordy Nelson (13.50)
14. Devonta Freeman (14.25)
15. Allen Robinson (14.50)
16. Jamaal Charles (17.25)
17. Mike Evans (20.00)
18. Alshon Jeffrey (20.25)
19. Brandon Marshall (20.50)
20. Le’Veon Bell (20.75)
21. Doug Martin (21.00)
22. Eddie Lacy (22.00)
23. LeSean McCoy (22.75)
24. Mark Ingram (24.50)
25. Keenan Allen (26.25)
26. Brandin Cooks (27.50)
27. Brandin Cooks (27.50)
28. Sammy Watkins (28.25)
29. Cam Newton (29.25)
30. Amari Cooper (29.75)
31. C.J. Anderson (30.25)
32. Carlos Hyde (33.50)
33. Matt Forte (33.50)
34. Aaron Rodgers (35.00)
35. T.Y. Hilton (37.00)
36. Jordan Reed (37.50)
37. Julian Edelman (38.75)
38. Jonathan Stewart (40.75)
39. Eric Decker (41.25)
40. Thomas Rawls (41.50)
41. Randall Cobb (42.00)
42. Jarvis Landry (42.50)
43. Russell Wilson (43.00)
44. Michael Floyd (44.50)
45. Kelvin Benjamin (44.75)
46. Greg Olsen (44.75)
47. Jeremy Maclin (45.25)
48. Golden Tate (45.75)
49. Latavius Murray (49.25)
50. Doug Baldwin (49.75)
51. Donte Moncrief (54.50)
52. Jeremy Hill (54.75)
53. Emmanuel Sanders (58.00)
54. Ryan Mathews (58.25)
55. Jeremy Langford (58.75)
56. Andrew Luck (59.00)
57. Matt Jones (59.25)
58. Ben Roethlisberger (60.50)
59. DeMarco Murray (61.00)
60. Drew Brees (62.00)
61. Larry Fitzgerald (62.75)
62. Melvin Gordon (63.25)
63. Giovani Bernard (63.25)
64. Duke Johnson Jr. (64.75)
65. Dion Lewis (65.00)
66. DeSean Jackson (66.00)
67. Arian Foster (67.50)
68. Carson Palmer (69.00)
69. DeVante Parker (69.00)
70. Rashad Jennings (70.50)
71. John Brown (70.75)
72. Frank Gore (70.75)
73. Danny Woodhead (71.25)
74. Jordan Matthews (73.50)
75. Allen Hurns (74.75)
76. Delanie Walker (76.50)
77. Tyler Eifert (77.25)
78. Travis Kelce (77.50)
79. Eli Manning (80.25)
80. T.J Yeldon (81.00)
81. Ameer Abdullah (81.00)
82. Blake Bortles (81.75)
83. Chris Ivory (81.75)
84. Michael Crabtree (82.00)
85. Tom Brady (83.50)
86. Kevin White (87.25)
87. Coby Fleener (88.25)
88. Marvin Jones (88.75)
89. DeAngelo Williams (89.00)
90. Justin Forsett (90.25)
91. Sterling Shepard (91.50)
92. Tyler Lockett (91.75)
93. Torrey Smith (91.75)
94. Stefon Diggs (92.25)
95. Josh Gordon (94.50)
96. Philip Rivers (95.75)
97. Willie Snead (100.00)
98. Vincent Jackson (100.25)
99. Tavon Austin (100.50)
100. Laquon Treadwell (100.75)
Sleeper Picks for the Late Rounds
For those of you not aware of what a ‘sleeper’ is, you probably would think it is tied to somebody you’d want to stay away from. Actually, the definition of a sleeper in fantasy is “a player who will far surpass his average draft position in standard leagues for the 2016 season” (ESPN). I’ve decided to be generous and give away my sleeper picks for the 4 main positions in fantasy football. Let’s start with the coveted quarterback sleeper. In my leagues, I’m looking to draft Titans’ second-year QB Marcus Mariota. As a rookie he averaged 18 points per week in games he actually played (that would put him at 10th overall). As you might expect, a QB who can run (like the #1 2016 QB Cam Newton) is extra valuable because of all the rushing yards/TDs they can amass in addition to their arm (hence why Cam Newton was last year’s top scoring QB by a long shot). Considering their top two offensive threats are at the running back position, DeMarco Murray and rookie Derrick Henry, Mariota should be left alone to run rampant on defenses all season long. Next up, the running back position. I’ll give this sleeper tag to former Wisconsin Badger and current San Diego Chargers RB Melvin Gordon. While last year he was a round 3-4 selection who never found the end zone and got hurt in the final two weeks of the season., the Chargers’ offensive line suffered from injuries last year, and even then, Gordon avoided 34 tackles for 9th best in the NFL. The Chargers have done next-to-nothing in the offseason to indicate they are moving away from Gordon, except drafting J.J. Watt’s brother Derek in the 6th round of this year’s draft. Look for Gordon to be available in the later rounds of your draft. Let’s move on to wide receiver. My sleeper pick at this position goes to Torrey Smith of the 49ers. Chip Kelly is the new offensive coordinator in San Francisco, and his offenses have been historically successful. Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson both played under him for one year and set career highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Although last year wasn’t his best, Smith still found the end zone 11 times and finished in the top-20 at receiver. Your last 2 rounds should be dedicated to your defense and your kicker, but your third-to-last selection would be a good time to take a risk on Smith. We finally go to our final sleeper position, the tight end. For this selection I will be going outside the box to Oakland Raiders’ TE Clive Walford. In the final 11 weeks of last season, Walford was on the field for 47% of the Raiders’ offensive plays, meaning he will be at the top of the depth chart in Oakland. With Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree both soaking up the attention of opposing defenses, Walford should be able to get open relatively easily. Walford is a hot redzone target, tying the amount of redzone touchdowns with Cooper and Crabtree at 2, despite far fewer opportunities. At 6’4” and 251 pounds, Walford should be a juicy target for QB Derek Carr.
I will close this article with the most important piece of advice I can give you heading in the 2016 season: don’t follow any rules. Don’t follow any specific set of rules that I or anyone else will tell you leading up to your draft. The pieces of advice I’ve given you in this article are not set in stone. If you take a QB in the second round I’m not going to come at you through your computer. If you use a first round pick on the Cowboys’ rookie RB Ezekiel Elliot, that is totally ok! Use what I’ve spelled out in this article as a set of guidelines to help you draft the best lineup that you can. Fantasy football is called fantasy for a reason, it’s your fantasy team that you draft and nobody (not even me!) can tell you how to draft your team. So go out into the fantasy world, draft your best lineup, and most importantly, have fun.
- Chris